Oli.
Oli.
🍓Web3投研 🍑人工智能 🚀《干翻狗庄》系列工具作者
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The G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products within four months. Roughly averaging over 120 days, this equates to about 830,000 barrels per day. The actual arrangement will release some diesel earlier; this calculation is just to help us understand the scale and should not be taken as a daily execution plan.
Seeing "100 million barrels" can indeed be reassuring, but the market consumes fuel every day. To judge whether this measure is sufficient, the total volume needs to be converted into release speed and then compared with the supply gap. Focusing only on a large number can easily lead to overestimating how long it can sustain.
There is also an easily overlooked aspect this time: the G7 has committed to avoiding restrictions on energy exports among members. If reserves are released on one hand while each member shuts down exports on the other, the relief the global market receives could be significantly reduced. Whether inventories can smoothly reach areas with fuel shortages also affects prices.
I think this arrangement has value, especially in easing short-term fuel tightness, but it will not immediately turn energy costs optimistic. What happens after four months and when the consumed reserves will be replenished still need to be faced.
For traders, the inventory release announcement can quickly change sentiment; for transportation companies, pressure only truly eases when procurement bills actually decrease. What is worth tracking next is the actual volume released—don’t let the same "100 million barrels" headline repeatedly create a sense of novelty.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
The increase in total crypto market capitalization does not mean that the same amount of money has just entered the market. This misunderstanding is especially prone to arise when ETFs show outflows: on one hand, people say institutions have withdrawn, while on the other hand, the market cap has clearly increased, and both sides feel they hold ironclad evidence.
Market cap is calculated by multiplying the latest price by the circulating supply; when the price changes, the value of existing assets is revalued. ETF net flow statistics, however, track subscriptions and redemptions—these two tables answer completely different questions.
Dates must also be aligned. Farside shows that on September 30, BTC and ETH spot ETFs indeed had simultaneous net outflows; on October 1, BTC had already returned to net inflows, while ETH was still experiencing outflows. On October 2, some product data in the table was missing, so the temporary totals cannot be taken as final results, and old titles should not be used to draw conclusions for the latest trading day.
My requirements for this kind of capital flow news are actually quite low: first, clearly state the statistical date. If the date of the money is not even matched, starting to explain institutions' long-term beliefs is a bit premature.
The cooling of capital flow deserves attention, but to judge whether the market trend can continue, we still need to see if new buying can continuously absorb selling. An increase in market cap can describe the market becoming more expensive but cannot alone prove that more cash has been invested. Without clarifying this, it is easy to mistake price increases for a financial safety cushion.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, with the healthcare sector contributing 17,000 of those. Putting these two figures together, the feeling is colder than just looking at the unemployment rate: other industries fluctuate, and the remaining new jobs are already few.
The BLS also mentioned that the financial sector lost about 7,000 jobs, and most major industries saw little change in employment. I don't really like directly translating such reports as "bad news for the economy, good news for crypto." A slowdown in hiring primarily means it's harder to find jobs and households are more cautious about income expectations. Policy expectations might push assets up for a while, but whether ordinary people dare to increase consumption is another matter.
Healthcare demand is relatively stable; it can provide jobs but cannot prove that all industries are expanding. If employment growth continues to concentrate in a few sectors, even if the total nonfarm number improves, we need to look more closely at the composition.
