看不懂的sol哥
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The main theme for the US stock market this week is very clear:
It's not earnings week,
but rather "inflation data + Apple event + AI software validation."
The US stock market is closed on September 7th for Labor Day, so the real volatility starts in the latter half of the week.
I will focus on three key windows:
1️⃣ First, September 10th PPI.
This is upstream prices, mainly to see if corporate cost pressures continue to transmit.
2️⃣ Second, September 11th CPI.
This is the most critical data of the week.
If inflation remains sticky, US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations will continue to weigh on tech stocks;
if inflation cools down, the market will have reason to re-trade the "soft landing."
3️⃣ Third, Apple event + Oracle and Adobe earnings.
For Apple, the focus is on whether the iPhone 18 Pro, foldable screens, and edge AI are truly materializing;
for Oracle and Adobe, the question is whether AI has actually turned into real revenue, not just a story.
So this week is not simply about ups and downs.
It's more like three exams:
Inflation tests the Fed,
Apple tests consumer electronics,
AI software earnings test commercialization.
My own observation order is:
First look at PPI,
then CPI,
and finally whether tech stocks can hold the AI main theme.
If CPI exceeds expectations, short-term risk assets will likely suffer;
if CPI is moderate, Apple and AI software stocks have a chance to regain market sentiment.
What really determines the rhythm of the US stock market this week is not any single company, but whether inflation can ease the pressure on tech stocks.
After GPT-6 Astra was released, my biggest impression is:
AI has taken another step forward, but what really changes is not chatting.
It's the way we work.
In the past, people used AI mostly for Q&A:
Help me explain this.
Help me write a paragraph.
Help me summarize.
But the focus of models like GPT-6 Astra has clearly shifted to "end-to-end task completion."
It can handle longer contexts, perform complex reasoning, write code, research information, conduct studies, and even generate documents, spreadsheets, PPTs, and coordinate with tools to complete multi-step tasks.
What does this mean?
AI is no longer just a smart search box,
but is becoming a true work partner.
For individuals, the future gap may not be "whether you can use AI," but:
Whether you can break down tasks;
Whether you can make requests;
Whether you can judge results;
Whether you can integrate AI into your workflow.
It's the same for companies.
In the past, competition was about manpower, processes, and experience.
Next, it will be about who can make AI part of their production system.
Content creation, programming development, data analysis, business research, office automation, education, and learning will be the first scenarios to be reshaped.
But I think the most important point is:
The stronger AI becomes, the more ordinary people cannot just "play with tools."
You need to start training three abilities:
Explain complex problems clearly;
Break big goals into small tasks;
Judge whether the results AI provides are usable.
The future is not AI replacing everyone.
Those who can use AI to organize work will start to leave behind those who only do manual labor.
This may be the true beginning of the Fifth Industrial Revolution.
Berkshire or the S&P 500, which is better?
Let's look at the views of Buffett and Munger.
Becky: This question comes from a long-time shareholder who has held shares for 25 years. His name is Ben Nowell, from Minneapolis, Minnesota. His question is: Mr. Munger, Mr. Buffett, over the past 15 years, Berkshire has underperformed the market, and you have become very cautious, no longer predicting that Berkshire will outperform the market in the future. Given this, what should long-term Berkshire shareholders do? Should they continue holding Berkshire or buy index funds to diversify risk?
Buffett: Charlie, how about you answer?
Munger: Sure. Compared to holding an index, I personally prefer holding Berkshire. I feel very comfortable holding Berkshire. Compared to a basket of companies in the market, the companies under Berkshire are superior.
Becky: Is that because you feel the market has not given Berkshire a fair valuation?
Munger: Price changes are just ripples in history; stock prices fluctuate constantly. I believe that the overall Berkshire portfolio can outperform the market index portfolio. Even if both of us are gone in the future, Berkshire will still outperform.
Buffett: Hmm. I recommend index funds. For a long time, I have been recommending the S&P 500 index fund to people. Regardless of Berkshire's stock price, I have never recommended Berkshire to anyone. If I recommended Berkshire, others might think I have insider information, and I don't want people to buy Berkshire because of that. However, I have publicly recommended index funds many times. In my will, I left my wife a sum of money, 90% of which is to be invested in the S&P 500 index fund, and 10% in government bonds. On the other hand, my wealth will be donated to charity in installments over twelve years, and this wealth will remain in Berkshire, which I am very confident about.
I am optimistic about Berkshire, but ordinary people do not have the ability to pick stocks. Berkshire has many shareholders who also cannot pick stocks, but fifty or sixty years ago, they chose Charlie to manage their money. Berkshire has a very special group of shareholders. They save their whole lives through Berkshire.
