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Cato_KT
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宏观决定钱贵部贵
微观决定你要不要为这个估值买单
技术开发的边界决定了企业能否无限扩张
周末几位AI大佬的“暂停”,只是暂停了未来人工智能企业的过度扩张,但是并没有损害整个人工智能叙事
于此同时,宏观让现在的钱变贵了,投资者为估值谨慎买单,所以短期股价出现下挫属于常规现象,并不是叙事的崩塌,所以不用恐慌
真正的考验并不是现在,而是Q3季度的财报阶段,Q3财报投资者需要考虑一点,当前沿人工资能发展放缓,此前的资本开支多久可以得到回报,且这个回报周期是否因为“暂停”而延期
所以,现在恐慌,有点杞人忧天,目前阶段是宏观带来的杀估值,而并非是叙事,注意区分!#人工智能的暂停 #PPI、CPI公布后,多家机构上调9月加息预期
AI development pause — if we look beyond the surface, the sudden emergence of AGI intelligence brakes is actually thought-provoking
If we set aside the surface, the sudden emergence of AGI intelligent brakes is actually thought-provoking. The main possibilities I can think of are speculation: 1. The overly surreal view is that AI technology has already begun to elevate humanity's dimensions, but once it does, the problems will be enormous, so now is not the best time. This also includes the security issues people mentioned, with hidden risks of loss of control behind the security system. 2. AGI has already developed to meet the current global progress. Next, AI breakthroughs will enter a "hidden line." #财报观察员: Oracle's AI cloud revenue increased by 121%. We can refer to the US-Russia Cold War period, whether it was space technology or internet technology at the time, where breakthroughs were mostly concentrated in national strategic projects and even the military. Only after the Cold War ended did cutting-edge general-purpose technologies directly enter civilians. Has this stage already reached this point? 3. The macro level determines whether money is expensive; the micro level determines whether a company is worth the valuation; the technological boundaries determine whether the company can continue to expand indefinitely. Does the current pause mean that short-term enterprise expansion has reached a critical point? Next, we need to consider how to strengthen the foundation rather than expand blindly. So the next step is not to depend on what everyone says, but on what they do. We can focus on a few signals to verify: a. Whether leading AI model companies have collectively stopped model training, and the significance behind this pause is b. Whether AI can independently develop AI, and whether AI researchers are being heavily replaced—this is another signal that AGI has reached a mature tipping point. c. Computing power investment
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