We need to avoid "Grandpa and Grandma coins": the fate of these coins is often to cut retail investors like chives and go to zero In the cryptocurrency circle, there is a type of coin that is always the most lively and also the most dangerous—"Grandpa and Grandma coins." They have such a low threshold that almost no barrier is needed, and their narrative is so simple that even grandpas and grandmas at the market can understand it. Their communities often reach tens of millions, and when sentiment surges, the price can skyrocket. $CORE and $PI are typical examples. But remember one thing: what you really should do is to stay far away from them. Because the ultimate fate of these coins, in the vast majority of cases, is only one thing—to repeatedly cut waves of retail investors like chives, then the price goes to zero or approaches zero infinitely. History has repeatedly proven this. What are "Grandpa and Grandma coins"? "Grandpa and Grandma coins" are not an official classification but a precise joke within the community about a type of coin. They usually have these characteristics: Extremely simple participation: mining by clicking on a phone, Telegram mini-games, daily check-ins to "earn coins." Narrative extremely accessible: no complex technology, only talking about "everyone can participate," "community wealth sharing," "changing the world in the future." User structure highly retail: a large number of ordinary people and middle-aged and elderly investors who are new to cryptocurrency. Market driven entirely by sentiment: FOMO causes a surge, sentiment fades and it crashes, fundamentals can almost be ignored. $CORE (Core DAO) attracted a lot of attention with its simple packaging of "Bitcoin security + smart contracts"; PI (Pi Network) accumulated a huge "pioneer" community through years of phone-click mining. After launching on OKX, they instantly became the focus of retail discussion. But this is precisely the beginning of danger. Representatives of similar "Grandpa and Grandma coins" on OKX Currently, on OKX, coins with spot trading and obvious "Grandpa and Grandma" attributes include (dynamic and for warning reference only): Tap-to-Earn / Click mining type PI (Pi Network) $NOT (Notcoin) HMSTR (Hamster Kombat) CATI (Catizen) Classic Meme and sentiment-driven type DOGE, SHIB TRUMP (Official Trump) PEPE, BONK, FLOKI, MEW, BOME, TURBO, etc. Other accessible narrative types CORE (Core DAO) PEOPLE and other historical community coins These coins frequently appear on OKX's hot lists and Meme sections, with trading pairs mainly in USDT. The platform's low-threshold trading experience actually accelerates the influx of retail investors. Why do most of them eventually lead to "cutting retail investors like chives and going to zero"? No real value capture: the vast majority live on sentiment and expectations; once the mainnet launches, unlocking dumps, or the narrative fades, support instantly disappears. User structure determines fate: after many "Grandpa and Grandma" style retail investors buy at high prices, liquidity dries up, and prices can only go down. Project teams and early holders' harvesting logic: accumulate chips at low cost → create FOMO on exchanges → sell at high prices → retail investors take over. This is a script verified countless times. Historical data does not lie: from early "everyone mines" coins to recent Telegram mini-game coins, the vast majority have retraced 80%-99% from their highs within months to a year after listing, even going to zero. The sharp fluctuations after PI's launch and the rapid decline of various click-game coins are vivid examples. Although CORE has some technical narrative, its performance after retail sentiment fades is also not optimistic. Final words The crypto market never lacks stories, but it lacks sobriety. "Grandpa and Grandma coins" are best at using the simplest stories to deceive the most naive hopes. They can bring short-term carnival, but after the carnival, what remains is often a mess and zeroed K-lines. Those who truly survive long-term and make money rarely bet on these coins. Instead of chasing these "everyone can earn" illusions on OKX, it's better to spend time and funds on assets with real technical barriers and sustainable value. Remember: avoiding Grandpa and Grandma coins is not missing opportunities but avoiding traps. The fate of these coins has never been shared wealth but cutting retail investors like chives and going to zero.

