还是那个王先生
还是那个王先生
星球创作者📝 | 合约爆仓常客💥 | 多币种持有者💎 | 无情交易员❄️
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Mr. Wang Talks Crypto | 2026.10.03
Busy all day today, the article is a bit late today. Today's highlights: BTC is hovering around 84.5k, ZEC fell below 1,340, CT new coin surged then pulled back. Stablecoin market cap has shrunk by $14 billion since May, liquidity recovery is still insufficient. $BTC Current price 84,573, down 0.88%, falling from 87,238 down to 83,884. Stablecoin market cap has shrunk by $14 billion since May, liquidity recovery remains insufficient, funds are still tight. Resistance above at 84,669, support below at 84,558. Those wanting to get in should wait for a pullback near 84,000 before moving, if it breaks below 83,500 then exit. 📉 RSI6 is at 38, weak but not collapsed, low volume sideways waiting for direction, don't rush to buy. $ZEC Current price 1,318, down 3.94%, falling from 1,412 down to 1,271. Grayscale's ZCSH recorded weekly outflows amid privacy pool concerns, once ETF funds withdraw the price can't hold. Resistance above at 1,320, support below at 1,311. Hold your positions and watch, those wanting to get in should wait for a pullback near 1,280 before entering, exit if it breaks below 1,250. ⚠️ Dual pressure from ETF outflows + privacy pool concerns, don't catch the falling knife short term, wait for funds to return. $CT Current price 0.5124, down 0.52%, falling from a high of 0.6126 down to 0.4810. After the new coin listing, it first pumped then dumped, volume still at 145 million, indicating intense speculation. Resistance above at 0.55
$BTC surged then fell back, my short position is still stuck and uncomfortable 👊
Bitcoin touched 84912 today then slipped back to 84827, down 0.58% in 24 hours. RSI6 surged to 79, the upper Bollinger band at 84817 was pierced but didn’t hold, MACD red bars remain but clearly weakening.
My short position is still stuck; I originally bet on a surge then a fall, but it’s hovering around 84800 without dropping. The Bollinger middle band at 84658 is short-term support; if it holds, I have to wait it out, if it breaks, there’s hope. The previous high at 84912 is the stop-loss reference; if it surges above that, I’ll have to consider cutting losses.
VanEck says Bitcoin is in the early stage of a bull market, targeting gold’s market cap long-term, the news is positive, so short pressure is significant.
Brothers, do you have short positions? Can you still hold at this level? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励
-14.30%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 20:48
Nonfarm payroll data exploded. Only 29,000 jobs were added in September, while the market expected 85,000, nearly three times the difference. Even worse, the previous two months were revised down by a total of 60,000, with July directly turning into a decrease of 10,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, hourly wages increased by only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, all signaling a cooling down.
The market reaction was very direct: the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 24% before the data to below 18%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield once plunged 10 basis points. Jefferson and Williams hinted a few days ago that there was no rush, and this data essentially confirmed their stance. But the bond market then made a V-shaped reversal, with the 10-year yield pulling back above 5.30% by midday—the short end is trading "no rate hike," while the long end is still worried about inflation and fiscal deficits.
$BTC leveraged this momentum to surge above 87,000, rising about 2% in 24 hours, with shorts getting liquidated again. The logic is simple: rate hike pressure is temporarily eased, so liquidity-sensitive assets can breathe a sigh of relief. But don’t celebrate too early; the long-end US Treasuries are still hanging above 5%, and the October CPI is the real hurdle. Nonfarm payrolls saved the short term but not the long end.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
-11.81%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 19:13
$BTC short position is still holding, opened a few days ago, no new positions opened today. Mark price 85039, floating loss of 17%, a bit better than a few days ago, but still not out of the red. Just hanging on, waiting to see when it can turn around. Screenshot attached.
In this market, surviving is a victory. Did you hold on today? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #波动雷达：币种异动观察
-17.00%
Snapshot at 03 Oct 2026, 00:42
Which red line in your trading rules must never be crossed?
My red line: No contracts, no leverage
After years in the crypto circle, I've drawn many lines for myself, but the one I strictly adhere to is never touching contracts or leverage.
The reason is simple: if spot prices drop, you still hold the coins; at worst, you play dead and wait for the next bull market. If a contract blows up, it's truly gone, no chance to recover. When $BTC fell from 60,000 to 16,000, those holding spot gritted their teeth and held on, while those with 10x long contracts were wiped out long ago.
I've seen too many people make some money on spot, think they're geniuses, then turn to contracts. They start with small positions and win; add more and win again; finally go all-in, and a single spike wipes them out, losing both principal and profits to the market.
The cruelest thing about leverage isn't just losing money, it's getting addicted. Those who made quick money no longer care about the small fluctuations in spot. But this market punishes all arrogance—the more you think you understand it, the harder it slaps you in the face.
So I'd rather earn less and avoid this line. Even if $ETH and $BTC skyrocket, I won't envy it. Staying alive means there's a next round.
What's your red line? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Nonfarm payrolls are at 8:30 tonight, expected between 84,000 and 85,000, significantly slowing down compared to August's 162,000. But ADP gave a figure of 90,000 first, stronger than expected, so the market itself is uncertain about which way nonfarm payrolls will go.
Jefferson's speech yesterday was quite crucial, directly saying "no need to rush to act," with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping from 70% to below 30%. His exact words were "My colleagues and I need more time to assess," which translates to: let's wait and see. Williams had a similar tone before; with these two key figures aligned, it's basically clear that no action will be taken in October.
But don't overlook one detail. Jefferson also said inflation risks "lean to the upside," with energy and AI demand pushing prices. So it's not that hikes are off, just postponed, and the December hike is still on the dot plot.
$BTC has rebounded these past two days following the decline in US Treasury yields, climbing back from 83,000 to above 85,000, reaching as high as 86,600. The Fear & Greed Index is at 72, still in the greed zone. If tonight's nonfarm payrolls come in below 80,000, the October rate hike expectations will cool further, giving Bitcoin reason to push higher; if it exceeds 90,000, US Treasury yields will rebound, and the 85,000 level will be at risk. My short position is still open; tonight will decide fate. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
-28.30%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 14:18
$BTC surged, and my short position is still holding strong 👊
BTC climbed from 83490 to 86914 today, up nearly 3%, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band at 86544. The MACD red bars are expanding, RSI6 shot up to 81.34, seriously overbought. This rally is sharp and fierce, clearly a short squeeze.
My short position is still stuck and hasn't exited. I was betting on a pullback, but it shot up like a rocket. 86914 is the high for this wave; with RSI so high, a short-term rebound could happen anytime, but the trend is already strong. Holding on further means going against the market. I cut half my position to stop loss and will see if 86000 can hold. If it doesn't, I'll close all.
On the news front, IMF approved $139 million funding to El Salvador, warming market sentiment and making it harder for shorts.
Brothers, anyone else trapped in shorts like me? Let's unite in the comments, tell me if you cut losses or are still holding?🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
-35.85%
Snapshot at 02 Oct 2026, 12:56
Mr. Wang Talks Crypto | 2026.10.02
Today's highlights: Bitcoin surged to 84.9k, ZEC dropped to 1,340, and the HYPE team unlocked tokens causing a sell-off. The IMF approved a $139 million fund for El Salvador but agreed to limit further Bitcoin accumulation, forcing a brake on national-level adoption. $BTC Bitcoin current price is 84,924, up 0.89%, rising from 83,168 to 85,266. The IMF approved $139 million for El Salvador on the condition of restricting further Bitcoin accumulation, indicating regulatory pressure on sovereign adoption paths. Resistance is at 84,931, support at 84,485; those wanting to enter should wait for a pullback near 84,000 before moving, and exit if it breaks below 83,500. 📈 RSI6 reached 73, indicating short-term overheating; wait for a correction before entering. $ZEC ZEC current price is 1,340, down 2.78%, falling from 1,450. ETF funds continue to flow out, combined with bounty-related exploits and aggressive shorting, ZEC faces significant pressure. Resistance is at 1,344, support at 1,319; holders should hold and observe, those wanting to enter should wait for a pullback near 1,300 before entering, and exit if it breaks below 1,260. ⚠️ After a big rise, negative factors cluster; avoid catching the falling knife short-term, wait for a full drop before reconsidering. $HYPE HYPE current price is 87.91, up 0.46%, but has fallen from 89.5 to 86.4. Hyperliquid Labs unlocked 3.75 million tokens, and the team's distribution pressure directly suppressed the rebound. Resistance is at 88.09, support at
$CT surged 31% in one day, and I stubbornly opened a small short position betting on a pullback 👊
CT climbed from 0.3423 to 0.53 today, a single-day surge of 31.58%, with a 24-hour trading volume of 117 million. The new coin listing combined with TGE benefits caused funds to rush in wildly. RSI6 hit 74, the upper Bollinger band at 0.5348 was pierced, clearly indicating short-term overheating.
Seeing it stall at 0.53, I opened a small short position around 0.5195, betting on a pullback after the spike. But with this new coin plus TGE driving bullish sentiment strongly, the risk of topping against the trend is very high. My stop loss is just before the previous high at 0.53; if it breaks, I’ll admit defeat immediately.
This is purely a small position trial and error; I’ll exit once I get a pullback.
Brothers, would you dare to short such a new coin after a sharp rally? Can I wait for a pullback on this trade? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
+5.23%
Snapshot at 01 Oct 2026, 21:27
The US core PCE in August rose 3.0% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected, and the month-on-month increase of 0.2% was also below expectations. Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped directly from 50% to 38%, and the probability of holding steady returned to 62%. Goldman Sachs then pushed the next rate hike expectation from October to December.
However, the Federal Reserve has not yet backed down. Kashkari clearly stated that inflation is still too high and that another rate hike is needed within the year. The cooling of the PCE is a good thing, but 3% is still far from the 2% target, and no one dares to say the task is complete.
Now the focus is entirely on tonight's nonfarm payrolls. ADP gave a signal first: private sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, higher than expected and much stronger than the miserable 36,000 in August. ADP's chief economist directly called it "a strong report."
So the situation is very conflicted: inflation is cooling, employment is recovering. For the Federal Reserve, this is even more complicated—the inflation data gives a reason to pause, but the employment data shows the economy does not need rescue. If tonight's nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations again, a rate hike in December is basically locked in. $BTC has been hovering around 83,000 these past two days, waiting for this number. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
+0.37%
Snapshot at 01 Oct 2026, 21:21