TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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Correcting a very serious mistake, it seems that the last few times the next FOMC meeting time was written incorrectly. The accurate announcement time for the interest rate decision is 2 AM Beijing time on October 29.
Now the probability of no rate hike in October has been suppressed to the limit. Looking at the calendar, I blindly guess that the CPI data on October 14 will push this probability up, after all, oil prices were very high in September, so there is no reason for the CPI to cool down
TraderS | 缺德道人
Just after the major non-farm payrolls were announced, the CME rate hike probability website crashed again. Now it finally refreshed, showing the October rate hike probability has indeed dropped to the teens, closing at 16.1%.
This probability basically defines the minimum probability range for no rate hike in October, but as always, maintaining a no rate hike probability for over 20 days from now is still too long. The Federal Reserve will not tolerate such market consensus lasting too long.
So, the fastest scenario is that some information will come out next week to push the October rate hike probability back up, and then it will be pushed down again closer to the 10.26 FOMC meeting.
Just after the major non-farm payrolls were announced, the CME rate hike probability website crashed again. Now it finally refreshed, showing the October rate hike probability has indeed dropped to the teens, closing at 16.1%.
This probability basically defines the minimum probability range for no rate hike in October, but as always, maintaining a no rate hike probability for over 20 days from now is still too long. The Federal Reserve will not tolerate such market consensus lasting too long.
So, the fastest scenario is that some information will come out next week to push the October rate hike probability back up, and then it will be pushed down again closer to the 10.26 FOMC meeting.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Currently, from the market perspective, both gold and Bitcoin have returned to the small highs caused by the positive PCE data on Wednesday night. If the US stock market cannot effectively break through after opening later, there might be some changes over the weekend closure until next week. The duration of this positive effect is somewhat short.
Currently, from the market perspective, both gold and Bitcoin have returned to the small highs caused by the positive PCE data on Wednesday night. If the US stock market cannot effectively break through after opening later, there might be some changes over the weekend closure until next week. The duration of this positive effect is somewhat short.
Damn, still crossing arms, historical data indeed revised downward, the show goes on, first enjoy a week of bubble, when the risk market has no room to rise, there will definitely be some other news to push up the interest rate expectations
TraderS | 缺德道人
Damn, I got it again, the nonfarm payroll data was a big surprise, good news for risk markets #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Damn, I got it again, the nonfarm payroll data was a big surprise, good news for risk markets #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
TraderS | 缺德道人
From a pure data perspective, the market currently expects the September unemployment rate and the large nonfarm payroll employment to be 4.1% and 90,000 respectively. Generally speaking, an unemployment rate above 4.1% and employment below 90,000 would reduce the probability of a rate hike, which is favorable for risk markets.
If today's data unexpectedly lowers the market's expectation of two more rate hikes, that would be the best outcome. This unexpected drop might occur alongside a revision downward of historical data.
Looking at gold prices alone, the market's trading on rate hike expectations seems a bit excessive, so personally, I think releasing dovish data tonight to further correct market bias would be a better choice.
After all, there is still plenty of time before the next FOMC meeting, so there is no need to scare the market for a long time. Such tension is prone to snapping. It's better to enjoy a few good days to ease nerves and then start the "wolf is coming" talk two weeks before the meeting, which is still plenty of time. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
From a pure data perspective, the market currently expects the September unemployment rate and the large nonfarm payroll employment to be 4.1% and 90,000 respectively. Generally speaking, an unemployment rate above 4.1% and employment below 90,000 would reduce the probability of a rate hike, which is favorable for risk markets.
If today's data unexpectedly lowers the market's expectation of two more rate hikes, that would be the best outcome. This unexpected drop might occur alongside a revision downward of historical data.
Looking at gold prices alone, the market's trading on rate hike expectations seems a bit excessive, so personally, I think releasing dovish data tonight to further correct market bias would be a better choice.
After all, there is still plenty of time before the next FOMC meeting, so there is no need to scare the market for a long time. Such tension is prone to snapping. It's better to enjoy a few good days to ease nerves and then start the "wolf is coming" talk two weeks before the meeting, which is still plenty of time. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
There is just over an hour left before the big non-farm payroll data is released. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 23.8%. To be honest, this number is quite low. Judging solely by the probability figure, I would be a bit worried about a rebound after the non-farm payroll release hitting bottom.