#本周FOMC揭晓, will the rate hike be implemented? Tonight, the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise by 25 basis points, and dovish remarks must be treated as a blessing in disguise; otherwise, the midterm elections might put some pressure on the Yellow Hair. Believe in Yellow Hair, believe in Walsh $BTC #10年期美债收益率突破5%

#沙特关闭关键输油管道，供应风险升级 According to current data, the US is going to raise interest rates, but the rate hike expectations are already very high. It is highly likely that the rate will be raised by 25 basis points and then the negative impact will be fully priced in. Afterwards, Trump will announce negotiations with Iran and the cancellation of tariffs with Canada because he wants to pass the midterm elections. The market has actually already priced in the rate hike expectations in advance, and this wave will take off. The core logic of this round of the market is not the rate hike itself, but the expectation gap. Recently, inflation data has been fluctuating, US Treasury yields have continued to rise, and funds have already preemptively bet on this tightening. The market pricing has long included a 25bp rate hike, which means the real negative impact has already been reflected in asset prices. As long as the Federal Reserve does not release a more hawkish signal beyond market expectations, simply implementing the scheduled rate hike is a typical "the boot has dropped," meaning the negative impact is fully priced in. Once the rate hike decision is made, the uncertainty hanging over the market will quickly dissipate, and the accumulated cautious funds will gradually enter the market to push up risk assets. From the perspective of the midterm election timeline, Trump still has many policy tools to stabilize the market and win over voters. On one hand, he promotes negotiations with Iran to ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, directly suppressing market panic expectations of a sharp rise in oil prices and eliminating the biggest variable of energy inflation; on the other hand, he cancels tariffs on some Canadian goods, repairing the North American supply chain, reducing import costs, and alleviating domestic price pressures. Essentially, these two moves are pre-election operations to stabilize people's livelihoods and the market, using diplomacy to ease tensions and trade liberalization to offset the economic pressure caused by rate hikes, creating a short-term prosperous market to build momentum for the election. Many people are still focusing on the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and bearish on the market, but they overlook a key point: the market never trades on current news but on changes in expectations. The rate hike has been repeatedly traded and risks have been released in advance; however, the dividends brought by Middle East reconciliation and tariff cancellations have not been fully priced in yet. The decline in geopolitical risks, the reduction in trade costs combined with the realization of rate hike negatives, and multiple positive factors resonating will quickly raise market risk appetite. US stocks, commodities, and the crypto market will all usher in a phase of rally. Of course, this should be viewed objectively. This wave is a short-term rally driven by the election cycle, not a long-term fundamental reversal. The rise brought by policy dividends has a time window, and the foundation of the rally is election demands, not sustained economic strength. Once the midterm elections settle, the short-term policy support will disappear, and previously hidden issues such as debt and inflation will return to focus, causing the market logic to switch again. But at this stage, with the rate hike implemented combined with a series of diplomatic and trade benefits, the window for funds to go long has opened, and this round of the market has the conditions to continue moving upward. $ETH $BTC #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期

Brothers, this week altcoins have taken off across the board, especially $ZEC. Its similar token $ARX also surged, rising from 0.1 to a high of 0.16. Today is Friday, the market is all bearish, the Fed most likely won't raise rates, and actually can't raise rates anymore; another hike would really cause a crash. Nearby, the Houthis and Iran are also constantly stirring up geopolitical tensions, $CL has even reached 100. Next week, I expect Monday to Wednesday to rise, Thursday and Friday to dip, then the Fed will announce that the market is under control and no rate hike. Everyone takes off #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温

Even those who exploit others can themselves be exploited. If you encounter your own idealized love like this, would you also be deceived? A girl patiently spends an hour filing his nails, speaking regretful words of love, while he secretly has prepared more than forty pages of investigation files. Knowing full well that the other's words don't match the truth, he chooses to see through it but not expose it, willingly indulging in this gentle illusion. Love and suspicion become intertwined this way.

