#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, Will the Rate Hike Land? Once the rate hike lands, the real show begins. In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise rates by 25 basis points, with probabilities soaring to 87% to 92%. But don’t just focus on whether they hike or not; the wording from Walsh after the meeting will be the real market trigger. Three scenarios, three paths 1. Hawkish rate hike (most likely): Raise by 25, and Walsh signals continued tightening with an upward revision of the dot plot. U.S. stocks pull back, the dollar strengthens, and BTC faces pressure, potentially dropping to 76,000 or even 72,000. Historical data shows that within three months after the first rate hike in a cycle, the S&P 500 usually faces pressure and short-term volatility intensifies. 2. Dovish rate hike: Raise rates but hint at a "one-time calibration," without committing to a follow-up path. The market interprets this as bad news fully priced in, risk assets rebound, and BTC is expected to challenge above 80,000 again. UBS reviewed 16 rate hike cycles since 1954, showing the S&P 500 on average rose 10.8% in the 12 months following the first hike. 3. No change (very unlikely): If this happens, the market will experience severe volatility, the Fed’s credibility will be damaged, and it could trigger even greater panic. It is recommended to take a light position and observe before the results come out, then act once Walsh’s speech becomes clear. If hawkish signals appear, wait for BTC to stabilize before considering going long; if dovish signals are confirmed, follow on the right side. Don’t bet on direction, let the market make the first move. $BTC $ETH $ZEC