$BTC $ETH $SOL Conclusion first We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30% Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back Let's all get rich together

$BTC Friends who haven't fully entered the position need not panic; there are clear guidelines for BTC's pullback entry points. Figure 1 shows the liquidity cycle of realized market capitalization, where we can see that when the 30-day liquidity cycle index rises from the long-term zero axis, it indicates leaving the bear market bottom area (red area in Figure 1). When it returns to the zero axis again, that marks the last entry point in the early bull market (black line in Figure 1), usually offering one or two opportunities. Figure 2 shows the profit-loss ratio of unrealized profits for short-term holders, where we can see that when the index starts to leave the long-term loss area, it indicates leaving the bear market bottom range (yellow box in Figure 2). When it returns to the loss area again, it also marks the last entry point in the early bull market (blue circle in Figure 2), usually with one or two opportunities. Interestingly, these two indicators align perfectly in timing, so when they trigger simultaneously again, that is the best position to add to BTC on a pullback

$BTC If spot buying can't keep up, high-level oscillation can easily turn into a long squeeze. But a short-term pullback does not mean the mid-term trend is over. Historically, after BTC rises more than 20% in a single week, the probability of continuing to rise after 4 weeks is about 85.7%, and about 71.4% after 12 weeks, but the median maximum drawdown in the following 12 weeks is also 14.5%. Based on $82,300, the corresponding level is approximately $70,300, of course, this number will change as the peak moves higher! The macro environment is temporarily favorable; the US stock rebound and the decline in US Treasury yields provide support for BTC; oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation data may suppress risk appetite again. Next, focus on three levels: $80,000: short-term strength/weakness boundary $78,000: top divergence confirmation level $70,000-$74,000: mid-term pullback zone Holding above $80,000 and breaking out with volume above $82,300-$84,000 will resolve the top divergence, with $85,000 as the next target. Conversely, if it falls below $78,000, watch $74,000-$76,000 first; if the pullback deepens, look near $70,000. Only if it falls back to the original range of $65,000-$66,000 will the mid-term reversal logic be invalidated. So above $80,000, I won’t chase longs, nor will I heavily buy at the top just because of divergence. Missing out means less profit at most; chasing the price aggressively to make up for missed opportunities is the easiest way to lose real money.

$BTC $ETH Yesterday's judgment: For Ethereum to regain strength, it must hold above 2453 After the price stood above this level last night, a strong rebound began, reaching a high of 2530, with the current price at 2509, moving in sync with BTC's strength Next, focus on the pullback level at 2474 If it reaches this level, consider buying on the pullback Pay attention to the non-farm payroll data tonight, beware of sudden spikes; if the data causes a drop to this point, it is a good opportunity to position

$BTC Bitcoin hits a new rebound high again, but why am I starting to turn bearish? On August 30, I expressed my view on Bitcoin: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term. After Bitcoin tested the 75,500 support level with low volume on September 2, it continued to rise as expected, breaking through the August 28 high of 81,480 to hit a new rebound high, reaching a peak of 82,300, further approaching the resistance level at 82,850. However, market signals are not as optimistic as the price suggests. From the RSI perspective: The daily RSI shows a bearish divergence again. This indicates that the upward momentum is weakening, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing the rally in the short term is declining. Finally, looking at the liquidation heatmap over the past two weeks: The liquidity for short position liquidations above 80,000 USD is running low, meaning the "fuel" for a continued short squeeze upward is diminishing. Meanwhile, the liquidity for long position liquidations below 76,000 USD is continuously accumulating. If the price starts to fall, the increasing liquidity of long position liquidations below could actually accelerate the decline. Overall, I believe the room for Bitcoin to continue rising is quite limited. Although there is still hope for a short-term rise to test the 82,850 resistance level, or even reach the lower edge of the 84,500-95,000 resistance zone, if we see another spike without volume and a quick pullback after a breakout, I will be more inclined to think the rebound is nearing its end. Therefore, I am prepared to gradually open short positions in the 82,500-84,500 range, with a stop loss at 87,000.

$BTC According to the "Cost Distribution Heatmap," during the period from 8/4 to 8/18, there was a sudden intensive turnover of short-term chips (Figure 1, red area), with the price range around $63K-$65K. In June to July, BTC stayed in the same position for a long time without a similar situation occurring. After this period of intensive turnover, there was a sudden, abnormal, large, and rapid surge with no pauses in between. It is obvious that before the surge, large funds had already accelerated the accumulation of chips in this range. This makes it hard not to suspect that it was a "premeditated" action. Interestingly, when we reviewed the data from January 2022, we saw the same situation (Figure 2). Rapid accumulation, rapid surge, no time to react! In other words, the red area is very likely the cost range where the main force accumulated chips. The "main force" here is probably not an individual or a single institution, but a group of "smart money" with resources, background, strength, and the ability to foresee the market in advance. I checked, and currently, wallets holding 100-1K and 1K-10K BTC have an average cost between $61K-$67K (Figure 3). This exactly matches the price range of intensive turnover we observed before the surge. By now, I think everyone already has the answer in mind. Yes! Since no time is given to react, it is very likely that there will be no reversal, preventing others from getting on board at the main force's cost price.

