
陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称:陈桂林
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$BTC Killa This post reminded me that people often say "this time is different," but every time it's actually the same;
However, this time it really is different, because the rhythm of BTC in this bear market has indeed changed. Whether the drop from 126 to 57 represents the entire bear market or just the first part of it, it has indeed only fallen by 53%, so we really need to consider the issue of volatility.
A short-term judgment:
1. This has been said many times recently: BTC is currently in the final phase of the first upward wave since 57, which is the 5th wave;
2. After the 5th wave, a mild correction is expected, with the adjustment target likely being the bottom of the 4th wave.

We only dropped 53% this bear cycle.
So you see those 25-30% corrections we saw in previous bull cycles?
They are not happening. Volatility compression. Study. That, my friends, is a thing of the past.
What makes me laugh is seeing people compare 2014 or 2018 to now. $BTC was a few billion dollar asset back then, today it sits at roughly a 1.5T market cap.
You cannot compare an asset that has dynamically shifted to this extent. It’s like comparing a small cap stock to a global mega cap and expecting identical behavior. Retardio if you ask me.
Want actual valuable advice?
You are not getting anything more than a 15% drop to enter your longs all the way up to 126K.
Dynamics change, people unfortunately don't.
You helped me get out of a loss, and I still have to be grateful, right?



Is watching important? Yes, but not that important, because it's just one part of the entire trading process.
Look at this chart, it was said very early, but to be honest.
I didn't hold any of these altcoins, not to mention before this round started I was still trying to go long on $TAO.
In this round, besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, I actually made the most profit on doge. Although the pull was small, it was stable, and stability means finding the right position to take a large position.
The highest multiplier this round was buying at 0.4 and selling at 1.1 on Niulai, nearly tripling, but at most I only dared to buy 15,000U, so the total profit was just over 20,000U; similarly, I don't need more than 200,000U to open a single Ethereum position, 10% is also 20,000U profit, but that requires much more courage, even far from enough courage.
A correct trade is not about backtesting after seeing the price rise: what would have happened if I had gone long then;
but about checking if the entry timing was right at that moment? If not, is there enough faith to hold on? If you truly believed but the faith was in garbage, what would happen?
Money is limited, faith is limited, opportunities are unlimited;
The bull market is too FOMO, everyone shouts too much, I think what’s most needed is calmness;
So, all shout trades without position should be treated as 10U;
For example: look, Guilin shouted a trade that tripled and earned 20U, isn’t that less anxious?
Is watching important? Yes, but not that important, because it's just one part of the entire trading process.
Look at this chart, it was said very early, but to be honest.
I didn't hold any of these altcoins, not to mention before this round started I was still trying to go long on $TAO.
In this round, besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, I actually made the most profit on doge. Although the pull was small, it was stable, and stability means finding the right position to take a large position.
The highest multiplier this round was buying at 0.4 and selling at 1.1 on Niulai, nearly tripling, but at most I only dared to buy 15,000U, so the total profit was just over 20,000U; similarly, I don't need more than 200,000U to open a single Ethereum position, 10% is also 20,000U profit, but that requires much more courage, even far from enough courage.
A correct trade is not about backtesting after seeing the price rise: what would have happened if I had gone long then;
but about checking if the entry timing was right at that moment? If not, is there enough faith to hold on? If you truly believed but the faith was in garbage, what would happen?
Money is limited, faith is limited, opportunities are unlimited;
The bull market is too FOMO, everyone shouts too much, I think what’s most needed is calmness;
So, all shout trades without position should be treated as 10U;
For example: look, Guilin shouted a trade that tripled and earned 20U, isn’t that less anxious?


Gained another life lesson.
Don't eat seafood at roadside stalls in tourist spots; if you must eat crab, mark it and have it steamed.
Last night I craved crab, so I found a roadside stall and ordered spicy stir-fried crab;
When picking, the crab was big and round; when eating, I seriously suspected the vendor swapped the crab I picked!
But without evidence, I could only grumble behind the scenes and painfully finish it 😏
Although at checkout I forcibly converted the exchange rate to USD to console myself that it was only a few hundred USD, I was still genuinely upset for five minutes 😭
I think the crypto space is in hard mode because I mainly trade contracts of major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP;
Some friends think the crypto space is currently in giveaway mode, probably because they hold tokens like Near and Uni, which is not contradictory.
Given my current trading system and skill level, swimming around in altcoins carries a higher risk of drowning than making money; so I choose a conservative approach.
Finally, my view that Bitcoin is at the end of the first major upward phase of the overall rally remains unchanged.




After yesterday's intense brain battle, the conclusion reached can't really be said to just resemble the viewpoint of that crazy guy's post—it can be said to be exactly the same.
1. Yesterday I tried shorting for a while, but then I thought, I'm already pretty bad at this, making some profit on longs is good enough, no need to try to play both sides, so I closed the position;
I didn't look carefully yesterday, but today I glanced at the screenshots, and these numbers sound quite catchy: 2678, 2666, 321;
2. Since I don't really want to short, or rather, don't want to short for now, or can't do it well, the only thing I can do is optimize my position size, because I have ideas and thoughts, and not doing anything feels off;
3. Yesterday oil was like that, the US dollar index was like that, the 10-year bond was like that, Bitcoin was still like that, and some altcoins even more so, which puzzled me a lot, forcing me to ask the divine question! (See image 2)
Then I thought of a saying: topping out is a process. If the big brother can't push higher, and the little brother hasn't finished rotating, then it's reasonable for the big brother to tough it out to protect the little brother, after all: "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver";
4. What needs reflection is that I've been a bit too lucky recently, which led to: ① worse ability to hold positions, wanting to make money as soon as I enter, greedy for instant profits, unhappy with any pullback; ② feeling floaty—I guess this floatiness means I have to lose all the profits made from this second wave of tactical positions before I can come back down to earth;
5. At this market position, whatever happens makes sense. If the US and Iran bring some good news, the market will pump online and trigger short stops. If US-Iran relations stay calm, the market will just move sideways painfully. If bad news comes, there might be a bloodbath;
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech (semiconductors) might choose to digest sideways if no bad news comes from US-Iran or elsewhere, but if Bitcoin moves sideways, that's not good for altcoins. After all, Guilin said time doesn't favor altcoins; once rotation finishes, we just have to deal with it as before;
6. Guilin announces again: after a brief few days of rally, the market might enter a difficult mode again. This difficult mode interval is too close to the previous one, which is not a good sign (indicating the bulls...);
7. The first wave of bull protection, Guilin defended from 60,000 to nearly 90,000, Bitcoin rose nearly 50%, truly the top demon king of the crypto world. In the future, I need to focus more on the community, unless I can't help myself and rant again. For private community, please see the pinned post on my profile.
Happy Mid-Autumn Festival~
I've been watching this stock for over a month, and in crypto terms, it feels like strong control of the supply;
98% of the chips held, 2% circulating, you get it?
$LITE

There is light at the core; under such heavy external pressure, being able to remain so resilient makes it feel like any positive news would easily break through the resistance. Observing these few tokens, they truly show strong control at a glance;
The crypto market is currently most likely at the tail end of the first phase, but the light at the core may just be at the beginning stage;
Capital flows like water…







