HYPE at $81.5—to run or not?
Let's look at the surface first: with high-level fluctuations, neither bulls nor bears dared to move.
On August 27, it just hit an all-time high of 86.8, then pulled back 6% to around 81.5. It rose 50%+ in one month, firmly holding a leading position in market capitalization, with a contract OI of $3.2 billion. The price is above the 20-day EMA (75), the upward channel has not broken, and the RSI has shifted from overbought to neutral.
But on September 6, 9.92 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked, with a nominal value of $800 million. Are you afraid?
First event: AQAv2 arrives, and HYPE has become an "ATM."
Previously, HYPE's buybacks relied on 99% of fees. Now, after AQAv2 activates, USDC reserve yields will also be used for programmatic buybacks + burns.
99% of fee income continues to be repurchased
USDC reserve yields are also included in the buyback
Second thing: $800 million unlocked—what exactly are you afraid of?
On September 6, core contributors unlocked about 9.92 million HYPE, with a nominal value of about $800 million.
Fact 1: Historically, actual claims have been far below the calendar figures.
Unlocking doesn't mean selling the market. Many contributors will keep holding or release in batches, not all at once.
Fact 2: The buyback mechanism keeps buying, with buying opportunities taking over every day.
Who is your counterparty? It's the 99% fee buyback, USDC yield buyback, and Strategies' 2.5 billion worth of ammunition.
Third thing: The candlestick chart tells you that the bullish structure is not broken at all
Full upward channel: The price is above the 20-day EMA (75) and 50-day EMA, with ADX at high levels indicating that trend strength remains
Fibonacci 0.618 pullback: Around 81.5 is a classic retracement level, from the August 30 low of 79.05 to the August 31 high of 85.37, just rebounding to the golden ratio
RSI is neutral to slightly strong: not overbought, still room to move
Key locations:
Support: 80.6-81.2 (Fibonacci) → 78.98 (4-hour Supertrend) → 75 (strong support at 20-day EMA)
Resistance: 82.7-83.5 → 84.4 → 86.5-87 (ATH)
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
AQAv2 activated, dual-layer buyback mechanism takes effect (99% transaction fees + USDC yield)
Strategies holds 29.3 million tokens and continues to increase holdings
Up 50%+ monthly, trend strength remains, and the upward channel is intact
The inclusion of the Nasdaq index in the +ETF signals capital inflows
On one side:
Unlock $800 million (nominal) on September 6
Macro conditions are weak, BTC is under pressure at 77,000, and expectations of rate hikes are heating up
North Korean address-related FUD
OI of 3.2 billion is on the high side, with leverage amplifying volatility
How do you do it?
Short-term:
Light position at 80.6-81.2, test long, stop loss at 79.5, target 82.8-83.5. If it can't hold above 82.7, wait and see. Short positions wait for 84-85 before reconsidering, stop loss above 87.
Mid-term:
Reduce position before and after unlocking; don't hold on. If after unlocking, hold between 78-80 and quickly buy back, it indicates strong buying interest. Buy on dips and look for ATH or even 90+. If it falls below 75 and volume increases, wait and see, possibly test 73.
When it comes to the ZEC 300, you don't dare to buy it; when it comes to the ZEC 536, you hesitate.
When you were on the HYPE 81, you were afraid to unlock it; at the HYPE 100, you might slap your thigh.
Every bull market first gets most people off the board, then sweeps ahead of the crowd.
September 6th, $800 million unlocked—are you handing over your chips, or is someone else taking them?
What is your HYPE cost? Unlock this wave: are you planning to run or add more?
$BTC$ZEC$HYPE
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