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ZEC at $1215, do you still dare to chase? First, look at the surface: it’s gone crazy up, and now people are scared of the rise. ZEC started around 800 at the end of August, broke through 1000 on September 6, and surged directly to 1298 on September 9, doubling in two weeks. Now at 1215, daily RSI is 75-78, clearly overbought. In the group chat, there are two types of people: those who regret missing the ride and those who chased at 1300 and are now playing dead. First thing: ETF is a positive, but not a perpetual motion machine. Grayscale ZCSH spot ETF launched on August 25, with AUM already exceeding $500 million. Institutional channels have opened, the privacy sector overall is outperforming BTC, and AI monitoring plus regulatory narratives have pushed ZEC to the forefront. The positive news is already partially priced in. Even the founder of F2Pool is criticizing "narrative-driven, fundamentals lagging behind." On September 14, there is also the NU7 governance vote, so short-term sentiment could turn at any time. Second thing: Shorts have been liquidated by billions, but leverage is a double-edged sword. Futures open interest once surged to $2-3 billion, shorts were continuously squeezed, large-scale liquidations occurred. Whales are also buying. Shorts don’t die, bulls don’t stop; once shorts are dead, bulls are next. Below 1200-1225, there is dense bull liquidation; above 1290-1305, there is also heavy short liquidation. Third thing: Fundamentals are improving, but the price is running too fast. The Ironwood upgrade fixed a critical vulnerability in the Orchard pool, reducing supply integrity risk. Shielded supply ratio rose to 25-30%, circulating supply 16.92 million / 21 million total, halving in 2028. The long-term logic is "privacy as a necessity in the AI era + BTC-like monetary policy." But in the short term? On-chain activity relative to market cap is still not high. Many purchases are not for payment needs but for capital speculation. Fourth thing: The macro window is here, don’t play hero before the data. August PPI, September 11 CPI, September 15-16 FOMC, with about 60% chance of a 25bp rate hike. BTC is oscillating around 78,000. Hawkish → ZEC as a high-beta altcoin will have sharper pullbacks than BTC. Dovish → privacy narrative continues to carry a premium. Support: 1200 (psychological level) → 1160-1170 → 1100-1090 Resistance: 1250-1260 → 1290-1300 → 1430 Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide On one side: ETF AUM over $500 million, institutional channels open Privacy sector strengthening, short squeezes, whales buying Halving in 2028, favorable supply logic On the other side: RSI 75-78, obvious overbought OI $2-3 billion, crowded leverage Positive news partially priced in, F2Pool founder criticizing CPI/FOMC window, BTC weakness drags down altcoins Trading strategy Short term: Sell high and buy low in the 1200-1260 range. If rebound meets resistance at 1250-1260 and 4H turns weak, try light short positions with stop loss above 1290, target 1210-1200. If it pulls back to 1200-1210 and stabilizes (long lower shadow or volume increase), try light long positions with stop loss below 1180, target 1250-1290. Mid term: Better buy points at 1100-1160, or add after confirming 1200 support is effective. If it holds above 1300, look at 1430-1500. If daily closes below 1160 with volume, reduce positions. Long term: Core holdings can be kept, but take profits on high positions. Wait for better entry points. ZEC now is like a meme coin that doubled right after listing— It makes you doubt life when it rises, and doubt yourself when it falls. If 1200 doesn’t hold, the story turns into an accident; if 1200 holds, 1298 is just a mid-point. You didn’t dare to buy at 800, said 1000 was too high, rushed in at 1300, now at 1215 asking what to do. You’re not trading ZEC, you’re trading your own greed. At 1215, do you dare to chase? $BTC $ETH $ZEC