Arcium ($ARX) Unlock Market Review｜A Rational Discussion on This Round's Trend and Subsequent Positioning Logic On August 22, the Arcium unlock window officially closed. I believe friends who held positions throughout or observed have gained a very direct impression of this round's ARX market trend. After this unlock event, the market naturally surged to around 0.14. Many holders successfully took profits at the high, while others chose to continue holding, hoping for further market continuation. Combining this unlock rhythm, token release rules, market capital behavior, and the project's development status, I want to objectively and neutrally review this round's market and share my genuine views on ARX's future trend for all holders' reference. First, let's objectively outline the core logic of this round's market. The August unlock is a key release point for Arcium's early private sale and team tokens, and a major bearish event long anticipated by the market. In the crypto market, most large token unlocks are short-term sentiment-driven sell-offs where "the bad news is fully priced in," and ARX perfectly fits this pattern. Market sentiment was cautious before the unlock, with selling pressure expectations high. After the unlock, funds took advantage of the sentiment to push prices up, reaching a peak of 0.14. However, close market observation shows this surge was purely driven by sentiment capital, with no incremental fundamental support. During this rally, there were no simultaneous announcements of ecosystem launches, technical upgrades, major partnerships, or institutional buying—purely a last round of induced buying fueled by the "bad news release" expectation. Such unlock-driven surges without fundamental backing have historically been near-term top signals across many crypto assets. Moving on from the market, let's rationally discuss Arcium's current project status. From a sector perspective, ARX focuses on privacy-preserving confidential computing within the Solana ecosystem. The sector narrative itself is sound and a popular Web3 niche. But whether a project has long-term viability is never about the sector alone; it depends on the project's actual delivery progress and operational rhythm. Friends who have followed the project for a while should sense that Arcium has long been heavy on promotion but light on delivery. Early on, leveraging a strong sector, Solana ecosystem endorsement, and solid fundraising background, it built high community enthusiasm and attention. Early airdrops, testnets, and node mining attracted many users to enter and stay active, keeping community engagement high. But beyond the hype, substantive progress has been slow. For a long time, the project team's external communications mostly consist of ecosystem outlooks, technical visions, and future plans—long-term narratives lacking tangible, perceptible, and verifiable product updates. Core sector advantages like confidential computing deployment, on-chain privacy applications, and AI computing empowerment remain confined to whitepapers and promotional tweets, with no large-scale ecosystem integration, no real on-chain data support, and no sustained commercial use cases. For crypto projects, narratives without delivery are ultimately castles in the air. Returning to the crucial token and capital logic, this is also my core reason for a cautious outlook. After the August 22 unlock, the biggest market risk has surfaced. Early low-cost team and private sale tokens are now circulating, and the 0.14 high price provided ample profit-taking space for early holders. The most obvious feature of this surge is: old tokens decisively exiting, new capital weak in support. Volume expanded rapidly during the rise, but momentum was severely lacking afterward, unable to hold the high ground, with very weak bullish strength. This means the current market is not driven by new main players entering but a typical pattern of existing capital battling and old holders selling on sentiment. Historically, unlock + no positive news + high-volume stagnation is the most typical trend reversal signal. After short-term sentiment-driven speculation ends, the market returns to rationality, and prices propped up by narratives and expectations gradually revert to real value. Sustained rebounds are unlikely, and the market will probably enter a prolonged phase of choppy decline. Many holders may harbor wishful thinking, believing that the bad news release is actually good news and expecting a second rally. But considering ARX's current state, the project lacks conditions to support a new market uptrend. First, fundamentals show no incremental growth, with no new stories or positive news to drive sentiment; second, heavy trapped positions between 0.12-0.14 create strong overhead resistance; third, early profit-taking tokens have not fully cleared, causing ongoing selling pressure; fourth, overall market sentiment favors rotation, with hot topics shifting quickly, making it hard for niche narrative projects to attract new capital. Objectively, Arcium is not a pure vaporware project—it has a sector narrative, fundraising background, and a foundational community, which explains why it could rally after the unlock. But in crypto, projects that do not progress, lack delivery, and rely on past achievements are the biggest bearish factor. The team repeatedly harvesting sentiment from early hype without deepening product development, delivering ecosystem, or maintaining long-term market value will eventually erode all community confidence. Regarding holding positions going forward, I maintain a rational and neutral stance. Friends who have taken profits at the high should patiently observe and avoid buying back on dips; those still holding should not panic sell but must temper expectations. Do not expect a short-term violent rally; the market will likely simmer down with a slow, grinding decline. Each small rebound will probably be an opportunity to reduce positions and exit. The crypto market always prices in expectations beyond reality. When a project's positives are fully priced, tokens loosen, and fundamentals stagnate, subsequent declines tend to be silent and persistent. The 0.14 price basically locks in a phase high. Going forward, patience to exchange time for space, cautious holding, and risk control will always be the primary trading principles. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？