They feel very assured. Even if they don't look for ten or twenty years, we will manage their money well. I am optimistic about Berkshire, but for someone who cannot pick stocks and has no special attachment to Berkshire, it is best to buy the S&P 500 index.
The global bond market has been a bit "EMO" lately.
It's not because bonds suddenly became mystical, but because the market has started collectively worrying about three things:
Prices still can't be suppressed,
Interest rates still won't come down,
The cost of debt is getting more expensive.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.8%, and the government bond yields of the UK, Germany, and Japan have also risen together. Japan's 10-year government bond yield even broke through 3%, a level not seen in nearly 30 years.
The logic behind this is simple:
Rising yields = falling bond prices.
Bonds being sold off = the market demands higher returns.
The market demanding higher returns = money becomes more expensive.
Why the sudden change?
First, oil prices are rising, reigniting inflation expectations.
Second, governments around the world are heavily indebted, increasing fiscal pressure.
Third, expectations of a rate hike in September are heating up again, so no one dares to bet on easing prematurely.
So this is not just "bond market volatility."
What it truly affects is the pricing of all assets.
When the risk-free rate rises, high-valuation stocks suffer first;
Corporate financing costs increase, squeezing profit margins;
Highly indebted economies will also feel the pressure;
Even long-term bonds themselves will be hit as rates continue to rise.
Ordinary investors should not just focus on index ups and downs next.
I will focus on three things:
1. Whether the US 10-year Treasury yield will really break through 5%;
2. How long oil prices can keep rising and whether inflation will rebound;
3. Whether the major central banks in September will truly raise rates or are just trying to scare the market.
Rising oil prices -> inflation rises -> rate hike expectations heat up -> global bonds sold off -> funding costs rise -> high-valuation assets under pressure.
At this time, the most important thing is not to guess tomorrow's ups and downs,
but to check which assets in your portfolio rely on stories and which rely on cash flow.
看不懂的sol哥
Japanese government bonds reaching 3%—many people's first reaction is:
What does this have to do with me?
Actually, it matters a lot.
Because Japan has been one of the major sources of global low-interest funds for decades.
As Japanese interest rates rise again, the US 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 5%, and oil prices climb, the global market is essentially recalculating:
Is money still cheap?
If the answer becomes "not cheap anymore," the valuation logic of many assets will change.
High-valuation tech stocks will have to face discount rate pressure again;
Corporate bond financing costs will become more expensive;
Governments borrowing new debt to repay old debt will face increasing interest burdens;
Gold, the dollar, long-term bonds, and stocks will all be re-evaluated.
So the key point here is not "whether Japanese government bonds hitting 3% is scary."
What really matters is:
The floor of the global risk-free rate is rising.
When money was cheap, the market could give stories higher valuations.
Now that money is expensive, the market will be more selective:
Is there cash flow?
Is the debt heavy?
Is the valuation expensive?
Can profits withstand high interest rates?
Will exchange rates and oil prices continue to bring inflationary pressure?
Ordinary people don’t need to guess daily ups and downs, but at least should watch these four things more closely:
US 10-year Treasury yield;
Japanese 10-year government bond yield;
Brent crude oil price;
USD/CNY exchange rate.
Because these are not isolated numbers—they determine the global cost of capital, direction, and risk appetite.
In a high-interest-rate era, money is more expensive, risk assets are more selective, and what truly matters is cash flow.
Good night on Saturday, brothers
Today is the 613th day I have been dollar-cost averaging with OKX, and today's investment has been logged.
Let's take a quick look at the weekend market:
BTC is still fluctuating around 80,000. After a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll on Friday, it surged then pulled back; short-term sentiment is less restless.
The US stock market has closed, and Monday is Labor Day in the US, so it won't reopen until Tuesday. Over the weekend, trading volume will be thinner, and the volatility might look lively but shouldn't be taken too seriously.
Having invested for 613 days, the easiest mistake to make over the weekend is treating the market closure as an opportunity to overanalyze.
The market is paused, but the mind keeps spinning: should I adjust the amount, wait until Tuesday, or make up for what I didn't buy this week? If the plan was executed on Friday, just let it rest on Saturday and Sunday.
Rest is also part of dollar-cost averaging.
For dollar-cost averaging, I only use #OKX
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there's no need to panic.
This time, the US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly higher than expected; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, unchanged from last month; average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year.
At first glance, it does look strong.
But I think this data shouldn't be simply interpreted as "imminent rate hikes."
