#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
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The Fed's September rate decision lands Sept 16 at 18:00 UTC. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC have shifted to a 25bps hike; 86 of 101 economists in a Reuters survey agree, market pricing near 90%. If delivered, fed funds moves to 3.75%-4.00%. Key data: August PPI 5.4% YoY, CPI 0.4% MoM. Goldman sees this as the Fed avoiding a pricing reversal rather than reacting to worsening fundamentals. Trump remains opposed. If the Fed holds, how it explains the inflation-policy gap will be watched.
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Is the Federal Reserve going to "raise interest rates continuously"? Will the "tightening cycle" of the late 1980s repeat?
Original Title: "Will the Federal Reserve 'Raise Rates Consecutively'? Will the Late 1980s 'Tightening Cycle' Repeat?"
Original Source: Wall Street Insights
Citibank's report points out that the current macro environment is highly similar to the 1988-1989 tightening cycle, during which the economy remained resilient, inflationary pressures gradually accumulated, and economic activity slowed before policy shifted to easing. During that tightening cycle, the Federal Reserve raised rates 16 con
The Fed decides on Wednesday.
A week out, @Polymarket and @Kalshi both put a 25bp hike at 55%. That is the closest an FOMC contract has come to a coin flip this late: across 27 settled decisions since 2023, the leading outcome at the same point had a median of 96% and never fell below 79%.
Even after August CPI landed on Friday morning, the 25bp hike odds moved from 57% to 80%, a major jump but still below the usual consensus.
Polymarket and Kalshi in one schema, with three years of settled
MARKET RESET — TWO SHOCKS AT ONCE
$BTC $75.68K, $ETH $2.40K, $SOL $97.13K. But this is more than just a pullback. The CLARITY Act just failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote, while markets await the FOMC decision on September 16.
With the regulatory catalyst weakening + the Fed becoming the key variable, capital may remain cautious. The question now isn’t “where is the bottom?” but “when will liquidity return?”
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteStillDivided
🚨 Crypto has a big 48 hours ahead.
The U.S. Senate is scheduled to take a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act today, while the Federal Reserve's rate decision comes tomorrow.
That puts $BTC, $ETH and $SOL in an interesting position.
If the market gets regulatory clarity while liquidity expectations improve, risk appetite could change quickly.
But if the Fed stays hawkish, crypto could face another round of pressure.
This is why I'm not chasing candles right now.
There are real catalysts in front of us.
Let the market react first.
Then decide what the reaction is actually telling us.
The next move could be more interesting than the current one.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteStillDivided #US10YearYieldBreaks5%
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 87% chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 bps at tomorrow's FOMC meeting
$BTC may drop because the price is already pricing in the news 🔽🔽
$BTC holding flat while $ETH slips 0.83% is a weak foundation for a broad risk-on call. $SOL's marginal gain does little to change that read.
With the FOMC rate call in focus, I read this as a market holding its ground, not building momentum. $ETH's relative weakness is the detail that matters.
Just my read, not advice.$BTC $ETH
“The Clarity Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.”
“A rate hike is expected tomorrow with FOMC, so BTC is going to dump even more.”
Little do they know, the market has already priced in those expectations. That’s why it’s dumping BEFORE the news is released.
By the time the news gives the crowd a reason to sell, they are already selling into the very bids that mark the bottom.
BTC holding flat while ETH slips 0.83% is a weak foundation for a broad risk-on call. SOL's marginal gain does little to change that read.
With the FOMC rate call in focus, I read this as a market holding its ground, not building momentum. ETH's relative weakness is the detail that matters.
Just my read, not advice.$BTC $ETH
🚨 Worst-case setup for crypto:
If the crypto bill fails while a rate hike gets pushed toward October, markets could see a serious risk-off move.
A sharp sell-off could potentially drag $BTC toward $71.5K and $ETH toward $2.15K.
Some of this risk may already be priced in, but the current weakness suggests downside pressure could still have room to play out.
⚠️ Stay cautious around the FOMC.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged
The most bearish scenario: if the crypto bill fails and a rate hike is pushed to October, crypto could face a major risk-off event.
A sharp daily sell-off could send $BTC toward $71.5K and $ETH toward $2.15K.
The market may already be pricing in these risks, but current weakness suggests the pain may not be fully reflected yet.
Stay cautious around the FOMC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The 25bp Fed hike landed, yet Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw ~$160M in net inflows. 👀
Markets often price in hikes before they happen, so the actual decision can become “old news.”
BTC is now around $78K–$79K, with $82,470 as the key 50-week MA. A clean break and hold above it could signal stronger momentum.
Can BTC reclaim $82.5K? 📈
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow