大老师Bunny
大老师Bunny
OKX大师课讲师 宏观交易员 立志做最专业的美股Trader 推特同名
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9.30 Micron Earnings Forecast $MU
This earnings forecast is extremely challenging.
Since the market opened, no clear direction has emerged.
The following content is the blogger's bold speculation, DYOR, NFA
This is very important, agile trading
Summary: Earnings Beat with Guidance Downgrade
Candlestick trend: Price surges after earnings release, then drops after guidance.
Volatility range is between 1015-1135.
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First, the rebound of SOXX/SMH is noticeably later than the bullish options on MU, which constitutes a sign of Insider Trading.
From this, we judge that the earnings will exceed expectations, and the market may break through 1070 after the earnings release, reaching the Call Wall at 1100.
Ultimately, the top after the earnings Beat may stay between 1100-1150. Judging from IV, 1100-1135 is the limit of this rebound. (The price range difference is small, so do not be too strict about the price range)
However, guidance will see some downgrades due to obstacles in data center construction, and the newly updated Agent has not yet reached Killer level.
Therefore, during the conference call phase, MU's stock price will gradually fall from 1100-1135 down to 1000-1050. The author believes this range can be further refined to between 1015-1050.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
SPCX big pre-market opportunity today
Launch mission at 20:15
I tend to go long
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Core objective this time: Starship's first true entry into Earth orbit and deployment of 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites. The previous 13 flights all followed suborbital trajectories, so this commercial validation is more significant.
$SPCX
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧
Interest rate hikes have landed, and the US, Japan, and South Korea are truly panicking about crude oil
This is also a real "turning point"
China-US, China-Iran, US-Iran peace talks
Are only about solving the crude oil issue and also addressing inflation
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The turning point is the key point of this passage
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
The expectation of a rate hike has already approached 90%, it's almost a done deal, so stop talking about the unrealistic view of a rate cut.
From Trump's standpoint, no problem, a rate hike is something he cannot tolerate, but the market will ultimately price it correctly. No matter how much Warsh shows off, it can't change the fact that the current market needs a rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% is also telling everyone that market risk is too high and the possibility of a recession is too high.
The market will further doubt
Whether your Federal Reserve is truly independent. If it becomes a regulatory tool for Trump, what will happen to the US dollars and dollar assets we hold? Actually, the market is pricing in this risk.
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Some solid points: the rate hike expectation is basically a done deal, but this time the dot plot (which may not appear) and subsequent statements become more important.
What truly drives the market reaction is
Whether this tightening path "has boundaries and credibility" that can pull the Fed's credibility back from the edge of the cliff. This is the core of this trade and the core test of Warsh's ability. It's absolutely not just about whether this rate hike happens or not. A "follow-through with a clear end point" rate hike is more friendly to risk assets than a "hold position but keep the threat" no rate hike. And a rate hike that "opens up an unlimited tightening imagination space" (raising r*, explicitly targeting inflation) is more deadly than any no rate hike.
What can be confirmed
Certainty has the greatest leverage effect on duration assets
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
CPI can't stop patriotic enthusiasm
大老师Bunny
From 2001 to present on 9/11
17 valid trading days, 15 times up, 3 times down
Only in 2002, 2009, and 2020
SPX closed down
Other times it closed up
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
From 2001 to present on 9/11
17 valid trading days, 15 times up, 3 times down
Only in 2002, 2009, and 2020
SPX closed down
Other times it closed up
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
Brief synchronization of important information
1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week
If progress occurs, it will immediately benefit the Japanese and South Korean stock markets
Here you can directly call $KORU $SOXL
Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea
Relative changes in the strait will bring a relative opposite effect to the market
2. I will fully accompany everyone for the 10y US Treasury auction at 1:00 on Wednesday
This 10y US Treasury auction may be the most important of this quarter
It will guide whether the market heads toward a recession
3. Employment data, CPI, and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about a recession. Today's decline is also due to this
4. This decline is unrelated to defensive moves before NVDA earnings; this time it is more about recession defense causing the drop
A typical safe haven
5. Gold remains an important long-term target
6. Pay attention to the cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on Wednesday, with participants including SEC, CFTC, and crypto company leaders such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, Gemini, etc. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said tokenization may become a focus of the summit.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
cohr csco guessed right
cbrs guessed wrong again
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
CSCO earnings report bearish
$CSCO
In the last 30 minutes of the close, a large bullish option close-out appeared, seemingly deliberate
Expected move: 7.57% (+/- $9.36)
From the option GEX perspective, 130 and 135 also become important resistance levels for CSCO
While 110 is also an important support level for CSCO
At the close between 13:30-13:35, a large ITM bullish sell order was executed
This will be an extremely bearish option position
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This only represents the option market view, and deviation from facts is relatively normal
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
Bullish after CBRS earnings report
$CBRS
has been strong since the earnings report
Expected move: 11.46% (+/- $29.85)
As of 3:30, $290 is the current target price for the bulls
And there is heavy profit-taking and long liquidation at $300
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
