毓鑫YuXin

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📅10.3｜Nonfarm payrolls were significantly below expectations, U.S. stocks strengthened directly, but BTC surged near 87,000 then gave back its gains. The macro conditions are indeed more comfortable than a few days ago, but the coin price hasn't fully absorbed the positive news. Don't chase over the weekend; focus on whether 84,000 can hold. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Gengxu. Geng metal sits on Xu earth, more like reshaping after the news lands. There’s no shortage of stories now, what’s lacking is whether funds are willing to stay. BTC is about $84,600, daily high around $87,070, low about $83,920. BTC outlook today: Support: 84,000–84,500 Strong support: 83,000–83,500 Resistance: 85,500–86,000 Strong resistance: 86,800–87,500 The most notable last night wasn’t touching 87,000, but failing to hold above it. If 84,000–84,500 can hold and then reclaim 86,000, there’s still a chance to test 87,000–87,500 later; if 84,000 breaks and the rebound fails, watch around 83,000. As always: holding steady is more important than just touching the level. ETH is about $2,678, daily range roughly $2,653–$2,768, also a rise then fall. ETH outlook today: Support: 2,650–2,680 Strong support: 2,600–2,630 Resistance: 2,720–2,750 Strong resistance: 2,800–2,850 ETH needs to reclaim 2,750 before aiming for 2,800. BTC has already tested 87,000, but ETH hasn’t taken 2,800 yet, indicating funds currently favor BTC; if it breaks 2,650, first watch 2,600–2,630 for support, and altcoins shouldn’t be chased hastily. Last night, U.S. September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, well below the market expectation of about 90,000; unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month, and July and August employment numbers were revised down by 60,000 combined. After the data release, the market priced in about a 22.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in October. But this report looks more like "low hiring, low layoffs," not yet a full deterioration in unemployment, so the market first trades on easing rate hike pressure rather than recession. All three major U.S. stock indexes rose: Dow closed at 51,176.96, up 0.49%; S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72, up 0.73%; Nasdaq closed at 27,190.86, up 1.19%, hitting a new closing high again. Next week focus: S&P: support 7,650–7,700 / resistance 7,780–7,800 Nasdaq: support 26,800–27,000 / resistance 27,300–27,500 The bond market reaction is even more worth watching. After the nonfarm release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell to about 5.17%, then rebounded to around 5.28%. The short end is trading a pause in rate hikes, while the long end remains pressured by fiscal, Treasury supply, and term premium. Keep watching 5.15% and 5.30%: breaking below 5.15% would significantly ease valuation pressure on risk assets; breaking above 5.30% again means caution when BTC and tech stocks approach resistance. Gold hasn’t fully benefited from the weak nonfarm data. Spot gold closed near $4,140, COMEX near-month gold futures closed at $4,133.70, down about 3.6% for the week. Gold focus: Support: 4,100–4,120 Strong support: 4,050–4,080 Resistance: 4,180–4,200 Strong resistance: 4,250 Normally, weak nonfarm and lower rate hike probability should benefit gold, but gold price fell back after rising, indicating long-term yields and previous profit-taking still weigh on it. Until 4,200 is firmly reclaimed, treat it as a weak recovery. Regarding oil, the G7 agreed to release about 100 million barrels of diesel and crude reserves over the coming months, with Europe planning to release diesel stocks and other members coordinating crude releases. WTI finally fell to $91.11, Brent closed at $102.25. The more comfortable macro chain has appeared: Cooling employment → lower rate hike expectations Reserve releases → easing oil price and inflation pressure Falling Treasury yields → benefits for Crypto, gold, and tech stocks But the last step hasn’t fully played out: the 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.3%. Today’s key levels: BTC: 84,000 / 86,000 ETH: 2,650 / 2,800 Gold: 4,100 / 4,200 S&P: 7,700 / 7,800 Nasdaq: 27,000 / 27,500 Geng metal sits on Xu earth, the news has landed, now it depends on whether prices can hold. If BTC can hold 84,000 and reclaim 86,000, this rally still has conditions to challenge above 87,000; if it can’t even hold 84,000 after the positive news, don’t make excuses for the market. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, making false breakouts most likely. Guess less, wait more, don’t chase the first candle, control position size, leverage, and stop loss. Do you think BTC will hold 86,000 first, or ETH will take 2,800 first? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.

