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Namsir
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SPCX is now truly worth watching, not just Starship, but who is continuously funding Starship.
Starlink is responsible for generating cash flow, Starship is responsible for burning money, and AI is another project that devours capital massively. SpaceX's future story is huge, but its valuation is already high; the higher it goes, the more the market demands speed in delivering results.
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$SPCX is now truly worth watching, not just Starship, but who is continuously funding Starship.
Starlink is responsible for generating cash flow, Starship is responsible for burning money, and AI is another project that devours capital massively. SpaceX's future story is huge, but its valuation is already high; the higher it goes, the more the market demands speed in delivering results.
I will focus on several valuation pullback trigger conditions:
Starship's consecutive tests fall short of expectations, cutting space business valuation; AI orders and revenue fall below expectations, cutting AI valuation; Starlink's user growth and profit margins slow significantly, cutting cash flow logic; capital expenditures continue to surge but revenue doesn't keep up, cutting profit expectations.
There is also an easily overlooked variable: U.S. Treasury yields.
If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, high-valuation growth assets overall will come under pressure. For a company like SPCX, which relies heavily on long-term stories, valuation compression will be even more pronounced.
So my judgment on SPCX is simple:
The bigger the story, the more you can't just look at the story.
Starlink must keep generating cash flow, AI must deliver revenue, and Starship must deliver on technical progress.
If any one of these links clearly fails, the $2 trillion valuation could be recalculated.
The biggest risk is not that the company is failing, but that the market has already priced in too much of the future in advance.
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