#The Trump administration plans to launch an overseas US dollar stablecoin program. From cryptocurrencies to stablecoins, it can be said that the US has been laying out the dollar 2.0 system since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and this moment reveals it clearly. Almost all the macro signals you've seen recently, including but not limited to Fed rate hikes, US-Iran conflicts, oil prices, and US debt, can be connected to this. I believe most friends haven't realized that the future is already here, but by reading this article by Ajian, you'll have a clearer understanding of the macro landscape. I don't need to use too much data to explain the current scale of stablecoins; everyone knows how fast they have developed. Longtime followers might remember that Ajian previously analyzed Tether's promotion of stablecoin payments at gas stations in El Salvador, marking USDT's first entry into large-scale commodity retail payment scenarios; as well as Tether's ongoing purchase of US Treasury bonds, which has reached $150 billion. Simply put, these are all new channels to demonstrate to governments the support for the US dollar. In the coming period, the US government will continue to promote a weak dollar but a strong dollar, using monetary easing to keep enough countries firmly tied to the dollar system. If we review the four parts supporting the dollar system 2.0: the dollar, energy, AI semiconductors, and crypto & stablecoins. The dollar itself has become increasingly tied to oil over the past six months, and the development speed of AI semiconductors in recent years is evident to all, so now it's time to accelerate the promotion of stablecoins. These four parts complement each other, just like the dollar and oil, AI + crypto, Tether's attempts at oil + stablecoin, and now the vigorous promotion of AI + stablecoin. This is also why Wall Street giants like BlackRock are taking sides for AI stablecoin payments. If you understand the dollar system 2.0, you'll find that most macro news will unfold before your eyes in intricate connections. Finally, smart friends should have thought of this: all these attributions ultimately point to one direction—everything on-chain. RWA (Real World Assets) is not just talk. As for deeper topics like how the US government uses conflicts and other means to attract more funds into the US, everyone can freely think about these within this system. That's all, DYOR

Circle's cirBTC supply has exceeded 5,000 BTC, mainly used for DeFi collateral on Ethereum and Arbitrum, whereas in mid-August this number was only 40. In less than a month, the circulating supply has grown more than a hundredfold. This not only indicates that Circle is trying to enter the BTC-backed market but is also an important part of Ajian's deconstruction of the Dollar 2.0 system. On the surface, the scale is still far from WBTC and cbBTC, but the significance behind it is self-evident. Strongly bullish on $CRCL

A-Jian's little tip: LayerZero plans to stop off-chain support for 13 networks including Aurora, Taiko, and opBNB starting from September 30, once again proving that not all chains can permanently receive bridging, validation, execution, and liquidity services. Cross-chain infrastructure is beginning to phase out low-activity chains. Even if you see a chain still running, it doesn't mean it still has full cross-chain services. So if you have assets on Stargate or other LayerZero-related chains, quickly check whether you need to migrate and verify the official bridges and contracts

The contracts on Polymarket about whether Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Bank of America will collapse are drawing attention from the FDIC and Congress. Ajian thinks this is like repeatedly jumping around a minefield. Although the trading volume is not large, it touches on issues of financial stability and bank runs. Polymarket is already deeply stuck in the quagmire of identity and regulation. Instead of clarifying market boundaries and risk rules promptly, it dares to touch on predictions about banks, sovereigns, and financial institutions, which is somewhat reckless 😅

Today's strong assets are not all meme $SUI has an on-chain ecosystem $NEAR has privacy and AI narratives $LDO has staking $ENA has buybacks and supply restructuring $PUMP has platform revenue Capital is looking for assets with stories + business, high beta still carries high risk

On September 25, the US $SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $86.67M, with total AUM reaching approximately $1.964B. From this perspective, SOL's rise today is not just a simple meme rotation; such a scale of institutional funds is providing a new allocation entry for SOL. ETF, network activity, and ecosystem capital are all jointly driving the price. Of course, SOL's beta is still higher than $BTC, so you can first watch the $115-$117 support level, then see if ETF inflows can continue.

Yesterday, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury surged to 5.48%, hitting a new high since 2004, and the 10-year yield also briefly reached 5.2%; meanwhile, US corporate capital expenditures remain strong, with August core capital goods orders beating expectations; the US dollar index also once approached 101. This creates a very typical combination: a strong dollar, high US Treasury yields, and high oil prices. When these three factors appear simultaneously for global non-dollar assets, the pressure is usually significant. Ajian chose to go long on $BZ directly 😵#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温

It seems that many friends don't really care much about the production cost metric. Ajian believes that for $BTC, this is also a quite important fundamental indicator. According to JPMorgan's estimate, this figure is currently about $85K, and BTC recently broke through this level, ending the awkward period of about 280 days below production cost, easing some of the cash flow and selling pressure on mining companies. It's important to know that if mining companies stay below production cost for a long time, selling coins becomes a survival behavior. Only when the price stands above the cost line do miners have a chance to reduce forced selling. Of course, production cost is not an absolute support line. Different miners have large differences in electricity prices, equipment, and debt structures, and not all miners will choose to hold coins when the price is above production cost. But Ajian believes $85K is still a mining psychological line worth watching

New York and Polymarket are suing each other over the legality of prediction markets. This topic has long been a recurring discussion in the prediction market space. The biggest risk for Polymarket currently is the redefinition of its compliance status. It can be considered an information market, but it might also be viewed by state regulators as a BC platform. Everything depends on the product structure, user location, settlement method, and legal definitions. The current situation is that the faster it grows, the more funding it raises, and the more users it has, the easier it is for regulators to treat it as a financial and BC infrastructure. Compared to fundraising and token issuance, clarifying the platform's identity is the most urgent task for Polymarket.

Among the $351.6M assets involved in this Bitget incident, about $192.6M have been transferred or processed, most of which were converted into ETH, effectively bringing another wave of supply to ETH 🤡. The primary demand for large stolen assets is not narrative but liquidity and cross-chain transfer efficiency. As the settlement layer, escape layer, and collateral layer, ETH is naturally the first to be affected. This does not mean ETH's security is poor or its fundamentals have deteriorated. Additionally, BG's team immediately stated that private keys were not leaked, and the issue is suspected to stem from the wallet backend system forging transfer information. The protection fund can cover the losses. Ajian believes that users not losing funds and the system having no issues are not the same thing. Private keys not being leaked does not mean backend permissions, transfer verification, and risk control processes are flawless. Hopefully, it won't end up with North Korean hackers taking all the blame again. As for ordinary traders, when such incidents occur, it's best not to immediately speculate on coin prices. Confirming withdrawals, deposits, asset snapshots, official announcements, and the coverage scope of protection funds is more important. Even more crucial is managing security from the start: do not keep all long-term assets on exchanges, and do not concentrate all liquidity in one place due to platform activities, yields, or sentiment. Finally, the reason the market did not crash instantly is that funds believe the losses are controllable. But true trust cannot be restored by a few statements alone.