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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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67美元的DASH,你要追吗? 先看表面:暴拉后回落,散户纠结。 24小时高点打到73-75,低点从49拉起来,振幅超过40%。成交量冲到5.5亿美金,对8.5亿市值来说换手率超过60%。日线RSI 75-86,严重超买。  第一件事:这波涨,不是DASH自己的故事。 Grayscale Zcash ETF上线后AUM冲过4亿美金,资金开始从ZEC往二线隐私币轮动。DASH被抬起来了,但它自己并没有对等的ETF。 所以这波是什么?板块贝塔,不是基本面独占。 同样的剧本2021年发生过:ZEC涨完,DASH跟涨;ZEC一停,DASH最先被砸。 第二件事:这个换手率,是资金进场也是撤退信号。 24小时成交5.5亿,市值才8.5亿,换手率超过60%。 这种量能说明是真金白银进来了,不是阴跌阴涨。但反过来——一旦情绪熄火,回撤速度一样快。 2024年WIF在3美元附近也出现过类似换手率,随后一周腰斩。量能是双刃剑,既能送你上天,也能把你砸穿地板。 第三件事:技术面出现了两个必须重视的信号。 信号一:日线RSI 75-86,严重超买。 这是从49直接拉到75的后遗症,短期涨太快,需要消化。 信号二:合约资金费率转正,多头拥挤。 全网DASH永续成交额极大,正费率+超买+高换手=短线多头拥挤。历史规律:每次山寨币正费率到极端,都会来一波清洗。 上方阻力:69-70 → 72-75 → 80-85 → 95-100 下方支撑:62-64 → 56-58 → 52(趋势失效线)→ 40-47(深回撤) 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 隐私板块共振,Zcash ETF资金外溢 Evolution屏蔽交易+Platform升级,叙事更新 日线金叉+均线多头排列,中期转多 成交量暴增,资金确实在进场 一边是: 日线RSI 75-86超买,需要回调消化 资金费率转正,合约多头拥挤 DASH是被带涨的,没有自己的ETF逻辑 如果ZEC熄火,DASH跟跌更快 操作策略 空仓的:  两个进场点: A. 趋势多(主策略) 回踩62-64缩量企稳接多,更稳的位置56-58。止损日线有效跌破52,目标72-75→80-85→95-100。 B. 反弹空(仅限短线) 反抽71-75受阻、放量上影,才考虑轻空。止损站稳76上方,目标64→58。这是逆势单,仓位必须更小。 已经有多单: 67不是加仓位,是减仓位。浮盈先拿掉1/3-1/2,剩余止损上移到58-60。若重新站上72并站稳4h,再把减掉的补回来。 未来3-7天,三种走法: 基准(概率最高): 67附近震荡,回踩60-64后决定方向。能守住62,再去打72-75。 偏多: 快速收回70并拿住,目标75,再看80+。需要成交量不腰斩。 偏空: 失守62,下一站56-58;日线跌回52下,这波脉冲结束。 DASH现在就像2021年ZEC暴涨后的跟风小弟—— 龙头涨完龙二补涨,补涨往往最猛,但也最容易把人套在山顶。 67这个位置,你敢追吗? 币圈最惨的不是没买到龙头,而是龙头的肉没吃到,龙二的面一口没少。 你的DASH成本是多少? 这波隐私轮动,你跟不跟? $BTC $ZEC $DASH
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
Have you chased the $1010 ZEC? Let's look at the surface first: after ten years, retail investors are crazily chasing back into the thousand-yuan price. On August 25, the Grayscale Spot ETF (ZCSH) was listed on NYSE Arca. ZEC jumped directly from 800 to above 1000, reaching a high of 1046. In 24 hours, turnover exceeded 1 billion, and short positions were liquidated by 34 million. The daily RSI has reached 78-80, and the weekly RSI has surged to 73+—overbought and overbought beyond measure. First: ETFs have really been implemented, but the price has already been driven away ahead of time. Grayscale spot ETF (ZCSH) was listed on August 25, with an initial net inflow of 34 million and over 400,000 ZEC in holdings. Institutional channels have opened, which is the strongest catalyst for ZEC. But this rally from 800 to 1000 has already completely eaten up ETF expectations. The second thing: ZEC's fundamentals have indeed changed, but $1,000 has already been heavily exhausted. Total supply is 21 million, with shielded pools accounting for 30% (about 4.8 million tokens), and circulating supply is tighter SEC investigation concluded (no enforcement action), and the compliance channel opened Cypherpunk Technologies continues to accumulate coins, targeting 5% of circulating supply The proportion of blocked transactions continues to rise, and real demand is growing From $40 to $1,000, a 25-fold increase. Fundamentals supported this rally, but prices have already outpaced fundamentals. Good assets + good prices = good investments. Good assets + bad prices = bad investments. ZEC is a good asset now, but is the price a good price? Third thing: In the next two weeks, macroeconomic issues are the biggest surprise. CPI will be released on September 11, FOMC will be held on September 15-16. If CPI is relatively high, rate hike expectations will heat up, and high-level imitators will be the first to fall If the FOMC leans hawkish and liquidity tightens, a high-beta pullback of 20-30% for ZEC is normal The market is now tightly tied to the Fed, BTC hovers around 80,000, but can ZEC's independent narrative withstand macro negative factors? Resistance above: 1046-1050 → 1100 → 1200 Support below: 1000 (psychological level + breakout level) → 890-920 → 775-800 Operational strategy If you are short on positions: Wait for a pullback to 1000-980 for volume reduction and stabilization, then lighten and test long. Set a stop loss below 960. Target 1045-1100; reduce position once it reaches it. If you have floating profits from your positions: First, cut down one-third to half to lower costs. Set the remaining stop-loss at 920-950. Don't fantasize about going straight to 1500; protect your profits first. If you just chased the highs and got stuck: Don't panic, but don't hold out either. If volume drops below 1000, exit first, wait for 890-920 before buying. CPI and FOMC reduced positions in the first three days When funding rates turn positive + positions are at a high level, once it weakens, it means buying long stocks ZEC's rise from 40 to 1000 is an explosion of the "compliant privacy" narrative from zero to one— But think about it: in 2020, when BTC rose from 10,000 to 60,000, how many people chased after the peak? The 1000 level is a realization zone, not a position building zone. The ones who buy are the apprentices, the ones who sell are the masters, and the ones who can empty their positions are the founding masters. How much does your ZEC cost? Was it chasing the high at 1010, or was it set up at 800? $BTC $ETH $ZEC

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