ZEC Takes the Lead in This Bull Market Rally, Privacy Narrative's Celebration and Concerns Amid Macro Trends In this crypto artificial bull market triggered by the U.S. election cycle and U.S. debt interventions, Bitcoin continues to rise as the market's anchor, but the true independent performer leading the sector's charge is not an ordinary altcoin, but the long-silent privacy leader ZEC (Zcash). During multiple periods of market volatility and pullbacks, ZEC repeatedly bucked the trend with strong rallies, significantly outperforming Bitcoin, becoming the standout dark horse of this bull run and bringing the privacy narrative back to the center stage of the crypto market. Many traders have realized that this round of ZEC's rise is no longer a brief thematic speculation as in past bull markets, but the result of multiple factors resonating together: halving, on-chain supply, regulatory environment, and institutional capital. Its fate is tightly bound to the broader U.S. macro and election cycle environment. Looking back at previous bull markets, privacy coins were often just temporary hotspots, with rapid rises followed by swift declines. Previously, the privacy sector faced regulatory pressure, many exchanges delisted privacy coins, and institutional funds hesitated to enter, leaving ZEC in a prolonged slump and the market once labeling it as an outdated coin. However, this cycle has fundamentally changed. Zcash's unique optional privacy architecture balances private transactions with compliance auditing, featuring a viewing key mechanism that allows institutions to audit assets, distinguishing it from fully untraceable privacy coins and securing survival space amid strict regulations. The U.S. SEC ended its investigation into the Zcash Foundation without enforcement action, removing the largest regulatory burden hanging over the project for years. Grayscale also submitted an application to convert ZEC into a spot ETF, fully igniting institutional entry expectations, and large capital has begun to reassess the investment value of the privacy sector. Supply-side tightening is the core underlying logic behind ZEC's current rally. At the end of 2024, ZEC will undergo its second halving, cutting block rewards in half and sharply reducing token inflation, significantly lowering new coin selling pressure. Meanwhile, the on-chain shielded pool continues to expand, with large amounts of ZEC moving into shielded addresses, removing these tokens from exchanges and shrinking the circulating spot supply. As buying pressure concentrates, insufficient order book depth on exchanges easily causes slippage-driven surges, where small amounts of capital can trigger large price swings. This explains why ZEC often posts large single-day green candles and liquidates many short contracts. Institutional capital and whales keep accumulating on-chain, contract market positions multiply, and intense long-short battles further amplify price elasticity. The macro environment adds fuel to ZEC's price action. Globally, on-chain analytics tools are becoming more powerful, eroding Bitcoin's so-called anonymity as every transaction can be tagged and tracked, leaving ordinary users' asset activities exposed. Europe and the U.S. continuously introduce stricter anti-money laundering regulations and tighten transaction monitoring, increasing market demand for censorship resistance and financial privacy. The "free money" narrative is gaining traction. Coupled with the current U.S. election cycle, artificial market support has warmed overall crypto liquidity, and in a broadly bullish market, capital seeks narratives not yet fully priced in. The privacy sector thus experiences a breakout. When Bitcoin consolidates, ZEC takes up the charge, leading a collective rally among smaller privacy coins and becoming a market sentiment barometer. However, we must distinguish that ZEC has real fundamental support but also contains significant bull market speculative sentiment. In this rally, part of the price increase stems from genuine on-chain privacy demand, while another part is driven by speculative capital frenzy. Many retail investors are attracted by the gains and rush in, derivatives leverage is aggressively increased, and large-scale short liquidations repeatedly push prices sharply higher. Prices often quickly detach from fundamental reasonable ranges, with weekly indicators entering severe overbought zones multiple times, risking sharp corrections at any moment. ZEC's fate remains tied to the broader market. As mentioned, the current crypto market largely benefits from the artificial bull market ahead of the midterm elections. If the election cycle ends, U.S. debt pressures rise again, and liquidity recedes, even if the privacy narrative remains intact, ZEC will struggle to stand alone. Historically, ZEC's volatility far exceeds Bitcoin's, with steep rises in bull markets and equally dramatic declines in bear markets. Risks remain overhead: