90% chance of rate hikes. You read that right.
The last time the Fed raised interest rates was in July 2023. It hasn't taken action for over three years. And next week, it's highly likely to break the rules.
But what really makes it worth spending three minutes watching isn't whether interest rates will be raised.
Here are the five things you need.
1/ The starting point of this rate hike is completely different from 2022
In the 2022 cycle, interest rates started at zero and rose all the way to 5.25%–5.50%.
What about this time? The current interest rate range is 3.50%–3.75%. Continuing to increase from the high.
What does that mean? The imaginative space for terminal interest rates has been fully opened. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is already close to 4.4%, higher than the current effective federal funds rate—the bond market is more honest than the stock market, already pricing in a tighter environment.
Stop using the 2022 script to predict 2026.
2/ Wall Street is collectively tearing up reports
When CPI data came out, institutions ran faster than retail investors.
UBS: Changed from "no change throughout the year" to add one month each in September + December.
Goldman Sachs: Changed from "holding stead" to a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
TD Securities is the most aggressive: September, October, and January next year—three times in total.
Half a year ago, the same group was still calling for rate cuts. Their predictions are not opinions, but ratifications.
3/ BTC and Gold Rising Simultaneously—Do You Think the Market Has Gone Crazy?
After the CPI data was released, BTC rebounded to around $78,600. Gold also rose against the trend.
Rate hike expectations have risen to 90%, and risk assets have risen instead of falling—this is not a contradiction; it is the certainty that prices have already digested 90%.
What the market is really trading is what Walsh will say after the rate hike.
A 25bp rate hike is not news. How much should the dot plot be revised upward?
4/48 hours liquidated $747 million—this isn't a market rally, it's a clean-up move
In the past 24 hours, about $747 million was liquidated across the network. Short positions lost 425 million, and long positions lost 307 million.
Playing both sides. The market is using leveraged positions for "clearance sales."
The key data is here: ETFs saw $3.8 billion in inflows over three weeks, but saw $147 million in consecutive outflows on September 8–9.
Institutions reduce positions before rate hikes and cover them after the data is realized. This is a tactic, not a trend. The money hasn't left; it's just waiting for a more comfortable entry point.
5/ On September 16, you only need to focus on three things
Leverage—The lesson of over $700 million in liquidations in 48 hours is deep enough; don't overdo it before the FOMC.
Bitmap — The June dot plot has already raised the median interest rate for the end of 2026 from 3.4% to 3.8%. Will it be revised up again this time? By how much? This is ten times more important than whether to raise rates.
Walsh's wording—the "silentest Fed chairman"—has only given one public speech in his 100 days in office. He said Jackson Hole, "If inflation is not targeted, there is still work to be done." If he changes his stance this time, the entire narrative will have to be rewritten.
The 90% probability of rate hikes is already priced in. If you're still struggling over whether to raise the rate, you're already a whole street behind.
Those who truly make money are betting on what Wash's next sentence will be.
$BTC$ETH$SOL #美国CPI环比加速, expectations for rate hikes are heating up
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