☯️ 10.2｜BTC touched 85,000 again last night but couldn't hold above it, retreating to around 84,600 this morning. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, and crude oil suddenly spiked. Crypto prices can rebound, but macro pressures have not yet eased. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Jiyou. Earth (Ji) sits on Metal (You), leaning more towards "contraction and shaping." After continuous tug-of-war between bulls and bears, today let the price choose its own direction; don't chase the first candlestick. BTC is around $84,570, up about 1.3% in 24 hours, ranging between 83,200 and 85,162. Support is seen at 83,800–84,200, strong support at 83,000–83,300; resistance at 85,000–85,200, strong resistance at 86,000–86,500. A volume breakout above 85,200 with a successful retest points to 86,000–86,500 next; if it breaks below 83,800, watch for 83,000 to be tested again. The healthiest move now is to first stabilize 84,000, then turn 85,000 into support. ETH is around $2,700, up about 0.5% in 24 hours, ranging between 2,674 and 2,720. Support at 2,670–2,690, strong support at 2,620–2,650; resistance at 2,720–2,750, strong resistance at 2,800. Holding above 2,750 targets 2,800; breaking below 2,670 means watching 2,620–2,650 for support. If BTC breaks 85,000 but ETH remains near 2,700, the quality of this Risk-on rally is still limited. US stocks fell then rose last night: Dow up 0.04% to 50,926.74, S&P up 0.20% to 7,666.48, Nasdaq up 0.04% to 26,871.60. The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34% before retreating to around 5.24%, which was the main reason for the indexes turning positive. S&P support is at 7,600–7,650, resistance at 7,720–7,750; Nasdaq support at 26,500–26,700, resistance at 27,000–27,200. Yields falling back below 5.2% create a better repair environment for risk assets; a renewed break above 5.35% means the closer to resistance, the less you should chase. Gold spot was about $4,165 last night, December futures settled at $4,202.30, and spot fell back to about $4,145 this morning. Support at 4,100–4,120, strong support at 4,000–4,050; resistance at 4,180–4,200, strong resistance at 4,250. Holding above 4,200 is needed before talking about recovery; losing 4,100 means continuing defense. Crude oil is the biggest external variable today. Brent December contract surged 4.37% to $102.31, WTI rose 2.71% to $92.87. The US reportedly will deploy more aircraft carriers and troops to the Middle East, while Chinese refineries have suspended exports of refined oil products outside Hong Kong and Macau, intensifying global fuel supply concerns. The risk chain is clear: Middle East risk and tightening refined oil supply → Rising oil prices and inflation expectations → Pressure on long-term US Treasuries → Valuations of Crypto, gold, and tech stocks under pressure. Tonight also brings the US September nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting about 90,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.1%. If data is too strong, US Treasuries may surge again; a mild cooldown favors Risk-on; if too weak, watch for recession trades. Key levels to watch today: BTC: 83,800 / 85,200 ETH: 2,670 / 2,750 Gold: 4,100 / 4,200 S&P: 7,620 / 7,750 Nasdaq: 26,700 / 27,200 Earth (Ji) sits on Metal (You); today first watch if 84,000 can hold, then if 85,000 can turn from resistance into support. Before key levels confirm, guess less and wait more. Do you think BTC will hold above 85,200 first, or ETH will break 2,750 first? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.