However, if the probability can be pushed down further into the teens and then the market rallies for a week before another event triggers a rebound, that might be a better scenario.
From the concentrated speeches by Federal Reserve officials today, the overall consensus within the Fed still seems to be the same as before: there may be at least two more rate hikes in the future, but not in October. The next rate hike is more likely to be in December. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $XAUT $BTC
Alright, currently the probability of an interest rate hike in October has been pushed down to 37.1%. It looks like on Friday when the big non-farm payrolls come out, it will be pushed down a bit more.
I estimate the pace will probably stay around 30% for a week or two, then some other event/speech/data will come out to pull it back up. Otherwise, if the consensus is too high before the FOMC, the Fed will have no face to save.
Then before the meeting on 10.26, they might push it down again or keep it around a 50-50 split near 50% to scare the market, and this month will just pass by.
Awesome, awesome, changing the caliber really works
PCE annual rate directly below the expected and previous value of 3.3%, announced value 3%
Core monthly rate 0.2% also below the expected 0.3%
US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, all shot up like a needle
666# October rate hike expectations fall back, tonight's PCE is the key
TraderS | 缺德道人
Tonight, there will be the ADP employment report and PCE data released. I was out today, so I didn't have time to write an analysis in advance. However, since the big nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday, this less important ADP report can be ignored for now.
Now, regarding the PCE data, both PCE and CPI are the most important components of inflation data and must be taken seriously. Especially tonight, as it is the first macroeconomic data release after the rate hike and includes a revision in the data calculation method, both are major points to watch.
According to the consistently accurate Cleveland Fed model updated on September 29: the overall PCE for August is estimated at 0.34% month-over-month, and the core at 0.27%.
The current market consensus expectations are: headline monthly rate at 0.4%, annual rate at 3.8%; core monthly rate at 0.3%, annual rate at 3.4%.
Based on previously high oil prices, the August PCE data should be on the hotter side, but since the calculation method has been revised, the purpose is naturally to try to lower the data. Coupled with the intentionally or unintentionally but very timely suppressed oil prices starting the day before yesterday, it seems more like an effort to convince the market that inflation data is indeed moving in an improving direction.
Additionally, historical data will be revised today. If the historical data is suddenly revised downward, the market might take the opportunity to speculate briefly before gradually accepting the revised results and returning to stability.
In summary, there will be no consecutive rate hikes in October, but since the next FOMC meeting is still a month away, rate hike expectations will inevitably be speculated back and forth. Risk management should be well prepared on both ends. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
Tonight, there will be the ADP employment report and PCE data released. I was out today, so I didn't have time to write an analysis in advance. However, since the big nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday, this less important ADP report can be ignored for now.
Now, regarding the PCE data, both PCE and CPI are the most important components of inflation data and must be taken seriously. Especially tonight, as it is the first macroeconomic data release after the rate hike and includes a revision in the data calculation method, both are major points to watch.
According to the consistently accurate Cleveland Fed model updated on September 29: the overall PCE for August is estimated at 0.34% month-over-month, and the core at 0.27%.
The current market consensus expectations are: headline monthly rate at 0.4%, annual rate at 3.8%; core monthly rate at 0.3%, annual rate at 3.4%.
Based on previously high oil prices, the August PCE data should be on the hotter side, but since the calculation method has been revised, the purpose is naturally to try to lower the data. Coupled with the intentionally or unintentionally but very timely suppressed oil prices starting the day before yesterday, it seems more like an effort to convince the market that inflation data is indeed moving in an improving direction.
Additionally, historical data will be revised today. If the historical data is suddenly revised downward, the market might take the opportunity to speculate briefly before gradually accepting the revised results and returning to stability.
In summary, there will be no consecutive rate hikes in October, but since the next FOMC meeting is still a month away, rate hike expectations will inevitably be speculated back and forth. Risk management should be well prepared on both ends. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