Grayscale's ETF application may not be approved smoothly, global regulators remain cautious about privacy assets, and any negative regulatory news could trigger rapid sell-offs. Network protocol upgrades and on-chain governance votes will continue to disturb market sentiment, and any technical vulnerabilities could spark panic selling. At present, ZEC is still in a strong phase of this bull market, having proven it can lead the charge during market volatility. For traders, it is important not to be swept away by the profit-making frenzy and to avoid simple linear price extrapolations. Distinguish between long-term fundamentals and bull market bubbles. Shielded pool data, ETF approval progress, U.S. debt yields, and Bitcoin market trends are core signals to monitor continuously. If the artificial bull market driven by the election cycle continues and the privacy narrative deepens, ZEC still has room to rally further; but if the macro winds shift and the bull market turns, ZEC's high elasticity means its downside risk is also significant. Investors can enjoy the dividends from its charge but must implement risk controls, as high leverage is especially dangerous with this coin. During the celebration, prepare profit-taking plans in advance. $ZEC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入

An Artificial Bull Market Under Strong Intervention in U.S. Treasury Bonds, the Turning Point Behind the Frenzy in the Election Cycle The biggest focus in the global financial markets recently has been the strong suppression of the U.S. Treasury bond market, combined with a series of significant statements from the U.S. political arena, which have driven risk assets to collectively rebound. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have simultaneously experienced a strong rally, and the market is filled with an atmosphere of a bull market returning. However, this round of market activity is not entirely driven by economic fundamentals; it is largely mixed with political demands related to the midterm elections, with clear signs of artificial market support. Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have surged dramatically, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching as high as 5.34%, a nearly 20-year high. The total U.S. debt has surpassed the $40 trillion mark. Massive deficits and continuous sell-offs by overseas buyers have sharply increased selling pressure in the Treasury market. Rising long-term yields directly increase borrowing costs across society, putting valuation pressure on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals. If the bond market spirals out of control, it will directly impact domestic livelihoods and cast a huge shadow over the ruling party’s election prospects. Facing this bond market crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department took the lead by announcing an increase in the single repurchase size of long-term Treasuries from $2 billion to $4 billion, injecting liquidity into the market through bond repurchases to forcibly suppress long-term yields and stabilize the bond market. However, the actual effect of this repurchase was very short-lived. After the announcement, yields briefly fell but within a day the pressure returned, and yields quickly rebounded. A simple Treasury repurchase is unlikely to reverse the fundamental selling pressure caused by the massive debt. Just as the market worried about the failure of rescue tools, former President Trump made a highly controversial statement. When asked by reporters about the ultimate intervention tools for the bond market, he bluntly said the ultimate intervention is the U.S. military, and that this card would be used if necessary. This statement caused a huge stir in global markets, with interpretations divided. Some viewed it as mere campaign rhetoric, while others interpreted it as a signal that to maintain the U.S. Treasury system, geopolitical conflicts might be used to force global capital back into Treasuries for safe haven, using external means to solve internal debt problems. Regardless of whether the statement will be implemented, it has sent a clear signal to the market: the current administration absolutely does not want to see a bond market collapse or asset price crash. With the November U.S. midterm elections approaching, which will determine control of both houses of Congress and directly affect subsequent policy implementation, the authorities want to prevent stock market crashes and sustained bear markets in risk assets before the election. Seeing red in asset accounts is more favorable for votes, making the demand for an artificial bull market particularly strong. After the bond market was forcibly supported, liquidity expectations improved, and risk assets quickly responded. The U.S. tech sector strengthened, and Bitcoin, colloquially known as the “big second pancake” in the community, took off simultaneously, breaking free from the long period of consolidation and bottoming, with a sharp rally. Many shorts were liquidated, market sentiment warmed rapidly, and many traders began to firmly believe a new bull market has officially started. From the current market perspective, the short-term bull market atmosphere indeed exists. The Treasury repurchase program will continue until November 4, covering the critical window of the midterm elections. Until the election results are finalized, there is strong policy motivation to maintain market conditions and avoid sharp declines. As long as Treasury yields do not spiral out of control again and liquidity expectations remain loose, stocks and cryptocurrencies will have momentum to continue rising. This is the underlying logic for the current