Post

$98 SOL: Real Fall or Fake Crash? Let's look at the surface: oil prices surged to $95, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.81%, a three-year high, and the probability of a rate hike jumped from 50% to 68%—high-beta altcoins were the first to be unwinded. SOL fell from 110 to 98, a 10% drop—sounds scary? But if you look closely, in August it rose from 70 to 110, a 57% increase. What does today's pulldown count as? First thing: Today's drop has nothing to do with Solana itself Iran exploded, Brent crude broke 95, and the market switched to safe-haven mode. BTC only fell 1%, SOL dropped 4%, and TRX dropped more than 3%—got it? This is called "cutting the most volatile positions first," which has nothing to do with Solana's fundamentals. Second thing: 98 is a "breakout pullback," not a "trend end" In August, SOL closed with its first monthly bullish candlestick in nearly 10 months, +46%, rising from 70 to 110, with volume breaking through 103-106. Now it is pushing back to 98—where is the position? This is the key band for 'turning resistance into support.' After the rally, step on it to confirm support, then keep moving upward. I've seen this scenario a hundred times, but retail investors always end up cutting losses when they step on it. Third: In the next two weeks, the calendar is more important than the candlestick September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC + dot plot. CME FedWatch shows a 66%-68% probability of a 25bp hike in September, much lower than a week ago. Chairman Warsh is hawkish, with July PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, both well above 2%. If the non-farm/CPI is hot and rate hike pricing continues to rise, SOL will be under pressure. If the data is soft and the geopolitical situation eases, high-beta stocks like SOL will rebound the fastest. Empty positions: Once it holds above 100, chase long on the right side, targeting 105→110, stop loss at 96 Or wait for the 94-96 to be picked up in batches, which is more comfortable Multiple singles: Reduce positions around 98 by 30%-50% to lock in costs Defensive positions for remaining positions at 94 (aggressive) or 90 (for stability) Don't add a full position at 98; wait for a long lower shadow to form between 94-96, or climb back above 100 Short-term traders: 97.4-98.5 Extremely small position test long, stop loss at 96.8, target 100.5-102 Leverage exceeds 5-8 times, and non-farm/FOMC levels drop to 3 times or be short If it rebounds to 100-102 and doesn't hold steady, just close for now—don't fantasize about going straight back to 110 Mid-lane players: Wait for the 1994-96 to be picked up in batches, not the 98 shuttle now Medium-term invalidation: The daily close may fall below 90, or BTC may fall below 75,000 while US Treasuries continue to rally Medium-term target: first to reclaim 110, then 120-125 After a rapid rally, there is always a group of people who die during pullbacks—not from sharp drops, but from panic thinking 'a crash.' SOL rises from 70 to 110, but you don't buy. If it pushes back to 98, you call it "trash." If it returns to 94, you shout "reset to zero." Then it rises back to 150, and you ask, "Can you still chase?" To which cycle do you plan to repeat this cycle before it breaks? What is your SOL cost? Did you withstand this pullback? $BTC $ETH $SOL