$BTC Major daily signal for BTC: SMA 50 is about to cross above SMA 200, the bull-bear turning point has arrived! Reviewing the last full cycle, during the bull market advance and bear-to-bull transitions, the daily chart saw 4 golden crosses where SMA 50 crossed above SMA 200. Each confirmed golden cross without exception was followed by a significant upward rally. Although moving averages have some lag, they carry substantial weight in defining long-term trends. After a deep correction, the daily chart is about to see the first golden cross since this adjustment — clearly signaling a key message: the toughest bear market phase is basically over, and the market is entering a transition from bear to bull. Bearish mindset must be completely changed! It should be noted that the recent rebound has already gained some ground; golden crosses often come with volatility and moving average pullbacks, so a direct one-sided short squeeze surge is highly unlikely. However, historical patterns show that consolidation and shakeouts are excellent opportunities for left-side dollar-cost averaging and adding positions in batches. Endure the volatility, and once the adjustment is in place, it’s a good chance to add positions and get on board, preparing for the next major primary uptrend!

$BTC Currently declining, based on the principle of symmetry, a complex structure's decline corresponds to a simple structure's rise. It won't take more than a year; around 200 days to complete the full cycle. In other words, by about February next year, this small bull market cycle will reach its target. The ridiculous thing is, those waiting for a big drop in October will indeed see a significant correction then, which will be a relatively large Wave 4 adjustment. But since the price will have risen, they won't dare to short. When the real drop happens, they'll regret and think their previous analysis was correct, rushing to chase short positions. Little do they know, a continued explosive Wave 5 surge will push prices near 120,000. Even more ridiculous is that half of this bull market structure has already been completed, yet many still think it's a bear market. Your time is running out; the biggest part of the move is only half done.

$BTC Summary: Following the previous analysis, after a rapid surge, consolidation occurs, with subsequent oscillation upward. Price Projection: After oscillating near 81000, it will gradually rise past 81325, with an extreme possibility of breaking through 83000. Previous Projection: Currently observing a halt in the decline and consolidation. Price is expected to oscillate around 77200. There is a high probability of testing the support zone between 76313-74500 downward. Actual Movement: After oscillating near 77200, a strong surge began in the evening, and the current price is oscillating near 81000. Subsequent Trend: Chip vacuum. Short-term bullish attack expected, historical bearish attacks have been filled; medium and long-term trend continues to oscillate. According to this indicator, short-term bullish attack, medium and long-term oscillation. Price Channel: Volume-weighted short-term average price 78120, upper limit 94690, lower limit 67640. Volume-weighted mid-term average price 74500, upper limit 80703, lower limit 65600. Volume-weighted long-term average price 80880, upper limit 93143, lower limit 72450. According to this indicator, the price has currently risen above the long-term average price; holding above 80880 indicates a trend turning strong, with a target of 93143.

$BTC Three scenarios and corresponding actions after Bitcoin's September close > Scenario 1: Close with a large bullish candle and a solid breakout above 83000 (Figure 1) This is a straightforward pattern, quickly confirming a bull market. In this case, do not entertain any bearish sentiment, and firmly hold onto your spot holdings. > Scenario 2: Close with a doji/spinning top/small candlestick, accompanied by delta divergence (Figure 2) This scenario indicates that a monthly-level correction will begin in October/November. Subjectively, the bull market is still underway, so prioritize filling your spot holdings during the correction. The correction zones based on order block analysis are: 73000-71000 70000-68000 67000-63000 (See Figure 3 for details) Among these, 67000-63000 is the bottom accumulation zone. Once the price quickly leaves this bottom area, the probability of returning is low. The 73000-71000 and 70000-68000 zones have higher probabilities, with 70000-68000 being a highly advantageous position, suitable for both offense and defense, and worth close attention. > Scenario 3: Close with a large bearish candle, returning to the 67000-57000 range This scenario is very unlikely. As I mentioned in previous posts, if this extreme case occurs, it might mean that the recent rally was a short squeeze, and the subsequent drop would be the final bottom. However, the bottom is unlikely to deviate far from the previous 57700 level. We can continue to accumulate the remaining spot holdings between 63000-53000 to average down the cost.