陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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1. Storytelling phase: there are disagreements, valuations are low, risks are high, and potential benefits are also high;
2. Story realization phase = main upward wave, if the story fails, it reverts to its original state;
3. Maturity phase, the story is fulfilled, asymmetric advantages disappear, and only industry BETA can be captured.
Which phase do $NVDA $MU $LITE $QCOM $CRCL $MSTR belong to?
Notes:
1. Low participation in US stocks, hold onto your spot positions and don't mess around, especially if you're holding particularly shady stocks;
2. Can't play contracts in the crypto space recently, hold your spot positions, the overall rise isn't finished yet;
3. If you touch gold, silver, or oil again, you're an idiot;
4. If this wave yields considerable overall profits, remember to allocate some altcoin spot positions next wave, avoid chasing altcoins with contracts as it will be harder to play.
That's all for now.
陈桂林谈交易
This repayment market, I can't help but be reckless, losing an average of 500U per day recently, and it's been a week of losses.
Brother Chun was right, little by little adds up, 10 times 500U is 5000U.
Then, damn it, I finally found the root cause: it turns out I didn't withdraw the profit from the recent tactical position order!
——————On the importance of physical methods.
This repayment market, I can't help but be reckless, losing an average of 500U per day recently, and it's been a week of losses.
Brother Chun was right, little by little adds up, 10 times 500U is 5000U.
Then, damn it, I finally found the root cause: it turns out I didn't withdraw the profit from the recent tactical position order!
——————On the importance of physical methods.
Chen Guilin's Trading Notes:
September 30, 2026
1. Preface
A week ago, I already said that the crypto market has shifted from a simple mode to a difficult mode. At that time, some altcoins were still soaring, so many people were unconvinced... But I have always said that the hardest part of playing altcoins is choosing the right coin.
Difficult mode: It doesn't necessarily mean a crash, but a mode where neither shorting nor longing feels comfortable, and you can't make money either way.
If your stop loss is set too low, it triggers frequently; if set too high, it causes a small one-sided move. You don't get good entry points, and once you close a position, it immediately pulls back. It plays with your emotions and damages your position. The best way to deal with this mode is three words: don't participate; but easier said than done, it takes practice (including me).
2. Market Conditions
1. Bitcoin has not yet replicated the violent correction after the daily divergence top at the beginning of 2023, but you should have a contingency plan for that scenario;
2. Objectively, bulls at this level are neither attacking nor retreating but trying to digest selling pressure through sideways movement. Compared to 2023, the biggest difference now is that Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 25,000 then, whereas now it has risen from 57,000 to 87,000. Yes, the biggest difference is price and market cap; a larger market cap means stronger stability and lower volatility;
3. Bitcoin's sideways movement here means no clear direction chosen. There is disagreement between bulls and bears; bulls don't charge, bears don't dare to charge either. Both sides are small forces battling, resulting in a narrow range oscillation aimed at triggering stop losses on short-term high-leverage contracts, with back-and-forth moves;
4. Several possible daily-level scenarios:
① Replicating 2023: With negative news, bulls choose to temporarily avoid confrontation. Early bulls retreat, letting new bulls take some profit. Price drops 10-15% from the peak toward the cost zone;
② No negative news but positive news instead, Bitcoin breaks above previous highs. However, if subsequent capital momentum is insufficient, the daily indicators still show divergence, which accumulates risk, and accumulated risk will eventually be released;
③ Choosing to digest sideways above 80,000 with narrow oscillations to eliminate daily indicator divergence. When indicators enter a neutral zone, it may mark the start of the next rise. This is the best scenario, exchanging time for space, protecting the cost line from new entries while reassuring the market to follow.
Note: Regardless of Bitcoin's path, altcoins will experience much larger adjustments.
Mid-term outlook: Bitcoin has already confirmed an impulsive wave from the bottom. According to the principle that impulsive waves don't exist alone, any adjustment now is just a mid-term correction; a larger-scale rise will follow.
The first wave of the bull market aims to push the weekly MACD above the zero line.
Oil prices have plummeted, the probability of an interest rate hike in October has decreased, yet the stock market and crypto space show little reaction. Why?
Perhaps the market is just nervously teased; let's wait for the data to settle over the next couple of days and see if oil prices can consistently stay below 90.
Confirmed good data, combined with a stable decline in oil prices, might be the engine for a new round of upward momentum.
PS: It’s important to note that different markets are at different levels, so their performances may vary.
TELL ME！Is the current market in hard mode?
陈桂林谈交易
I think the crypto space is in hard mode because I mainly trade contracts of major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP;
Some friends think the crypto space is currently in giveaway mode, probably because they hold tokens like Near and Uni, which is not contradictory.
Given my current trading system and skill level, swimming around in altcoins carries a higher risk of drowning than making money; so I choose a conservative approach.
Finally, my view that Bitcoin is at the end of the first major upward phase of the overall rally remains unchanged.
This legendary stock, I don't even know if it's real or fake tonight.
But no matter true or false, it doesn't matter anymore. I've been watching it for two months, no matter how much it fluctuates, I'm already used to it. It's all good, all fine, doesn't matter.
$LITE
陈桂林谈交易
I've been watching this stock for over a month, and in crypto terms, it feels like strong control of the supply;
98% of the chips held, 2% circulating, you get it?
$LITE
No problem.
What annoys me the most is some gamblers' catchphrase: "All in! If I lose everything, I'll just deliver takeout, at worst I'll work for another ten years!"
Damn, do you think being a delivery person is easy? You can't even handle trading properly, how can you deliver takeout well?
diudidu
Here's a harsh truth:
After losing your job, going down to street vending, food delivery, or driving for ride-hailing services—is it really easier?
You think the floor is empty.
But when you lie down, you realize the floor is full of people.
It's better to strive upwards, to reach for the ceiling of life; that path is much broader.
Talking about altcoins:
1. For altcoins like the one circled in red in the picture, it falls into the category of consolidation. An altcoin that has risen 800%, a 20% pullback can only be considered consolidation;
2. Getting in at such a point can only be considered a small opportunity, similar to a minor stop on a bus route, a chance to get on during a temporary stop, not a major station, let alone a stage endpoint;
3. The big opportunities in altcoins usually test human nature. For example, during the last big Bitcoin surge from 60k to 80k, $ZEC surged 250%, then news came out causing a dump, dropping directly 60%, followed by more than two months of sideways consolidation. This is when human nature and faith are truly tested. See Figure 1.
4. Another example is the current hot favorite $NEAR. Bitcoin started a pulse-like rally on August 17, and by September 15, Bitcoin was in a consolidation phase after a rally. Until then, NEAR was still performing quite mediocrely. I remember NEAR believers in the group cursing it because it only rose 60%, didn’t even break the box range, worse than a dog. At that time, the market was bullish with Robinhood and BSC; until one bullish candle changed the faith. See Figure 2.
So what I want to say is: when playing altcoins, don’t underestimate the brutal nature of altcoins; nor overestimate your holding capacity;
Looking back, it all seems divine because it’s already over; but the real fact is, most of the time we are in the middle of it.
You say you have diamond hands and that’s it. Back when privacy coins were hot: ZEC was the number one, Stark also wanted to be number two and had a rally. I’m just saying, what if you held Stark?
This is just an example; there are many types of altcoins.
