#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Wanting to run at a small loss is because of fear of losing more. That's human nature, I get it. But the problem is, when I open a position, I clearly have a stop-loss line and logic. As long as the stop-loss line isn't broken, that small floating loss is nothing, so why should I run? To put it bluntly, running is because I lack confidence and don't remember why I opened the position in the first place, so I panic as soon as the price moves. Wanting to run after a small profit is because of fear of giving back gains. That's also human nature. But when I open a position, I clearly have a target price and a risk-reward ratio. If the target hasn't been reached and I run out of "fear," then the risk-reward ratio of this trade is meaningless. Over time, making small profits and big losses will only shrink the account. I reviewed my trades and found that the root cause of not holding positions is not mindset, but three things I didn't clarify: First, I didn't think clearly about why I opened the position before entering. Was it because I was optimistic about fundamentals? A technical breakout? Or just blindly following the crowd? If I can't clearly explain it myself, I definitely can't hold when the price moves. Second, I didn't set a proper stop-loss line. The stop-loss line is not just decoration; it's my confidence in the trade. As long as the stop-loss line isn't broken, price fluctuations are normal and there's no need to panic. If the stop-loss line is broken, exit unconditionally without hesitation. Third, the position size is too large. Often, I can't hold because the amount of money is too big; a fluctuation of a few hundred to a thousand dollars shakes my mindset. With a smaller position size, fluctuations are within a tolerable range, so naturally, I can hold. I set a rule for myself: to hold a position, first turn myself into a robot. Think through the logic before opening a position, set the stop-loss line, set the take-profit target. Then close the software and do whatever else needs to be done. When it comes to

Just saw the data: the US 10-year Treasury yield once surged to 5.27% intraday, and the 30-year yield also soared to 5.55%, both hitting the highest levels since 2007. Meanwhile, spot gold plummeted more than 3%, briefly falling below the $4200 mark intraday, reaching a seven-week low. This is not just about gold. The US stock market, BTC, and AI concept stocks have all been retreating these days. The only winners are the US dollar and US Treasuries. The market is trading on a logic: high interest rates may persist longer than everyone expects. Let's first look at how this "interest rate storm" came about. The surge in long-term US Treasury yields is not caused by a single factor but is the result of three overlapping pressures. The first layer: inflation expectations are heating up again. Oil prices have recently risen again, with Brent crude hovering around $100. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations cannot come down, and inflation expectations directly push up long-term rates because investors demand higher yields to compensate for future inflation risk. The second layer: the US Treasury's "market rescue" operation has actually intensified panic. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen previously announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, even increasing it to three times the original amount, aiming to cool the bond market. But what was the result? On September 10, the first buyback had a $6 billion operation cap but only completed $5.187 billion, an 86.5% completion rate, and yields rose instead of falling. On September 24, the second buyback's completion rate dropped further to 68%. The market sees this as: the Treasury's tools are exhausted, and the effect is just like this. This instead makes the market question the Treasury's ability to support the bond market.

Brothers, after the market closes on September 30, Micron $MU will deliver its report. I checked the data, and this stock has been quite stable recently. The current price is around 1090, up more than 8 points in 7 days, and up 18% in 30 days. It rose slightly by 0.4% today, but what's interesting is the capital flow—looking at the 5-minute level just now, there was a net outflow of 10.19 xMU, with large and extra-large orders moving out. This indicates that some people are taking profits early and don't dare to hold through the earnings report. But the fundamentals are really strong. Last quarter, Micron's revenue hit a record, and for Q4, they guided revenue around $50 billion with a gross margin of about 86%. The market is even more optimistic now; some are directly forecasting next quarter's revenue to be between $58 billion and $59 billion. Why such confidence? Because AI servers' demand for HBM and DRAM is still exploding. Goldman Sachs expects the top five tech companies' capital expenditures to reach $1.2 trillion by 2027. That number sounds crazy, but companies like Nvidia and Anthropic are racing to expand computing power, and memory chips are a critical bottleneck. So the question now isn't "Is demand good?" but "Can Micron turn this demand into real cash?" Can prices for HBM, DRAM, and NAND continue to rise? Can production capacity keep up? Is management optimistic or cautious about supply next year? These are the key points to watch after the market closes on the 30th. Back to my own strategy. In this kind of pre-earnings market, I usually don't bet heavily on direction. I've suffered losses before—betting on earnings beating expectations, only to see the stock price move the opposite way when the numbers came out. So currently