Let's briefly summarize and share a framework for the macro signals from the past week. Although it seems like a whirlwind of changes, from Ajian's perspective, there is actually only one line: Oil prices → Inflation → Interest rates → Long-term bonds → Risk assets Monday: Global bond markets began to experience severe volatility; Tuesday: Japan's 10-year government bond yield broke through 3%; Wednesday: Fed Governor Waller said if inflation continues to decline, a pause in rate hikes in September will be considered; Thursday: The market started to reprice a Fed pause; Friday: US nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000, far exceeding expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike back up; Saturday: The US-Iran conflict escalated further, pushing oil prices back toward $96 All these news variables seem unrelated, but in fact, they all influence each other. For example, today, the apparent escalation in conflict actually signals renewed energy supply risks. This means oil prices may rise further, inflation may become more stubborn, the Fed may find it harder to cut rates, and long-term bond yields may find it harder to decline, so risk asset valuations led by these factors will need to readjust. See, this is the correct way to interpret macro signals: news is the first layer, variables the second, transmission chains the third, and finally asset prices. If in the future you see a piece of news but don't know how it relates to your investments, follow this chain and ask: What has changed? Who will this change affect? How long will the impact last? Has the market already priced this in? If you can answer these four questions, congratulations—you have basically established your own framework and no longer need others to tell you whether the news is bullish or bearish. Finally, here’s some homework for everyone: Global money market funds saw net inflows of about $46.1 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow since early August; meanwhile, US equity funds experienced outflows. Friends are welcome to try breaking down this news using the above framework in the comments section.

Lately, when creating content, I’ve been asked more and more often: "What if I’m wrong?" In the past, my first reaction when writing was to find information supporting my point of view. Now, I deliberately look for counter-evidence to better adjust my original judgment. This is actually a very simple but important habit for investing and trading, because the most dangerous moment in the market is never when you’re wrong in your judgment, but when you know you’re wrong yet still try hard to prove you’re right. Anyone who’s not a beginner trader should understand what I mean. Trading is so counterintuitive. People naturally like to seek confirmation because it makes them feel comfortable, but the market won’t move in your direction just because you want to feel comfortable. A truly successful trader, or anyone who succeeds in any industry, should be able to calmly and even courageously admit failure. I believe that being able to stick to take-profit and stop-loss rules and other position management during your trading process doesn’t mean you lack the courage to take risks; on the contrary, it shows you have already established your own judgment framework.

After Coldcard caused over $100 million in $BTC losses due to an entropy vulnerability in the past two months, it has started replenishing dealer inventory in batches, and the devices are still on sale. To prevent some friends from forgetting past lessons, Agent specially brings up this matter again: a hardware wallet is not just a USB device, but a user's trust in randomness, signatures, firmware, and the supply chain. If you want to purchase during the restocking phase after such a security incident, it is strongly recommended that you thoroughly research whether the vulnerability has been fully fixed, how affected users are compensated, and whether new devices have changed production and audit processes

A Jian wrote a few days ago that because Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, $ARB has received a major boost, but today's 40-50% increase is still quite exaggerated. I think a large part of the reason comes from the intense debate between the founders of Arbitrum and Solana over the transaction fee model of Robinhood Chain. After all, the spectacle of two big players rolling up their sleeves and personally confronting each other is always popular with the public 😂 The focus of this controversy is whether blockchain infrastructure should serve as a revenue engine at the top of the application or if fees should flow to validators to maintain network security. This is not a simple dispute between chains but the issue of "where value ultimately resides," which A Jian has often analyzed before. Currently, Robinhood Chain has high daily transaction volume and fees, but whether the fees stay on the application chain, Arbitrum Orbit, Ethereum, or ultimately with the token holders will lead to different value capture for assets. And at least for now, it does seem that $ARB captures the vast majority or even all of the revenue

