Crypto_猫哥(BTC版）
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Conclusion first
We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30%
Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB
If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP
Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation
I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back
Let's all get rich together
$BTC
BTC breaks through $80,000, why the sudden sharp rise?
News: Federal Reserve Governor Waller hinted a preference to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market's biggest fear of "rate hikes returning" was dismissed, leading to a direct loosening of risk assets.
More hardcore on-chain data: Whales aggressively accumulated 60,000 BTC (about $4.7 billion) in August, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $3.52 billion in August, and BlackRock lowered the IBIT redemption threshold from $25 million to $1 million—institutions are buying, retail investors are selling.
Chips are shifting from retail hands to large holders and institutions; this rally is not a stampede but a change of hands.
After breaking through $80,000, holding the level is key.
The short-term core is whether it can hold above 81,500 with volume.
Holding above this opens the 82,800~83,800 range, and around 82,800 is the watershed for determining the mid-term direction (a breakthrough points to 94,000-98,000, resistance leads to a return to the range).
$BTC
$BTC Review of yesterday's view:
Resistance is seen at 77800 with heavy selling pressure, major structural support at 72000; if not broken, the bullish pattern remains unchanged.
Yesterday's price was below the midline of the range, short-term bearish bias.
Market verification: price surged from 76400 to 77784, then retreated after approaching the 77800 resistance, creating a lower low at 76246.
Evening's minor non-farm payroll data was positive, causing a volatile upward movement; today it stands above 78000.
Key level to watch is 78400; only if it is reached and held can this downtrend be considered ended.
An 8-hour level rebound is starting; first target 78400, then challenge the previous high at 79000
$BTC
BTC has pulled back to $77,800, but short-term holders have not yet entered loss-driven selling.
The short-term holder SOPR is currently still slightly above 1, indicating that short-term coins recently moved on-chain are being sold on average at a profit.
During BTC's rise in August, this indicator once rose above 1.04, reflecting a significant increase in short-term profit-taking.
Now SOPR is rapidly falling, indicating that the realizable profits of short-term holders have significantly narrowed but have not yet fallen below the breakeven line.
Next, 1 is a very critical level:
Holding above 1 means pullbacks are still mainly profit-taking;
Falling below 1 and continuing to weaken indicates recent buyers are starting to exit at a loss;
If it falls below but quickly recovers, it may represent a release of short-term selling pressure.
Currently, it is closer to profit giving back rather than panic selling.
Note that STH-SOPR only counts short-term coins that have already moved on-chain and does not represent the profit and loss of all short-term holders' positions.
$BTC
$ETH
Review of $ETH's view from yesterday
Yesterday, resistance was given at 2437, overall bearish bias, waiting to test the support at 2353 before making further judgment
The market unfolded as expected: price encountered resistance and fell back at 2430, dipping to a low of 2356, which just fell within the defined support range
After the support held effectively, a rebound began, currently fluctuating around 2408
The 30-minute indicator completed a zero-axis crossover upwards, next to observe the strength in the evening
To confirm Ethereum's return to strength, it must firmly hold above 2453
$UNI
$ETH
Is $UNI fully circulating? Is there inflation? Is it deflationary? Let's clarify all at once!
1️⃣ Regarding whether it is fully circulating, we look at Binance app and CMC's web page, which give two different numbers
Binance app: Circulating 890 million, total 890 million
CMC web: Circulating 620 million, total 890 million
The difference is that CMC counts 270 million in the treasury as non-circulating because these are not circulating in the public market
Conclusion: The core issue is the definition of "circulating"; traders need to be clear about the difference in definitions
2️⃣ Is there inflation?
Currently, from public information, Uniswap has two inflation mechanisms
First, the treasury allocates 20 million tokens annually to Uniswap Labs to support ecosystem development, vested quarterly; this has already happened, but note this is not an increase in total supply, just a transfer from the treasury to the lab
Second, the total supply can increase by 20 million tokens annually, but this is only a proposal and has not been implemented yet, so it has not actually occurred
3️⃣ Is it deflationary?
Uniswap can burn tokens according to protocol revenue; this has happened. Currently, the total token supply is 890 million, while at TGE it was 1 billion
Conclusion: Whether it is fully circulating depends on the definition; the token has both inflation and deflation mechanisms, and whether it ends up deflationary or inflationary depends on the combined effect
$BTC
BTC Liquidation Heatmap Observation
The price is currently oscillating around 77000, caught between two major liquidation zones.
