The global bond market has been a bit "EMO" lately. It's not because bonds suddenly became mystical, but because the market has started collectively worrying about three things: Prices still can't be suppressed, Interest rates still won't come down, The cost of debt is getting more expensive. The US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.8%, and the government bond yields of the UK, Germany, and Japan have also risen together. Japan's 10-year government bond yield even broke through 3%, a level not seen in nearly 30 years. The logic behind this is simple: Rising yields = falling bond prices. Bonds being sold off = the market demands higher returns. The market demanding higher returns = money becomes more expensive. Why the sudden change? First, oil prices are rising, reigniting inflation expectations. Second, governments around the world are heavily indebted, increasing fiscal pressure. Third, expectations of a rate hike in September are heating up again, so no one dares to bet on easing prematurely. So this is not just "bond market volatility." What it truly affects is the pricing of all assets. When the risk-free rate rises, high-valuation stocks suffer first; Corporate financing costs increase, squeezing profit margins; Highly indebted economies will also feel the pressure; Even long-term bonds themselves will be hit as rates continue to rise. Ordinary investors should not just focus on index ups and downs next. I will focus on three things: 1. Whether the US 10-year Treasury yield will really break through 5%; 2. How long oil prices can keep rising and whether inflation will rebound; 3. Whether the major central banks in September will truly raise rates or are just trying to scare the market. Rising oil prices -> inflation rises -> rate hike expectations heat up -> global bonds sold off -> funding costs rise -> high-valuation assets under pressure. At this time, the most important thing is not to guess tomorrow's ups and downs, but to check which assets in your portfolio rely on stories and which rely on cash flow.

For ordinary people learning investment, it ultimately comes down to one thing: Can you develop your own system? Learning about macroeconomics, interest rates, inflation, and asset allocation beforehand is to help you understand why the market moves; but in the end, it still comes down to companies, industries, financial reports, and your own investment decisions. Otherwise, it’s easy to fall into a state where: You’ve read a lot about macroeconomics but still don’t know what to buy; You know many concepts but still can’t hold your positions; You scroll through the news every day but end up being driven by emotions. So the last two steps of the radar are crucial: First, understand the company. Don’t just chase hot topics right away; first ask four questions: Is the industry space still large? Does this company have a moat? Are the revenue, profit, and cash flow in the financial reports healthy? Is the current valuation expensive or cheap, and where exactly is it expensive or cheap? True long-term investment isn’t about who surges today, but about who can continuously make money, expand advantages, and survive cycles. Index funds are essentially a basket of companies. You don’t have to heavily hold individual stocks, but you must understand companies. Because only by understanding companies can you understand why the index rises long-term and know whether a certain drop is risk release or a breakdown of logic. Second, build your own investment system. What ordinary people fear most is not making one wrong call, but acting on impulse every time. Wanting to chase when prices rise, wanting to cut losses when prices fall; Feeling anxious when others show profits, doubting when the market pulls back; Feeling enlightened in a bull market, feeling investment is meaningless in a bear market. So in the end, you must write down the rules: What is my return target? How much drawdown can I tolerate? Which assets are my long-term core holdings? When do I invest regularly, when do I add positions, when do I reduce positions? If I’m wrong, what are my stop-loss or adjustment rules? This system doesn’t need to be complicated but must be stable. In the end, investing is not about who has more information, but who makes fewer mistakes, survives longer, and stays calm at critical moments. Macro determines direction, asset allocation determines win rate, company research determines quality, and the investment system determines whether you can truly keep your money.

The fourth step of the ordinary person's economic radar is not about learning more knowledge, but about starting to manage oneself. In the end, the hardest part of investing is not understanding the macroeconomy or financial reports, but understanding your own reactions. Wanting to chase when prices rise, Wanting to run when prices fall, Regretting selling too early, Holding on stubbornly after buying at a high price, Feeling anxious when others make money, Questioning life when you lose money yourself. These are not individual problems; this is human nature. Therefore, the fifth stage to improve is investment psychology and risk control. You need to know that the most costly mistakes in the market are often not about getting the direction wrong once, but about emotions taking over the system. Selling long-term assets out of panic. Chasing high-valued assets because of FOMO. Clinging stubbornly to a cost basis because of anchoring. Mistaking luck for ability due to overconfidence. Only seeing information that supports your own judgment because of confirmation bias. A truly mature investor is not one without emotions, but one who has rules to limit emotions. Ask 10 questions before buying: Why am I buying? How long do I plan to hold? What role does it play in my portfolio? What is the maximum drawdown I can accept? Is the valuation reasonable? Has the fundamental changed? Does the macro environment support it? Are there alternative choices? What if I am wrong? What are the stop-loss or rebalancing rules? These questions may seem troublesome, but they help you make fewer impulsive decisions. The sixth stage is to broaden your perspective to Chinese assets and the global cycle. Because ordinary people cannot just look at one market. China has its own policy cycle, real estate cycle, and credit cycle. The U.S. has its own inflation cycle, interest rate cycle, and dollar cycle. Globally, there are big variables like deglobalization, supply chain restructuring, energy, military industry, and semiconductors. Even within tech stocks, Chinese tech, U.S. tech, and Hong Kong tech have different underlying pricing logics. A-shares focus on policy, liquidity, and risk appetite. Hong Kong stocks focus on dollar liquidity, China's fundamentals, and foreign capital sentiment. U.S. stocks focus on earnings, interest rates, and tech capital expenditure. Gold focuses on real interest rates and monetary credit. BTC focuses on liquidity, risk appetite, and cyclical sentiment. When you put these variables on one chart, investing is no longer about guessing price movements, but about judging: which cycle we are in now, which assets have advantages, and which risks are accumulating. Ordinary people don't need to predict the market every day. But they must know what they are betting on. Don't bet on direction, bet on cycles. Don't bet on the future, manage risk. Don't chase hot spots, build a system. In the end, you will find that what the economic radar truly trains is not "market-watching ability," but long-term survival ability.

Why has the U.S. stock market been rising continuously? 38 times. 7,799 points. This is the historical highest closing price of the S&P 500 on August 13, 2026. A widely circulated explanation recently attributes this to three reasons: Global capital has nowhere else to go, the U.S. fiscal system is deeply tied to the stock market, and the AI capital expenditure story is not yet finished. The combination of these three forms a self-reinforcing closed loop. This framework is very elegant. So much so that I shared it after my first read. On the second read, I checked each number cited. The direction is right, but the numbers are wrong. There are four cracks, precisely in the most critical places. 1. First, clarify the correct parts These three points are not nonsense; each has empirical support. Global capital is indeed flowing into the U.S. The overseas revenue proportion of S&P 500 constituent companies is about 28% (Goldman Sachs, July 2026), and about 39% for the Nasdaq 100. What you buy is not a U.S. company, but a company collecting money globally. The U.S. fiscal system is indeed tied to asset prices. In 2025, capital gains tax contributed about 10% of personal income tax revenue, approximately $270 billion, equivalent to 0.9% of GDP. The richest 1% paid about 46% of all personal income tax. Personal income tax accounts for about 52% of federal revenue (Fiscal Year 2026). If stock prices fall, the tax base collapses. AI money is indeed still being poured in. But the scale is much larger than that claim — not $200 billion, but $388 billion. This is the combined capital expenditure of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta in 2025; the 2026 guidance is $602 billion to $630 billion. After correcting the numbers, this point is even stronger. Nearly three times the difference, the conclusion changes from "the story is not finished" to "the money has already been spent." 2. However, reasons do not equal predictions The problem is not the direction, but the way it is used. The fundamental logic behind the long-term rise of U.S. stocks is only one: corporate profits are growing. Capital flows, fiscal ties, and industry narratives are levers that amplify this logic, not the logic itself. And levers amplify both rises and falls. Each of these three levers now shows cracks. Without evidence, I rely on data. First, the claim "capital has no other choice" has been made before. If global capital truly had nowhere else to go and could only flood into dollar assets, bond yields should not rise. But they have risen. On September 1, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.792%, a 19-month high; the 30-year yield was 5.243%. On the same day, the Bloomberg Global Government Bond Yield Index rose to 3.72%, the highest since mid-2008; the 10-year Japanese bond yield hit 3% for the first time since 1996. Rising yields mean someone is selling. This is not "no choice," but "you have to pay more to attract buyers." A more counterintuitive figure: the S&P 500's overseas revenue share of 28% sounds high, but the peak in 2012 was 34%. The idea that "U.S. companies are making money worldwide" has weakened over the past fourteen years, not strengthened. Second, and most critically: the direction is reversed. That explanation directly infers "the U.S. fiscal system tied to the stock market" means "the Fed will provide a backstop." This inference skips a step. And that step is now moving in the opposite direction. The federal funds rate is currently 3.50%–3.75%. The July FOMC vote was 9 to 3 to hold steady — three votes favored an immediate hike. On August 28, Waller's speech at Jackson Hole was interpreted as a strong hawkish signal; in the following two trading days, the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.75%, a new high since January 2025. Regarding the September 16 meeting: On August 26, CME FedWatch priced "no change" at 63.9%; after Waller's speech until August 31, "rate hike" flipped to 65.4%; by September 1, the same market showed two readings simultaneously: 30.6% and 66%. Goldman Sachs said a hike was "extremely unlikely," while another group of traders said it was very likely. Within a week, the market's collective judgment flipped twice; on the same day, two readings differed by a factor of two. I won't guess a third answer here. What I want to say is: if you include "the Fed will provide a backstop" as a buying reason, you are making a short-term prediction. And a probability that flips twice in a week cannot support a long-term position. Third, what you are buying is not "the U.S. economy." Seven giants account for about 33.9% of the S&P 500 weight; the top ten total about 38%–40%. The historical average is 24%, and the previous high in 1970 was 28%. Breadth is also narrowing. On September 1, 2026, the S&P 500 fell only 0.3%, but nearly 75% of constituent stocks closed lower that day. The index rising does not mean stocks are rising. 3. We need to clarify a cognitive misconception That is: mistaking "the reason for the rise" as "the reason for continued rise." 38 new highs are results that have already happened; they do not constitute the basis for the 39th. The more elegant a retrospective framework is, the more it can create the illusion "I understand it, so I know the next step." There is no logical connection between these two sentences. On April 7, 2025, the S&P 500 hit the year's low of 4,835.04. Almost everyone said "this time is really different." Sixteen months later, 7,798.99. $100,000 became $161,000. Those who said "wait for a pullback to buy" ended up waiting until March 30, 2026, at 6,316.91 — 30.6% more expensive than the "bottom" they initially thought was too expensive to buy. The pullback you wait for is more expensive than the bottom you missed. This is the most expensive lesson I have learned in nine years of dollar-cost averaging VOO. 4. My approach Years have passed, and my answer hasn't changed a word: I don't predict. I dollar-cost average. VOO's expense ratio is 0.03%, with a ten-year annualized return of 15.4% (Morningstar, as of 2026-08-27). These two numbers are known and verifiable, not relying on anyone's judgment about next month. CAPE at 39.1 times, top ten weight at 38%, the Fed might hike next week — these are all true. They won't make me sell out; they only make me avoid borrowing, avoid concentration, and avoid increasing positions just because of a well-written article. Closed loops will eventually break; I agree with that. But no one can know the timing of the break in advance. And the money you lose by avoiding it is certain; the decline you avoid is uncertain. The simplest path: build positions on things that don't rely on predictions, then live long enough to let compounding work. Time is wealth; start dollar-cost averaging today!