wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Someone asked me again why I cut my positions so aggressively over the weekend. I only kept a small short on one of the two perpetual contracts and reduced my spot holdings by 30%. It's not that I can't see the direction, but the liquidity over the weekend—if a black swan event really happens, the order book is so thin that no one will take your orders, and slippage can bury you alive. The basic skill of a professional trader is not to go all-in on every trade, but to make sure every bet matches the volatility you can bear. Position size always comes before directional judgment. Only those who survive can talk about the next round. $BTC
Someone else privately asked me why I don't open trades every day. Because what I rely on isn't the frequency of opening trades, but the position size when I get those few right. A professional card player folds 80% of their hands in one night; the real heavy bets are only on a few hands—trading is exactly the same. If you enter and exit twenty times a day, the fees plus emotional wear will eat up half your profits first, and even if the direction is right, you're just working for the exchange. Earning less is not shameful; getting slapped back and forth within a range is. Save your bullets for the truly unbalanced moment. $ETH How many trades do you open in a day? You know the answer yourself.
Besent is speaking out again: No need to worry about the AI bubble, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are all investing real money. Every time officials come out to reassure "there is no bubble," my radar goes off even more. Before a bubble bursts, there’s always someone on stage telling you this time is different, that cash flow can sustain it. I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm saying: when "reassurance" itself becomes news, it means the market has already been asking this question. The same rhetoric is also used on the yield side — "in line with global trends, no need to panic." A trader’s job isn’t to believe or not believe, but to see how prices and positions align. I don’t bet a single cent on verbal reassurances. Do you buy into this?
How fake can the market be on Saturday? The volume ratio is all around 0 point something, almost no one is present. This kind of vacuum period is the easiest time for wild moves—a single spike wipes out your stop loss and then pulls back. Retail investors call this bad luck; I call it going all in on an empty table. Anyone who plays cards knows that when there are few players and the pot is dry, the best move is often to fold and wait for everyone to join. The market is the same—spikes without volume support aren’t worth risking your entire stake. On weekends, I only keep half my position, widen my stop loss, and for the rest—patience is more valuable than position size. Are you the type who can’t sit still on weekends and has to make a few moves?
This week I flipped my position five times, someone should be laughing: Isn't the bear god always bearish? Trading is not about putting on a show. The direction is meant to be realized, not worshipped — after the expected drop is done, you should reverse your position. Holding stubbornly to a thesis until liquidation is not faith, it's stubbornness. The premise of low-frequency big bets is precisely: when it's time to cut losses, be faster than anyone else. On thin weekend markets, I'd rather hold a half-hedged net long overnight than go in with one leg bare to endure a spike. Your biggest problem has never been picking the wrong direction, but sticking to the right direction at the wrong timing and refusing to admit it. $BTC How many times have you flipped your position this week?
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wesley教授
Strategists put themselves into the game, winning half the battle against fate. They have been doing this for 10 years already. If I don't step up to lead this time, they will continue for another 10 years. As Mr. Lu Xun said, if I remain a cold bystander today, when disaster strikes me tomorrow, no one will cheer me on. This time, with a sword raised, the sword immortals of the poker circle have all drawn their swords, slaying demons and eliminating evil, a duty they cannot shirk.
Strategists put themselves into the game, winning half the battle against fate. They have been doing this for 10 years already. If I don't step up to lead this time, they will continue for another 10 years. As Mr. Lu Xun said, if I remain a cold bystander today, when disaster strikes me tomorrow, no one will cheer me on. This time, with a sword raised, the sword immortals of the poker circle have all drawn their swords, slaying demons and eliminating evil, a duty they cannot shirk.
Trump painted another big promise today: if the Republicans take both chambers in the midterm elections, they will give every adult citizen $5,000. Many people in the comments section have already started calculating how much they would get.
Traders should change their mindset: such large-scale money distribution promises, if truly fulfilled, mean continued fiscal expansion → widening deficits → greater pressure on US debt supply → long-term yields harder to suppress. For leveraged risk assets, this is not candy, but a bill. Politicians' slogans are meant for voters; the market only recognizes the deficit sheet. Do you really believe he will pay it?
Woke up to more smoke in the Middle East: explosions reported near Iran's Qeshm Island waters, thick smoke and fire near a Saudi Aramco facility, and North Korea test-fired a medium-range missile again at dawn. As usual, some in the comments are shouting "War is coming, buy crypto to hedge."
Hold on. If you ask me, this kind of geopolitical escalation has never been a safe-haven buying spree for crypto. Instead, it first pushes oil prices, then inflation expectations, and finally drives US Treasury yields higher—putting pressure on risk assets. To verify, just watch one thing: whether oil and US Treasuries move. If they stay put, this wave is just background noise. $BTC, don’t overdramatize yourself.
Today $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all dropped by two points together. On the surface, this seems favorable for my short positions. But what I'm watching isn't this small floating profit, it's the underlying trend—the US stock market is rising, the dollar is retreating from its yearly high, and oil is also declining; risk appetite is actually warming up.
This is the biggest headwind for my positions: the market gives me face, but the macro environment is undermining me. The biggest taboo in trading is only looking at the half of the picture that favors you. Right now, I'm going with the short-term trend but against the medium-term one. I know exactly who I'm competing with and when I need to admit I'm wrong. For the positions you hold, the headwind side—do you dare to show it?