This report makes me cautious but not to the point of calling a recession. For the crypto market, the excitement from a smaller rate hike and concerns about economic weakness may coexist. Those eager to leverage on good news should first think clearly: are they betting on looser policy or genuinely stronger demand? These two judgments may lead to different future trends.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
🟢 Oli Daily Brief｜2026.10.04
Core coins continue a mild rebound, but the market has not yet entered a full Risk-on phase. In the past 24 hours, BTC, ETH, and SOL have all risen simultaneously, with SOL showing the strongest performance; however, at the same time, the total crypto market cap still declined, and overall trading volume noticeably contracted. Currently, the market looks more like: weekend low-volume oscillation + BTC capital dominance + relative strength in SOL + rotation in RWA/AI payment narratives. 📊 BTC remains near $85,000, SOL retests 120 As of 04:43 HKT: BTC: $84,854, 24h +0.74% ETH: $2,686.67, 24h +0.90% SOL: $119.90, 24h +1.82% Total crypto market cap: $2.903 trillion, 24h -1.83% BTC market dominance: 58.62% Fear and Greed Index: 67, Greed Previous: 72. Approximately $58.7 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours Compared to previous liquidations in the hundreds of millions, leverage liquidation pressure has clearly eased. But the most notable divergence today is: BTC, ETH, and SOL all rose, yet the total crypto market cap still fell. Meanwhile, overall market trading volume significantly decreased. This means the current rebound is mainly concentrated in core assets and a few hot coins, not a broad altcoin rally. Among the top 60 non-stablecoins by market cap: PUMP: +18.54% became the strongest performing asset
After the NEAR Intents attack, the team stated that they have identified the attacker, provided a 48-hour window to return the funds, and promised full compensation to affected users. The preliminary disclosed loss is about $3.8 million. The information is more complete than when the incident first occurred, but identifying the attacker, recovering the funds, and completing compensation are still at different stages.
Currently disclosed issues involve the interaction between Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and the Intents contract, which cannot be directly expanded to mean the entire NEAR underlying network was compromised. Pinpointing the problematic link helps assess the risk; however, for affected users, the most urgent concern is when their funds will be restored.
I support the team’s initial commitment to compensation, as this at least gives users a responsible party to hold accountable. But after the commitment, the scope of compensation and execution timeline need to be clarified. Whether the attacker cooperates should not be a reason for users to wait indefinitely.
This incident also made me reconsider the convenience of cross-chain products. The more the front end integrates operations smoothly, the easier it is for us to forget which systems a single transaction actually passes through. Users see one confirmation, but the backend may involve multiple interaction steps; security assessments cannot stop at familiar brands alone.
It is a bit early to debate whether the coin price has fallen too far. When services will resume, how the repair report explains the problem, and whether compensation has been received are all more effective at restoring trust than shouting at the attacker. Hopefully, the next update will provide clear execution results.
#NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10%
OpenAI plans to raise at least $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion, with discussions still in the early stages. Yesterday everyone was calculating the valuation; today I want to look at the sources of funding.
Reuters reported in September that SoftBank launched dollar and euro bond financing, planning to use part of the funds to invest in OpenAI. This does not mean that this round of financing will necessarily follow the same arrangement, but it reminds us that investors in AI companies may also need to raise money from the capital markets.
This adds another layer of cost to investment decisions. The company itself must prove that the business is worth investing in, while investors have to bear their own financing costs. If long-term interest rates remain high, even if AI is still promising, one must calculate how much interest will be paid during the waiting period for returns.
I am a bit cautious about this detail. Seeing large institutions willing to invest makes it easy to think that funds are sufficiently abundant; but subscription willingness, fund arrival, and investors' subsequent financing arrangements all have their own constraints. The brand is big and will not make borrowing costs disappear.
This also makes me more curious to know whether, after the new capital injection, the speed at which the business generates cash can keep up with expenditures. Capital can help a company get through the expansion period but cannot permanently replace operating returns.
I recognize the potential of AI products, but the larger the industry chain, the more necessary it is to include the sources of funds in the discussion. Simply looking at the amount of financing can easily lead to seeing only that investment is increasing, without seeing who is bearing the long-term costs of these investments.
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元
Atkins has included crypto asset fundraising rules, custody, and on-chain transactions in the regulatory agenda, and I support continuing to advance this. But this time I want to look at it from the investors' exit perspective: once fundraising channels become smoother, can the money invested be withdrawn under the conditions previously understood?
The fact that a token can be transferred between wallets does not alone indicate there is sufficient buying demand. Even if transfers are allowed by rules, investors may still fail to find willing buyers. Issuance channels and secondary market trading are two things that need to be developed separately.
I hope future rules and product descriptions will state these matters more plainly. Whether holders face transfer restrictions and whether early exits are arranged should be visible before subscription. Specific guidance has not yet been published, so we cannot pre-judge future provisions.