Because within the new jobs, restaurants added 59,000 and local government education added 42,000, together contributing 101,000, which is the majority.
In other words, employment looks strong on the surface, but the structure is not broadly overheated.
More importantly, wages.
If employment is strong and wages are out of control, that would be truly problematic.
But now average hourly earnings up 0.3% looks more like a moderate range, with no clear wage-inflation spiral formed yet.
So my understanding is:
This non-farm payroll report will make it harder for the Fed to quickly turn dovish, and short-term rate expectations will fluctuate;
but it alone is not enough to determine the policy direction for September.
What we really need to watch next are CPI and PPI.
If inflation remains sticky, US Treasury yields may continue to pressure risk assets;
if inflation cools down, then this employment data actually indicates the economy still has resilience, and the market may not remain pessimistic.
For ordinary investors, don't be scared by one data point, nor rush in because of one data point.
The key is not whether "non-farm payrolls are good or bad," but:
Whether employment is resilient, wages are under control, and inflation is easing.
These three combined are the real answer to the Fed's next move.
Japanese government bonds reaching 3%—many people's first reaction is:
What does this have to do with me?
Actually, it matters a lot.
Because Japan has been one of the major sources of global low-interest funds for decades.
As Japanese interest rates rise again, the US 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 5%, and oil prices climb, the global market is essentially recalculating:
Is money still cheap?
If the answer becomes "not cheap anymore," the valuation logic of many assets will change.
High-valuation tech stocks will have to face discount rate pressure again;
Corporate bond financing costs will become more expensive;
Governments borrowing new debt to repay old debt will face increasing interest burdens;
Gold, the dollar, long-term bonds, and stocks will all be re-evaluated.
So the key point here is not "whether Japanese government bonds hitting 3% is scary."
What really matters is:
The floor of the global risk-free rate is rising.
When money was cheap, the market could give stories higher valuations.
Now that money is expensive, the market will be more selective:
Is there cash flow?
Is the debt heavy?
Is the valuation expensive?
Can profits withstand high interest rates?
Will exchange rates and oil prices continue to bring inflationary pressure?
Ordinary people don’t need to guess daily ups and downs, but at least should watch these four things more closely:
US 10-year Treasury yield;
Japanese 10-year government bond yield;
Brent crude oil price;
USD/CNY exchange rate.
Because these are not isolated numbers—they determine the global cost of capital, direction, and risk appetite.
In a high-interest-rate era, money is more expensive, risk assets are more selective, and what truly matters is cash flow.
What the market really needs to watch today is the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 PM tonight.
Earlier, the ADP small nonfarm already gave a signal:
August added 38,000 jobs, below the expected 47,000 and also below the previous 44,000.
Simply put, employment is starting to cool down.
This is also why the U.S. Treasury yield fell from the intraday high of 4.82% to around 4.78%, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike has also cooled.
But the problem is, ADP is just a warm-up.
What really influences the Fed's judgment is tonight's nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data.
If nonfarm payrolls continue to be weak, it means the labor market is indeed slowing down, weakening the Fed's reason to raise rates further, and risk assets might breathe a sigh of relief.
If nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, especially if wages remain strong, the market will worry again:
Is inflation still uncontrollable?
Does the Fed need to remain hawkish?
Will U.S. Treasury yields surge again?
So tonight is not just about one employment number, but three things:
Whether new employment has clearly cooled;
Whether the unemployment rate continues to rise;
Whether wage growth is sticky.
My understanding is simple:
What the market fears most now is not a slightly weak economy, but "the economy still strong, inflation still sticky, and interest rates still high."
If employment cools but doesn't collapse, that is actually the most comfortable scenario for the market.
Because it means a soft landing for the economy is still possible, and the Fed has reason to gradually shift.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first key test for the September market trend.
For ordinary people learning investment, it ultimately comes down to one thing:
Can you develop your own system?
Learning about macroeconomics, interest rates, inflation, and asset allocation beforehand is to help you understand why the market moves;
but in the end, it still comes down to companies, industries, financial reports, and your own investment decisions.
Otherwise, it’s easy to fall into a state where:
You’ve read a lot about macroeconomics but still don’t know what to buy;
You know many concepts but still can’t hold your positions;
You scroll through the news every day but end up being driven by emotions.
So the last two steps of the radar are crucial:
First, understand the company.
Don’t just chase hot topics right away; first ask four questions:
Is the industry space still large?
Does this company have a moat?
Are the revenue, profit, and cash flow in the financial reports healthy?
Is the current valuation expensive or cheap, and where exactly is it expensive or cheap?