Yesterday, the conflict between the US and Iran escalated again. The US Central Command stated that US forces attacked three Iranian crude oil tankers, and Iran had previously fired missiles at US warships. When such news breaks out, it's obvious that the most direct result is a rise in oil prices; Brent crude briefly surpassed $96. Ajian doesn't want to repeat the same old talk; I already mentioned yesterday that the market is almost desensitized to this. This article mainly teaches everyone how to analyze why war news often affects the stock market. First, you need to know that war does not directly affect the stock market. It first impacts oil, then oil affects inflation, inflation affects the Fed, and finally, it transmits to risk assets. There is a whole chain in between, which is: War → Energy → Inflation → Interest Rates → Valuation. If a war does not affect energy supply, the market reaction is actually very limited. You can recall if this is the case; the event itself is not necessarily important, but the transmission path is what matters. Of course, this is just the most basic and simplified deduction. In reality, even if oil prices rise, it does not necessarily immediately lead to inflation. There are at least these intermediaries: inventory, transportation, refining, consumer demand, exchange rates, and policies. That's all, DYOR

$ZEC price has reached $1,170, with a daily increase of over 15%. This is certainly supported by inflows from the Grayscale ETF and a rise in mining hash rate. For more detailed Zcash analysis, friends can search multiple posts on my homepage. Today, I mainly want to highlight a point often overlooked in this surge: a whale holding for over two years transferred 22,840 ZEC to Binance after the price broke $1,000, with potential profits of $22M. Ajian believes ZEC is undergoing two types of financialization simultaneously: on one hand, ETFs are bringing privacy coins into securities accounts; on the other, old whales are bringing multi-fold profits back to exchanges. This cannot be explained simply as bullish or bearish; the term "chip exchange" might be more appropriate. Don't assume it will definitely sell, nor assume it won't. So if you want to chase this high, when dealing with such high-growth assets, you should simultaneously observe new funds and old chips, such as whether ETF inflows can cover old addresses cashing out, before deciding if it's worth bearing the volatility.

Hyperliquid repurchased and burned 9,730 $HYPE in the past 24 hours, worth approximately $829.5K, with a cumulative burn amount reaching 48.42M, about 4.84% of the supply. This is a good signal of value capture, but Ajian suggests still tracking the repurchase frequency, funding sources, and the proportion of total fees, as it cannot be directly regarded as cash flow. Only when repurchases and real income grow together is the value capture more credible

$BTC is currently fluctuating around $80K, appearing lukewarm, but looking at derivatives: perpetual open interest is about $54.73B, 24h volume about $62.27B, funding rate is positive, and the long-short ratio is about 0.96. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled about $26.46M, with longs at $5.68M and shorts at $20.78M. It's clear that shorts have already started to retreat. If the ETF funds inflowing in recent days are responsible for supporting the price at a higher level, then leveraged funds are responsible for amplifying the gains, making the market increasingly sensitive. So although the current price has moved away from the cost zone at the end of August, the upcoming PPI and CPI next week are very likely to cause the market to reprice rate cuts, leading to a drop in BTC.

At Sun Moon Lake in Taichung, I once encountered a grandma selling something, talking nonstop for more than ten minutes. She said she went up the mountain before dawn to find this kind of fruit, then it went through more than ten manual processes to make it. She claimed you can't find it anywhere else but Sun Moon Lake, so I spent a lot of money to buy one of the last few. Then just now at a street stall on Haikou Qilou Road, I saw a whole bunch of them, thirty-one strings 🤡 in various colors and models 🤡. The key thing is, the owner saw me taking photos and inexplicably said this thing originally comes from Africa, and I 🤔

DefiLlama and Forgd jointly launched the Universal Token Ratings (UTR) system, which rates tokens based on disclosure, performance, and related operational metrics. $UNI is currently the only token to receive an AAA rating, with a score of 60.80. Meanwhile, Uniswap's active addresses on Robinhood Chain have reached 1.2M. Although DeFi usage growth does not necessarily equate to token value capture, it certainly makes one look forward to a new Defi summer.