On-chain tools can indeed reduce certain issuance and record-keeping costs, but if purchasing becomes very easy while exit conditions require digging through a lot of information, it is not friendly to ordinary investors. The smoother the process, the easier it is to overlook long-term commitments in just a few clicks.
My expectation for on-chain fundraising is to make it easier for suitable projects to find funding and for contributors to clearly understand what they are accepting. Making the subscription page look good is not difficult; the real challenge is how to handle the product when it is not well received. I hope this part will not be hidden again in fine print that no one wants to read.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
Micron raised its guidance, and storage demand continues to strengthen. The market is again discussing how high AI can push memory demand. This time, I am more concerned about cash flow: the official financial report shows that operating cash flow for the fourth fiscal quarter was about $43.97 billion, and adjusted free cash flow was about $33.2 billion.
Revenue growth indicates customers are willing to buy, but cash flow lets us look one step further: how much money operating activities actually brought in, and how much remains after deducting net capital expenditures. For companies that need to continuously invest in equipment, this distinction is significant.
I am somewhat positive about Micron's performance this time. AI investments are finally showing concrete results in suppliers' cash recovery, making discussions more solid than just demand forecasts. However, operating cash flow can also be affected by working capital and collection arrangements, so one quarter cannot be directly extrapolated to every future quarter.
The old problem in the storage industry remains: when prices are good and profits are high, expansion is often most tempting; when new supply comes out, customer demand may change again. Fortunately, companies with ample cash have more options and can decide the pace of investment without relying on external financing for every project.
Next, I hope to see how this cash is allocated and how much return can still be retained after new capacity is put into operation. Record profits are certainly exciting, but what truly reassures me is that the company can still keep money on its books after expansion. This is more sustainable than simply raising next quarter's revenue forecast.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
The US-Iran situation keeps energy supply risks in focus, but today we shouldn't just fixate on negotiation headlines. On October 2, the G7 agreed to release about 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves. A new question arises: to what extent can these stocks alleviate the current supply pressure?
I think the reserve release deserves attention. It adds a batch of supply that can be deployed to the market, especially diesel, which is related to freight and production; the tension will be transmitted through transportation costs. Ordinary consumers may not watch Brent crude prices daily, but they bear the costs when shopping and traveling.
However, inventories can fill the gap but cannot do so indefinitely. The reserve release is mainly to buy time; whether subsequent transportation and normal supply can recover still needs to be seen. Taking the planned total release as a sign that the supply problem is already solved would be too optimistic.
This time, we also need to pay attention to the release speed and product structure. Crude oil and diesel cannot fully substitute each other; whether the urgently needed products arrive on time will affect the policy's effectiveness. After announcing the total volume, actual delivery has just begun.
I don't like to simplify such news into oil prices definitely rising or falling. Conflict risks and reserve releases can simultaneously affect prices, and their impact durations differ. What is more worth tracking now is whether emergency supplies have truly eased the tightness of refined oil. A slightly lower transportation bill is more tangible than the win-lose judgments in the news.
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
Bloomberg reports that Anthropic may start its IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9, aiming to begin trading before Thanksgiving. This is still a plan revealed by insiders, and the date has not been finalized, but if it happens, the valuation discussion of the AI company will have a more direct public market reference.
Previously, what we saw were mostly financing offers and transaction targets. After going public, buyers and sellers express their opinions with funds every day, and analysts can continuously compare the company's operational performance with its price. This process may not be gentle, but it is useful for the industry.
I look forward to its listing, but I am also a bit worried that everyone will treat it as the unified valuation standard for all AI assets. Anthropic's customer structure and computing power arrangements have their own characteristics. If it trades well, it does not automatically prove that another model company is worth the same multiple; if it falls, it cannot negate all AI demand together.
What is really interesting is that the public market will require the company to continuously answer questions. After increased investment last quarter, did customers pay more next quarter? When growth slows, is there room to adjust costs? These questions must be answered repeatedly, not just once during financing.
For those who like Claude, the product being easy to use is certainly worth supporting. But user experience and the price of buying stock must be judged separately. By then, I want to see the official disclosures and issuance terms more; I won’t let the listing calendar create anxiety about missing opportunities for myself.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市