True long-term investment isn’t about who surges today, but about who can continuously make money, expand advantages, and survive cycles.
Index funds are essentially a basket of companies.
You don’t have to heavily hold individual stocks, but you must understand companies.
Because only by understanding companies can you understand why the index rises long-term and know whether a certain drop is risk release or a breakdown of logic.
Second, build your own investment system.
What ordinary people fear most is not making one wrong call, but acting on impulse every time.
Wanting to chase when prices rise, wanting to cut losses when prices fall;
Feeling anxious when others show profits, doubting when the market pulls back;
Feeling enlightened in a bull market, feeling investment is meaningless in a bear market.
So in the end, you must write down the rules:
What is my return target?
How much drawdown can I tolerate?
Which assets are my long-term core holdings?
When do I invest regularly, when do I add positions, when do I reduce positions?
If I’m wrong, what are my stop-loss or adjustment rules?
This system doesn’t need to be complicated but must be stable.
In the end, investing is not about who has more information, but who makes fewer mistakes, survives longer, and stays calm at critical moments.
Macro determines direction, asset allocation determines win rate, company research determines quality, and the investment system determines whether you can truly keep your money.
看不懂的sol哥
The fourth step of the ordinary person's economic radar is not about learning more knowledge, but about starting to manage oneself.
In the end, the hardest part of investing is not understanding the macroeconomy or financial reports, but understanding your own reactions.
Wanting to chase when prices rise,
Wanting to run when prices fall,
Regretting selling too early,
Holding on stubbornly after buying at a high price,
Feeling anxious when others make money,
Questioning life when you lose money yourself.
These are not individual problems; this is human nature.
Therefore, the fifth stage to improve is investment psychology and risk control.
You need to know that the most costly mistakes in the market are often not about getting the direction wrong once, but about emotions taking over the system.
Selling long-term assets out of panic.
Chasing high-valued assets because of FOMO.
Clinging stubbornly to a cost basis because of anchoring.
Mistaking luck for ability due to overconfidence.
Only seeing information that supports your own judgment because of confirmation bias.
A truly mature investor is not one without emotions, but one who has rules to limit emotions.
Ask 10 questions before buying:
Why am I buying?
How long do I plan to hold?
What role does it play in my portfolio?
What is the maximum drawdown I can accept?
Is the valuation reasonable?
Has the fundamental changed?
Does the macro environment support it?
Are there alternative choices?
What if I am wrong?
What are the stop-loss or rebalancing rules?
These questions may seem troublesome, but they help you make fewer impulsive decisions.
The sixth stage is to broaden your perspective to Chinese assets and the global cycle.
Because ordinary people cannot just look at one market.
China has its own policy cycle, real estate cycle, and credit cycle.
The U.S. has its own inflation cycle, interest rate cycle, and dollar cycle.
Globally, there are big variables like deglobalization, supply chain restructuring, energy, military industry, and semiconductors.
Even within tech stocks, Chinese tech, U.S. tech, and Hong Kong tech have different underlying pricing logics.
A-shares focus on policy, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Hong Kong stocks focus on dollar liquidity, China's fundamentals, and foreign capital sentiment.
U.S. stocks focus on earnings, interest rates, and tech capital expenditure.
Gold focuses on real interest rates and monetary credit.
BTC focuses on liquidity, risk appetite, and cyclical sentiment.
When you put these variables on one chart, investing is no longer about guessing price movements, but about judging: which cycle we are in now, which assets have advantages, and which risks are accumulating.
Ordinary people don't need to predict the market every day.
But they must know what they are betting on.
Don't bet on direction, bet on cycles.
Don't bet on the future, manage risk.
Don't chase hot spots, build a system.
In the end, you will find that what the economic radar truly trains is not "market-watching ability," but long-term survival ability.
Good night on Thursday, brothers
Today is the 611th day I have been dollar-cost averaging with OKX, and today's investment has been logged.
A quick look at the market:
BTC has once again broken through 80,000 tonight, currently heading for the third breakthrough. Looking forward to the follow-up performance, aiming to hold above 80,000.
The US stock market is also quiet, indices are up, and overall data has improved compared to before. Technology and AI are performing well.
On the 611th day of dollar-cost averaging, the hardest part is not buying, but sticking to the plan after buying.
When the market fluctuates, people tend to get itchy hands: wanting to add when it rises, wanting to pause when it falls. The real difference is often made by those who buy as scheduled every day and don’t repeatedly review the market afterward.
After logging today, just let it go.
For dollar-cost averaging, I only use #OKX
