TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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Alright, currently the probability of an interest rate hike in October has been pushed down to 37.1%. It looks like on Friday when the big non-farm payrolls come out, it will be pushed down a bit more.
I estimate the pace will probably stay around 30% for a week or two, then some other event/speech/data will come out to pull it back up. Otherwise, if the consensus is too high before the FOMC, the Fed will have no face to save.
Then before the meeting on 10.26, they might push it down again or keep it around a 50-50 split near 50% to scare the market, and this month will just pass by.
Awesome, awesome, changing the caliber really works
PCE annual rate directly below the expected and previous value of 3.3%, announced value 3%
Core monthly rate 0.2% also below the expected 0.3%
US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, all shot up like a needle
666# October rate hike expectations fall back, tonight's PCE is the key
TraderS | 缺德道人
Tonight, there will be the ADP employment report and PCE data released. I was out today, so I didn't have time to write an analysis in advance. However, since the big nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday, this less important ADP report can be ignored for now.
Now, regarding the PCE data, both PCE and CPI are the most important components of inflation data and must be taken seriously. Especially tonight, as it is the first macroeconomic data release after the rate hike and includes a revision in the data calculation method, both are major points to watch.
According to the consistently accurate Cleveland Fed model updated on September 29: the overall PCE for August is estimated at 0.34% month-over-month, and the core at 0.27%.
The current market consensus expectations are: headline monthly rate at 0.4%, annual rate at 3.8%; core monthly rate at 0.3%, annual rate at 3.4%.
Based on previously high oil prices, the August PCE data should be on the hotter side, but since the calculation method has been revised, the purpose is naturally to try to lower the data. Coupled with the intentionally or unintentionally but very timely suppressed oil prices starting the day before yesterday, it seems more like an effort to convince the market that inflation data is indeed moving in an improving direction.
Additionally, historical data will be revised today. If the historical data is suddenly revised downward, the market might take the opportunity to speculate briefly before gradually accepting the revised results and returning to stability.
In summary, there will be no consecutive rate hikes in October, but since the next FOMC meeting is still a month away, rate hike expectations will inevitably be speculated back and forth. Risk management should be well prepared on both ends. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
Tonight, there will be the ADP employment report and PCE data released. I was out today, so I didn't have time to write an analysis in advance. However, since the big nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday, this less important ADP report can be ignored for now.
Now, regarding the PCE data, both PCE and CPI are the most important components of inflation data and must be taken seriously. Especially tonight, as it is the first macroeconomic data release after the rate hike and includes a revision in the data calculation method, both are major points to watch.
According to the consistently accurate Cleveland Fed model updated on September 29: the overall PCE for August is estimated at 0.34% month-over-month, and the core at 0.27%.
The current market consensus expectations are: headline monthly rate at 0.4%, annual rate at 3.8%; core monthly rate at 0.3%, annual rate at 3.4%.
Based on previously high oil prices, the August PCE data should be on the hotter side, but since the calculation method has been revised, the purpose is naturally to try to lower the data. Coupled with the intentionally or unintentionally but very timely suppressed oil prices starting the day before yesterday, it seems more like an effort to convince the market that inflation data is indeed moving in an improving direction.
Additionally, historical data will be revised today. If the historical data is suddenly revised downward, the market might take the opportunity to speculate briefly before gradually accepting the revised results and returning to stability.
In summary, there will be no consecutive rate hikes in October, but since the next FOMC meeting is still a month away, rate hike expectations will inevitably be speculated back and forth. Risk management should be well prepared on both ends. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
As previously expected, the probability of a rate hike in October cannot remain high for long
It was knocked down early this morning by remarks from New York Fed President Williams, who has been widely known in the crypto community since last year for calling Bitcoin's rebound from a downtrend at 80k, and has repeatedly expressed views at key market turning points that change market direction
Oil prices are also temporarily suppressed by news such as Saudi Arabia resuming exports and the US re-auctioning up to 40 million barrels of SPR crude oil, while US Treasury yields have started to decline
If tonight's PCE data provides further support, gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin could all see a good rebound. Even if there is no movement tonight, Friday's big nonfarm payrolls report will also bring market action
Around 7 o'clock, the risk market stopped falling and rebounded, not only due to the drop in oil prices but also importantly because of Nvidia's announcement of increasing its buyback by $150 billion.
From the perspective of the capital transmission chain, Nvidia can now be called the little Federal Reserve of the AI sector. Any company blessed by Huang (Jensen Huang) sees its valuation take off, truly a Midas touch.
