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PONS at $0.61, do you dare catch the falling knife? First, look at the surface: good news piled up like a mountain, but the price fell like a dog. On September 2, Binance Wallet Alpha launched, Uniswap Labs bought PONS and declared "long-term support," on September 3 the platform's daily fees surged to $5.95 million, ranking in the top four protocols network-wide. On September 5, the price hit an ATH of 0.97, OKX launched 20x perpetual contracts, and leveraged traders flooded in. Then what? It dropped from 0.97 all the way down to 0.61, a 37% decline in five days. First thing: 30% burn is real, but burning can't stop leveraged liquidations. On September 8, the official confirmed that 30% of total supply was burned, about 300 million PONS tokens destroyed. This is a strong narrative—fee buyback burn, deflationary flywheel. Sounds great? But look at the chart—after the announcement, the price kept dropping, a typical sell the news. The burn is real, but it can't stop leveraged liquidations. Second thing: the flywheel is still spinning, but the moat is thinner than you think. PONS is the largest launchpad platform token on Robinhood Chain, with a model like Pump.fun—one-click token launch, locked pool trading, creators share fees. 80% of protocol revenue is used for TWAP buyback and burn of PONS. But you must see three layers of risk: Poor revenue quality: mostly meme launches and short-lived token trading fees, not stable DeFi income. The moat is not in their own hands: pools are on Uniswap, chain is Robinhood. Big test on September 29: Robinhood Wallet's Swap Gas subsidy expires on September 29. During subsidy, users trade tokens at almost zero cost; after expiration, launch volume and fees will likely drop. Third thing: the technicals have reached a point where a decision must be made. From 0.97 down to 0.61, the first major pullback. The previous high support at 0.80-0.81 has been broken and turned into resistance. 0.67-0.70 is the first retracement zone, 0.61-0.62 is the 24h low, the first short-term demand. If 0.61 closes with a long lower shadow and volume shrinks to stop the fall, it qualifies for a rebound. If the 4H/daily close breaks below 0.58 and then 0.54, the pullback will escalate from a "healthy correction" to "main uptrend ended, seeking deeper demand around 0.40." Resistance above: 0.67-0.70 → 0.80-0.81 → 0.88-0.92 Support below: 0.61-0.62 → 0.54 (4H mid-term moving average) → 0.44 → 0.39 Bull vs. bear, you decide On one side: 30% supply burned, buyback flywheel is real Platform market share over 75%, daily fees earn millions First wave of leverage has already exploded, oversold rebound probability rises Institutions like Uniswap, Binance Alpha backing it On the other side: Heavy profit-taking after parabolic rise, Cumberland reducing positions at 0.80 Gas subsidy expires September 29, income may be halved Macroeconomic headwinds: September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC Market cap of 440 million still includes large "on-chain casino perpetual prosperity" premium Trading strategy Short-term players: Scale in long between 0.58-0.62, stop loss at 0.54, first target 0.68-0.70 to reduce half, second target 0.78-0.81. Short on rebound: Wait for rebound to 0.68-0.72, if a long upper shadow or 1H bearish divergence appears, short lightly, stop loss 0.81, targets 0.61 → 0.54. Mid-term view: If after September 29 subsidy expiration, daily protocol income can still maintain million-dollar scale, 0.61 is a "value negotiation" zone. If daily fees halve, market cap will be cut further. If 1H close breaks below 0.58 and cannot quickly recover, abandon bottom fishing. Next demand zones at 0.52-0.54, if not, then 0.44. Launchpad tokens often suffer another halving of sentiment after breaking support, don't bet on a V-shaped reversal. PONS now is like Jito at the end of 2023— 99% thought "it crashed right after launch, it's over," but after bottom volume washout, it never looked back. But this time is different: before September 29, the flywheel is still spinning; after September 29, the real test begins. 0.61 can be watched, but don't rush in. If it breaks 0.54, admit the mistake, save bullets for a lower structure, not to be the bag holder for the first long bearish candle after the parabola. At 0.61, do you dare catch it? $BTC $ETH $PONS