☯️ 10.1｜PCE was milder than expected, but BTC didn’t take off. The reason is straightforward: inflation just eased a bit, yet the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back near 5.30%. Don’t rush to chase a strong start on the first day of Q4; holding 83,000 is more important than testing 85,000 once. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Wushen. Wutu sitting on Shenjing metal suggests "first contract, then set direction." Much of the prior sentiment has been digested; now price and macro conditions need to confirm the next phase together. BTC is around $83,480, basically flat over 24 hours, ranging between 82,951 and 85,518. Support is seen at 82,900–83,300, strong support at 82,000–82,500; resistance at 84,000–84,500, strong resistance at 85,000–85,500. Today, first reclaim 84,500 before talking about above 85,000; if 82,900 breaks and the rebound fails, look for support at 82,000–82,500. Only if this area also fails do we need to defend 80,000–81,000 again. The old view remains: holding ground is more important than just touching a level. ETH is about $2,684, up roughly 0.5% in 24 hours, ranging 2,658–2,737. Support at 2,650–2,670, strong support at 2,600–2,630; resistance at 2,720–2,750, strong resistance at 2,800. ETH must firmly hold 2,750 to qualify for challenging 2,800; if 2,650 breaks, watch if 2,600–2,630 can hold. 2,800 remains the altcoin sentiment switch; until it truly breaks through and confirms a retest, no rush to call full Risk-on. Last night US stocks continued to diverge: Dow down 0.86% to 50,906.05, S&P 500 down 0.25% to 7,651.54, Nasdaq up 0.24% to 26,861.06. After PCE release, the market briefly surged, but long-end Treasury yields kept rising, ultimately weighing down the broader market. S&P support at 7,600–7,650, resistance at 7,720–7,750; Nasdaq support at 26,500–26,700, resistance at 27,000–27,200. Tech stocks can still hold, but market breadth is uncomfortable; bond market remains the steering wheel. US August overall PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, 3.4% year-over-year; core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, 3.0% year-over-year, all milder than market fears. October rate hike pricing dropped to about 30–40%. But inflation relief didn’t lift bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 5.304%, closed around 5.29%, a new high since 2002. This shows the long-end market trades not just the next rate hike, but also fiscal, debt supply, and term premium pressures. So the key macro level today remains 5.30%. If yields fall back below 5.2%, BTC and tech stocks can truly breathe; if 5.30% holds or rises, risk assets near resistance should not be chased. Gold also confirms this logic. Spot gold fell about 0.6% to near $4,154, down about 6.6% in September; US gold futures settled at $4,186.70. Support at 4,100–4,120, strong support 4,050–4,080; resistance at 4,180–4,200, strong resistance 4,250. Only reclaim 4,200 before talking recovery; if 4,100 breaks, continue defending near 4,050. Oil: WTI settled at $90.42; Brent November contract settled at $103.50, but the more active December contract is about $98.03. This is a rollover period; don’t mistake the spread between contracts for an overnight crash. US-Iran talks stalled, fuel inventories tight, still supporting oil prices. The core market contradiction now is simple: PCE cools, lowering short-term rate hike expectations; Oil prices and long-end yields remain high, continuing to suppress Risk-on. The truly comfortable combo is WTI falling back below 90, 10-year yield returning below 5.2%, BTC reclaiming 84,500, ETH holding 2,750. Conversely, if US bonds keep hitting new highs and BTC breaks 82,900, don’t use “PCE below expectations” as a hard reason to go long. Good news without price movement is price feedback itself. Tonight watch US initial jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, and ISM manufacturing data; Friday is nonfarm payrolls. The first candle after data may not be the true direction; watch bonds first. Key levels today: BTC: 83,000 / 84,500 ETH: 2,650 / 2,750 Gold: 4,100 / 4,200 S&P: 7,620 / 7,750 Nasdaq: 26,700 / 27,200 Wutu sitting on Shenjing metal, Q4 starts by filtering noise. BTC can’t fall below 83,000, bond yields retreat from 5.3%, this round of recovery is worth following; if support breaks, exit as planned, don’t guess the bottom for the market. Do you think BTC will first reclaim 84,500 or first retest 82,500 in Q4’s first step? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.