If we place this move on my estimated 2027 bubble timeline, it signals a mid-to-late stage: liquidity providers in the ecosystem start spending liquidity on themselves. Historically, this corresponds to the phase where pricing shifts from growth to maturity—like Microsoft in 2004, Cisco in 2001, and Apple in 2013.
How long this bubble can last depends on three things:
Whether the actual buyback pace in the next earnings report really moves toward $40 billion per quarter
Whether share swap transactions continue
Capital expenditure guidance from cloud vendors' earnings at the end of October $NVDA
Ultimately, whether it's short-term US Treasury yields or risk markets, it all depends on the oil price.
And the rise and fall of oil prices essentially reflect whether the existing international order continues to be effective.
From the third and fourth of the eight achievements announced by China, as long as China has no intention to challenge the current international order, other countries won't be able to overturn it.
Simply put, if you can earn a trillion a year under this order without bloodshed, why bother fighting?
As Cao Cao said, "If the country had no orphans, no one would know how many would claim to be emperor or king." At this stage, dealing with the US alone is far more cost-effective than China directly handling Europe, Russia, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, South America, and so on.
Naturally, it's better to continue supporting the US as the leader. Only when future strength rises to the point where low profile is no longer allowed or the benefits of claiming kingship or hegemony outweigh the costs will China consider changing the leader. For now, hitching a ride and contributing some resources to help the US maintain low-cost international public security and order is very worthwhile.
Blocking the strait is doomed not to last. If Iran completely blocks it, how can it sustain its national economy and people's livelihood? Moreover, if the strait remains unstable for a long time, this 20% of energy exports will naturally be replaced by other means. Once replaced, it means the hand is wasted, so Iran will only occasionally pull the rope but won't really strangle it.
And once the international order is completely restructured and a new international currency is born, that will be the time to abandon gold. Before that, risk assets will of course fluctuate, but these fluctuations are mostly caused by arbitrage among parties rather than structural upheaval. $CL
The continuous rebound in U.S. Treasury yields this week is also somewhat related to the China-U.S. summit. The rumored Chinese business delegation accompanying the visit ultimately did not materialize, and after the talks, even a joint communiqué could not be issued. There was not much actual cooperation or consensus achieved between the two sides. The summit lacked incremental positive news, causing the market to lose momentum. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and interest rates directly pressured the market's decline on Monday. Especially from the current perspective, oil prices have not developed toward the best expected boundaries outlined in the third of the eight outcomes.
The relationship between China and U.S. Treasuries has also become a daily topic on various platforms. Simply put, after suffering a big loss in 2008, China has become smarter. With its national strength enhanced, it now has the qualification to say no. The annual trade surplus exceeding one trillion yuan no longer goes to buying U.S. Treasuries as before; instead, China has even turned to buying gold. Although China currently has no intention to replace the U.S. as the world's leader, it still needs to prepare accordingly.
This preparation has become an important driving force behind the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices.
Therefore, from a long-term perspective, buying gold on dips is a high-probability strategy.
Oil prices have already started to fall, so those preparing to buy the dip don't need to rush. You can adjust based on your risk preference and trading cycle. Timing-wise, you can completely wait until around the Wednesday PCE data release or even hold steady until around Friday's big nonfarm payrolls before making a move.
Before the September FOMC, the best entry points are whenever macro data or Federal Reserve officials trigger a shift in market expectations.
Be patient and wait for macro signals and market signals to resonate together; right now, there's just the beginning of a convergence trend.
Actually, the recent drop over the past few days is a good thing; bull market corrections always provide opportunities. Also, don't forget that this Wednesday there is PCE data, and on Friday there is the big non-farm payroll data. These are typical windows prone to artificial volatility.
Currently, the probability of an interest rate hike in October is 70%, but if things go well, these two data points could directly push the hike probability below 30%.
The decline starting on Monday should be caused by two combined reasons:
1. The China-US summit did not produce results beyond expectations, and was even somewhat below expectations, so the positive news has been fully priced in and a pullback followed.
2. The short-term rate hike expectations were overplayed. Unlike the rising rate hike expectations before the September FOMC meeting, the probability of a rate hike before the October FOMC meeting is expected to be high at first and then lower, so the trend will likely fall from a short-term peak before rising again.
After all, looking around the market now, except for gold which is relatively cost-effective, other assets are not cheap, so a pullback is needed before continuing to rally.