Above, there is a large accumulation of short liquidation positions at 78300‑78800. If it breaks upward, short covering will help push the market higher.
Below, there is a cluster of long liquidation positions at 76000‑76800. Once broken, long liquidation stampede will intensify the downward movement.
If you are the main force, would you trigger leverage liquidation upwards or downwards?
Mark it down
Next opportunity
鸟哥｜蓝鸟会
Brothers, the big one is coming. Circle's own @Arc mainnet is officially announced to launch on September 16. Get ready to welcome the next Robinhood!
Arc is a Layer 1 public chain, but its gas fees are not paid in ETH or anything else, they are paid directly in USDC. The next hundredfold or thousandfold opportunity is on this chain!
Arc hasn't officially opened yet. The mainnet was briefly open for a short time before, but Arc itself temporarily shut down the official RPC and Gateway to prevent unauthorized access. Note, only the front-end facade was closed; the chain itself never stopped and has been running continuously.
@fomo founder @seyong stated: They will support Arc on the first day of the mainnet launch.
Tools you need to prepare now:
GMGN: (the first trading tool to support the ARC chain early on)
fomo: (there will be many early buyers on launch day; you can follow the smart money to trade on fomo)
Now let's talk about some memes already running on the chain, each more abstract than the last:
1️⃣ Birdie, the dog owned by Chris Ries, named Birdie. The official Arc account even posted photos of it.
🔗
🔗
2️⃣ Architects, a name taken from the term "Architects" mentioned in the Arc House project.
🔗
3️⃣ ARCANINE, the first meme coin on the Arc chain, taking the lead.
🔗
4️⃣ Aros, from a dog photo Circle posted in 2015, then called "our client." This project first launched on the Robinhood chain and promised a 1:1 airdrop on Arc.
🔗
5️⃣ SLJ, full name Supreme Leader Jeremy, the most intense one. On April 16, 2026, an address called dprk.arc on Arc testnet minted a North Korea propaganda-themed NFT to Circle CEO @jerallaire's public address jerallaire.arc. The dprk.arc address was found to have received 80 million USDC bridged from the Drift Protocol hacker. SLJ is a meme coin mocking this incident.
🔗
Here's a simple rundown of the ecosystem so you won't be lost:
Market charts: @fomo, @gmgnai, @BasedBot, @ArcDEXScan
Cross-chain bridges: @lifiprotocol, @DYORSWAPDEX, @wormhole, @MaestroBots, and more
Popular tokens: 🔗
Launchpads: @Archemistdotfun, @actfunxyz, @warponarc, @DYORSWAPDEX
Block explorers: 🔗 and 🔗
TG trading bot: @BasedBot
DEX: @TowerExchange, @actfunxyz
Trading markets: @Orixaxyz
NFT projects: @ArcPunksNFT, @Arc_Punks, @KyneraOnArc
Faucet: 🔗
Also, here are some unofficial RPCs: 🔗
Arc hasn't officially launched yet. The previous temporary RPC shutdown shows the official team is controlling the pace. What will happen on September 16? What kind of commotion will these dogs and abstract memes on the chain cause? If you want to play, prepare your wallet and chain info in advance so you won't be caught off guard.
$UNI
Regarding $UNI, three key points to focus on
1. The narrative has shifted from a DEX to a blockchain liquidity operating system
2. Protocol revenue is used to burn $UNI, so the token's value is related to revenue, rather than being a governance token without real significance
3. Although 20 million new tokens are issued annually, based on the revenue from the past 30 days, it is deflationary (annualized burn exceeds 20 million)
Of course, currently the protocol revenue is highly correlated with the RH chain, so the main focus going forward is whether Uniswap's revenue can continue to grow
$BTC
Take a look at this small consolidation range; it might be forming a descending small wedge. So my judgment is that on the 4H chart, it can strongly break through this small structure, then consolidate with reduced volume near the recent previous high of 79.3K for a while, and continue to break out beyond 80K.
If it goes wrong here or 79K doesn't hold, it might test 75K again. Both scenarios have a 50% probability.
Of course, I hope it immediately breaks through 80K and heads to 90K, forming a wide range of over 10K points on the weekly chart, which would make trading much easier.