market’s sustainability. However, we must distinguish that this is a phase of artificially driven market activity due to the election, not a long-term bull market caused by a fundamental economic turnaround. Artificial intervention can delay risks but cannot fundamentally resolve the debt problem. The U.S. $40 trillion debt will not disappear out of thin air; fiscal deficits remain high, inflation risks and Middle East geopolitical conflicts still loom overhead. These real issues have not been solved, only temporarily masked by liquidity operations. There is a common view in the market: continue to enjoy the bull market dividends for now, but the real bear market will come after the midterm elections are settled. This logic has practical basis. During the election cycle, the ruling party will release as many positive signals as possible to prop up asset prices to win voter favor; but once the election ends and the pressure of votes disappears, the motivation for artificial market support will significantly weaken. At that time, Treasury repurchases will expire, fiscal pressure will resurface, and the temporarily suppressed Treasury yield risks may return. As liquidity recedes, the various risk assets previously pushed up will face sharp corrections. Historical market patterns around U.S. midterm elections are also worth noting. The period before elections is often turbulent, and after elections, the market returns to real fundamentals. Many policy-driven rallies reverse after the election concludes. Of course, this does not mean an immediate cliff-like crash right after the election; there will be a buffer and repeated oscillations, not a simple on-off switch. But traders should be clear that the current rise is heavily mixed with political support and should not be taken as a purely fundamental bull market. This round of market activity also teaches all investors a lesson: macro and political cycles profoundly influence asset prices. We can ride the current bull market trend but should not blindly go all-in or place all hopes on policy support. Always monitor changes in Treasury yields, track follow-up adjustments to Treasury repurchase policies, and closely watch the progress of the midterm elections. It is possible to profit from this artificial bull market before the election, but be mentally prepared. When the election results come in and policy support wanes, be alert to the quiet arrival of bear market risks. Prepare to take profits and manage positions in advance, and do not let short-term gains cloud your judgment. $ETH $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入

SK Hynix Korea is about to launch a buyback On August 19, 2026, SK Hynix officially announced that its board of directors had approved a share buyback and cancellation plan totaling approximately 40 trillion KRW (approximately 28.6 billion USD), setting a record for the largest share buyback in the history of a Korean listed company. Based on the previous day's closing price, about 24.07 million shares will be repurchased, accounting for about 3.3% of total share capital. The buyback period will last about three months starting August 20, with all shares canceled after completion. The company also raised its cumulative free cash flow shareholder return target for 2025-2027 to "over 50%" and stated it will simultaneously promote dividend increases. This move is based on the company's belief that the current stock price significantly underestimates the competitiveness of its AI memory business and strong cash generation capabilities, with net cash reaching about 69 trillion KRW as of the end of Q2. This is an accelerated implementation of existing shareholder return policies and sends a clear signal of value revaluation to the market. SanDisk MU followed suit After the news broke, Micron Technology (MU) and American storage stocks such as SanDisk (SNDK) quickly reacted in coordination. The storage sector is highly homogeneous, with structural shortages of HBM, DRAM, and NAND in AI data centers as a common driver. Hynix's buyback as the global leader in HBM is interpreted as confirmation that the entire industry has entered a "high profit + high return" phase. Recently, Micron and SanDisk have strengthened continuously due to AI demand, long-term contract lockups, and their own return plans. Hynix's buybacks further reinforce sector sentiment, with short-term funds tending to mirror the shareholder-friendly policies of Korean giants onto their US counterparts, driving both to rally together. This linkage is both sentiment transmission and a collective bet on the on-end storage supercycle. Will exhausting all the good news lead to negative ones? The concern that "good news exhausts negative news" is not unfounded, especially given the cumulative sharp rise in stock prices and intensified macro interest rates and geopolitical volatility, some short-term funds may choose to realize profits. However, simply judging by "exhausting all profits" is inaccurate. Repurchases are not one-time events but sustained buying support over the next three months, combined with cancellations directly reducing capital and raising per-share indicators, which still have positive effects in the medium term. More importantly, the tight supply-demand situation for AI memory remains unchanged; SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk's performance and cash flow still heavily depend on this fundamental. If subsequent quarterly guidance remains strong and prices remain high, buybacks will be more like "icing on the cake" rather than a "final blow." The real risk lies in slowing demand pace or capacity expansion exceeding expectations, not in buybacks themselves. Let's see the results when the market opens tomorrow Tomorrow (August 20), the US and Korean stock markets will open, which will be a key window to test the market's true attitude. Investors need to closely monitor whether SK Hynix's stock price can stabilize after the buyback officially begins, whether Micron and SanDisk's follow-up gains continue, and the overall semiconductor sector's trading volume and capital flows. If the market surges and then retreats after the opening, it is normal for sentiment to digest; If it can maintain relative strength supported by buying demand, it indicates that funds recognize the dual drivers of "accelerated shareholder returns + AI demand." Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but in the medium term, a return to supply-demand and earnings verification is still needed. The storage sector faces both opportunities and risks; rationally viewing the opening results is more important than blindly chasing gains or panic selling. #闪迪回落逾9%, valuation divergence in storage has intensified $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX

The current memory chip industry is in an AI-driven super cycle, not on the brink of death. SK hynix, as the absolute leader in HBM, has indeed been the first to realize the most extreme profit explosion, but its uniqueness does not mean the entire memory sector has reached its end. On the contrary, the supply-demand gap for general DRAM, enterprise SSDs, and related NAND products continues to widen, with a clear upward price trend and a long expansion cycle, making a bubble burst unlikely in the short term. More importantly, related U.S. memory technology companies have not yet launched large-scale "bloodsucking" IPOs, and capital exit pressure has not yet been concentratedly released, further delaying the arrival of the cycle peak. Looking at the fundamentals first. In the first half of 2026, the global memory market remains tight, driven by AI server demand. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to reach about 25%, NAND close to 20%, while new capacity is constrained by the complexity of advanced processes, EUV equipment, and new factory construction cycles, making significant short-term release difficult. SK hynix, leveraging its leading position in HBM3E/HBM4, achieved revenue exceeding 130 trillion KRW in the first half, with record net profits and a gross margin above 80%, with significant contributions from customers like Nvidia. But its core logic is "high value-added products first," and prices for ordinary server DRAM and enterprise SSDs are also rising sharply, with peers like Samsung and Micron also showing high growth. Inventory levels are generally at historic lows (2-4 weeks), far below levels before the downturn cycle. Long-term supply agreements (LTA) coverage has increased to 50%-70%, locking in demand visibility for the coming years. All these indicate that this is not a traditional cyclical short-term speculation but a structural shortage. SK hynix is an "exception" because it was the earliest and most deeply tied to the AI computing power chain. Its HBM market share has long been maintained above 55%, with deep collaboration with Nvidia, strong pricing power, and profit margins far exceeding peers. However, it is notably specialized—its NAND share is relatively weak and highly dependent on a few large customers. Once HBM supply and demand gradually balance, or Chinese manufacturers (ChangXin Memory, Yangtze Memory) accelerate substitution in general DRAM and mature NAND, SK hynix's excess profits may converge. However, this does not drag down the entire memory industry: demand for high-capacity DRAM for servers and QLC enterprise SSDs is still exploding, and storage content in automotive and edge AI devices is also increasing. 2027 has been warned by many as the "most severe memory shortage in history," with real capacity ramp-up expected in the second half of 2027 to 2028. The supply-demand mismatch will continue for at least 1-2 years. The "bloodsucking" from the capital side has not fully started, which is an important buffer against a bubble burst. SK hynix itself listed on Nasdaq in July 2026 in the form of ADRs, with a record fundraising scale, but this was more about valuation re-rating and opening the channel to U.S. investors rather than large-scale sell-offs. The real potential "bloodsucking" pressure comes from U.S. related entities not yet listed. For example, SK hynix's U.S. NAND subsidiary Solidigm (formerly Intel's NAND business) has started Pre-IPO financing with a target valuation exceeding $35 billion and is actively preparing for Nasdaq listing. Once the official IPO releases circulating shares, it may trigger phased profit-taking and valuation volatility. Another potential target is other U.S. memory-related tech companies (such as those focused on enterprise SSDs or new storage solutions), which remain private and have not yet undergone large-scale capital extraction through public markets. The pace of their IPOs will determine the rhythm of capital exit. Until they complete IPOs and fully digest valuations, the industry overall still tends to see capital inflows rather than outflows, lacking the fuse for a bubble burst. Historically, memory cycle peaks are often accompanied by concentrated capacity releases, inventory accumulation, and capital frenzied cashing out. The current situation is completely different: cautious capacity expansion (prioritizing HBM and high value-added products), customers locked into long-term agreements, and although domestic Chinese substitution is accelerating, it is difficult to fill the high-end gap in the short term. From a valuation perspective, even though