诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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Non-farm data released, $BTC sharply broke out of the consolidation range then fell back, with 24-hour liquidations exceeding 570 million at one point, cutting two groups of people at both ends.
The non-farm payrolls announced last night for September only added 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000. Moreover, July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000, with July's data even turning negative.
When the data came out, the brothers in the group chat exploded, cursing and complaining that the US was faking data. But we have to admit, whether it's fake or not, the situation looks very good:
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 5.18, oil prices are also declining, giving risk assets a breathing window. The rate hike expectation has even shifted to December.
Controlling market expectations to control inflation is one of the Fed's jobs. Data fabrication is one of the strategies.
So the divergence in capital flows has intensified: BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of $102.7 million on Thursday (IBIT alone nearly $200 million), ending outflows; $ETH ETFs have outflows for the third consecutive day, totaling over $110 million in three days—the narrative of BTC strong and ETH weak is deepening.
The SEC made two moves: a 760-page custody rule allowing institutions to self-custody crypto assets, and a joint statement with the CFTC clarifying that spot digital commodities can be traded on registered exchanges. Regulatory infrastructure is being added.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, plus the National Day holiday, so the recovery rally is likely to be on low volume; don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
+21.99%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 09:23
Today's non-farm payroll data looks like a fake, far below expectations.
But whether it's fake or not doesn't matter; what matters is that the US wants to use this signal to lower everyone's expectations of a rate hike. The difference is simply: fake means a subjective decision not to raise rates; not fake means an objective decision not to raise rates.
So interpreting this as no rate hike, which is positive for $BTC, is perfectly reasonable
+25.05%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 22:04
$XRP is indeed gathering strength. Its gains in the third quarter are the highest in four years, about 48%. Even $ETH didn't perform as well year-over-year. This week is just a breather caused by profit-taking.
Because the total holdings of the US spot XRP ETF have reached 1.16 billion tokens, with net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks. The support effect of this buying is very obvious.
Moreover, on-chain whales are also replenishing, with on-chain whales increasing their holdings by 470 million tokens last month.
Just waiting for the volume to break above 1.6 someday. After five days of sideways movement, the direction won't be far off. Hold your chips and wait for the wind to come.
+36.93%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 21:40
$HYPE is still strong, with a secret large order of $330 million quietly settled off-exchange, indicating that big institutions are secretly accumulating HYPE.
The settlement date is the 7th, with a total of 3.75 million tokens, not going through the public market, which means the buyer wants the chips, not to dump them.
Also, the regulatory cloud has partly cleared: the Congressional inquiry into prediction markets did not target the HYPE entity itself, and Lion Group has instead shifted its position to buying HYPE. This shows institutions are voting with their feet.
+35.72%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 19:02
$BTC has risen so much, why did $SOL just surge briefly and then fall back? Clearly, its fundamentals are also very strong!
1. SOL's monthly ledger is solid: September's ecosystem revenue was about $180 million, and the SOL-focused ETF attracted $272 million throughout September, setting a quarterly record.
Both fundamentals and capital are adding up, yet the price has been stuck around 120 for half a month, and just after breaking through for an hour, it feels like it's about to fall back.
This is because the capital hasn't rotated in yet, and there's a liquidation cluster right below.
There are a lot of longs stacked at 116; if it pulls up slightly, many will take profits, so small funds simply can't push it up.
But large funds definitely prioritize flowing into BTC and $ETH first; it's not yet time for SOL inflows, so SOL's price is hovering around 120 now.
No need to worry, once BTC and ETH stagnate, it will be SOL's time to perform.
+66.94%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 12:15
The old $ETH whales are still cashing out, and this rebound's height is being suppressed by them:
Since last week, many ETH whales have been selling off, and in the past two days, it has intensified, with even ICO whales doing clearance-style sell-offs.
According to Lookonchain on-chain data, in just two days, they sold 19,000 coins, equivalent to about $47 million.
Fortunately, contracts are taking over: on 10/1, a single transfer of 200,000 coins, about $850 million worth of ETH, was moved into Deribit. Not sure if it's hedging or genuine optimism.
In a volatile market, hold spot assets and avoid high leverage.
+26.55%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 11:50
$BTC Don't chase the highs. After nine consecutive ETF inflows, yesterday was the first time money was pulled out. Also, the rate hike expectations have shifted to December, and the current sentiment is somewhat optimistic, so there will likely be fluctuations. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
1. The most solid buyers have taken a breather; the infrastructure buying that fueled nine consecutive inflows has stopped, and before the weekend, no one is willing to take over. Naturally, no one is lifting the sideways market that has lasted six days.
2. CME currently shows a 75.1% chance of no rate change in October, with the hike pushed directly to December, effectively giving risk assets a one-month reprieve.
3. The liquidation data is unusually clean: less than $7 million cleared across the entire market in 24 hours, leverage was unwound before the non-farm payrolls. Tonight at 20:30 is the September non-farm payrolls; strong data will hit the market, weak data will lift it — the direction hinges on this one event.
Don't chase highs before tonight's non-farm payrolls; keep positions below 50% before the data is released.
+23.15%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 11:43
Tonight is the September non-farm payroll night, but the market has already changed the script in advance. The bet is no longer on whether there will be a rate hike in October, but on "whether it can hold until December." This change is very important.
1. Interest rate script changes: The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.344% intraday yesterday, but fortunately pulled back — the market was startled and then repriced.
Currently, the probability of no change in October is 75.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is 61.3%. To translate: the rate hike has been moved from October to December.
2. Funding landscape shifts: The nine consecutive inflows into the $BTC spot ETF have ended, with a net outflow of $148.7 million on 9/30 alone. The $ETH ETF saw an outflow of $59.6 million on the same day. Tonight’s September non-farm payroll is a major test; if the data is strong, ETFs will continue to withdraw.
3. US stocks and xStocks: Yesterday, the three major US stock indices were basically flat, with storage stocks linked in chorus. In the xStocks pool, $MSTR led with a strong bullish candle of +4.8%, the strongest in the market; SNDK rose 2.8%, CRCL rose slightly but had its rating downgraded.
4. Pool structure: ZEC’s 1400 support line was broken, momentum for PONS and PUMP is fading, LSK continues to decline steadily; on the other side, OKB is suppressing volatility and playing dead, while HYPE has a large off-exchange order of $330 million entering.
Overall assessment: Narrow consolidation before the non-farm payroll, xStocks strong, altcoins weak, don’t get overconfident with positions, wait for the data to land.
+22.40%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 10:26