SK hynix, Micron, and others have risen sharply, forward P/E ratios remain relatively controllable after profit explosions, and the market is trading more on "shortage sustainability" rather than pure bubbles. ChangXin Memory's listing on the STAR Market caused a brief fluctuation but did not reverse the global supply-demand tightness. Of course, risks always exist. If AI capital expenditure slows significantly, geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains, or new capacity is unexpectedly released early, the cycle may turn earlier. But based on current data, demand in 2026-2027 will still exceed supply, and price levels are expected to remain high. The memory industry is far from dead; SK hynix's outstanding performance is just a leading indicator, not a terminal signal. U.S. related tech companies have not completed their "bloodsucking" IPOs, meaning the capital feast still has chapters to come, and the bubble burst countdown is far from starting. Investors need to focus on supply-demand data, long-term agreement progress, and new capacity timelines, rather than simply watching short-term valuation fluctuations. This AI-redefined memory super cycle can still continue for a while. #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低

Recently, the Strait of Hormuz has once again fallen into a state of effective closure. This US-Iran conflict, which erupted at the end of February 2026, has lasted for over 170 days. Although there were brief memorandums of understanding and limited navigation attempts in between, Iran has clearly stated that the strait will not truly return to normal commercial navigation until the US meets a series of conditions including lifting the maritime blockade, removing sanctions, and unfreezing assets. About one-fifth of global oil trade originally depended on this chokepoint waterway, but now vessel traffic has dropped to single-digit percentages of pre-war levels. War risk insurance premiums have soared to 30 times the usual rate, and Brent crude oil prices have climbed back above $90. The sharp rise in energy costs has directly pushed up global inflation expectations, while the US Treasury's massive debt issuance has compounded this, causing US Treasury yields to rise across the board. The 30-year Treasury yield once touched its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year yield is also approaching multi-year peaks. The bond market sell-off is transmitting to the stock market, putting risk assets under repricing pressure. Against this macro backdrop, the probability of a sharp plunge in US stocks after tonight's opening has significantly increased. Historical experience shows that when energy shocks and rising interest rates occur simultaneously, growth stocks and high-valuation tech stocks often bear the brunt first. The semiconductor sector, as the core beneficiary of this AI rally, has already accumulated huge gains, and its valuation elasticity has correspondingly amplified downside risks. Especially those memory chip manufacturers highly dependent on global supply chains and terminal demand prosperity are more vulnerable to capital withdrawal when risk appetite sharply declines. Once the market enters a risk-off mode, funds tend to prioritize selling liquid and previously high-gain targets, creating a stampede effect. Based on the above logical chain, I recommend focusing on shorting SK Hynix opportunities. As a global leader in HBM high-bandwidth memory, Hynix's stock price has experienced multiple-fold increases amid the AI server demand boom, with its market value once surpassing Samsung to become Korea's largest. However, the current high oil prices may push up data center operating costs, while the high-interest-rate environment will suppress corporate capital expenditure willingness, potentially slowing AI infrastructure expansion. Coupled with weakening overall US stock sentiment, Hynix's US ADR and related derivatives are likely to become concentrated targets for shorts. Whether through direct shorting, using inverse ETFs, or leveraging futures and options tools, a relatively favorable window seems to have emerged timing-wise. Of course, short-term volatility is intense, so strict position management and stop-loss discipline must be observed. It is especially important to emphasize that geopolitical situations can dramatically turn at any time. Once the US and Iran reach a substantive agreement again and truly restore strait navigation, oil prices may fall and risk appetite recover, quickly reversing the current logic. Therefore, shorting operations are more suitable as tactical trades rather than long-term strategic holdings. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry itself still has strong long-term fundamental support, and AI demand will not disappear overnight. Investment decisions must be combined with one's own risk tolerance; blind following should be avoided. The market is always full of uncertainty, and tonight's plunge expectation may also be interrupted by unexpected positive news. Staying calm and thinking independently is key to navigating cycles. Finally, a reminder: the above analysis only represents my personal observation and deduction of the current macro and market environment and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets carry very high risks, past performance does not represent future results, please make decisions cautiously based on your own situation and consult professional advisors if necessary. Brothers, the market changes in an instant; may we all protect our principal amid volatility and seize the opportunities that truly belong to us. $SNDK $SKHYNIX #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高