$BTC $ETH $SOL Conclusion first We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30% Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back Let's all get rich together

$BTC BTC has pulled back from above $80,000 to around $78,000, with the active buy-to-sell ratio in the perpetual contract market dropping to 0.956, and the 7-day average also falling below 1. This indicator measures the ratio of active buy volume to active sell volume in perpetual contracts. A value below 1 indicates that recently, contract traders have been more actively selling at market price, showing a bearish bias in the short-term derivatives market. However, this metric alone cannot determine whether these sell orders come from new short positions or from long positions actively closing. The former is usually accompanied by an increase in open interest, while the latter is more likely accompanied by a decrease in open interest; these two scenarios have different implications for the subsequent market trend. Therefore, what can be confirmed now is: During BTC's pullback, sellers in perpetual contracts have been more active; but to judge whether shorts will continue to add positions, one must also consider open interest and funding rates. If active selling dominates and open interest continues to rise, short pressure is more concerning; if open interest decreases, it is more likely long positions are deleveraging.

$BTC Looking at the aggregated CVD on the 1h chart, it's quite interesting: Chasing the rally, selling, bottom fishing, selling/stop loss On the macro side: The probability of a rate hike is approaching 70% Crude oil rose 8% in one week Options data expiring on September 18: Put wall 72000 Key level 75873. In the past few days, the battle between bulls and bears has been around 77.5k, but the lows are getting lower. Bears are gradually gaining the upper hand, but the bulls' efforts have not been completely crushed. It is recommended to short on a small rebound to 78-79k, and close positions between 72-73.7k.

$BTC Yesterday, Bitcoin once again tested the resistance level at 79,000. Several attempts to break above failed to hold, and after facing selling pressure, it retreated. Currently, the market is oscillating repeatedly within the 77,000-79,000 range. The market is currently experiencing intense battles between bulls and bears. Every time the price approaches 79,000, a large volume of sell orders emerges to suppress the market, and the bulls have yet to overcome this barrier. The price is being pulled back and forth within this range, making it easy for many traders to get caught in stop orders. Trading long or short near the middle of this range carries significant risk. Based on the market situation, I lean towards the price undergoing a correction first, breaking down to test support around 76,000. This round of consolidation is essentially a shakeout, clearing out traders with weak conviction to make room for a subsequent rebound. Pay close attention to the key level at 76,000. If the price falls here and buying support is sufficient to halt the decline, a rebound will likely begin. The first target for the rebound is the 80,000 level, which is the next resistance the bulls need to overcome. If the price can effectively break through 80,000, bullish sentiment will be boosted, and the market could push further upward to challenge around 82,000.

$BTC Last night, Bitcoin again followed the US stock market's ups and downs. The original flag pattern is no longer valid, and a new flag pattern has formed. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around the 5-day MA62 moving average, as well as the soon-to-come 6-hour MA62, forming a new trendline. Ethereum is doing the same, forming a new trendline near the 6-hour level overnight. Overall, the market is currently fluctuating along with the US stock market. The weekly support for Nasdaq futures is around 28800, which is actually quite close. It is expected that Bitcoin and Ethereum's adjustments are nearly complete. The overall outlook remains bullish, because Bitcoin's 5-day MA62 is a major support level, which has been broken through and held steady for a long time. This time is a retest of that support, and it will bounce back up again.

$BTC From the daily chart perspective of Bitcoin, on the surface, the price hasn't yet reached the May high of 82k, but the overall technical backdrop of the market has completely changed. The core change is that Bitcoin has strongly and voluminously broken through the daily SMA200 "bull-bear watershed" and the bull market support zone. During the May rally, the moving averages were still suppressing downward, but this time it is a structured upward breakthrough. Currently, the market is waiting to test the support of the SMA200. As long as the pullback does not break below and completes the top-to-bottom conversion, it basically confirms the transition from the bear market gloom to a bull market structure. The market trend often depends not on how high the absolute price is, but on whether the structure has completely reversed.

$BTC BTC Market Analysis Actual Trend: The price peaked near 79,400, then has been fluctuating widely. Currently, the price is around 78,000. Future Trend: Chip vacuum The latest short-term bearish attack is at 78,950, with the trend pointing downward; mid-term is sideways; long-term bearish attack but filled, indicating sideways movement. This indicator shows a short-term bearish attack defense line at 78,950, with mid- and long-term sideways outlook. Price Channel Volume-weighted short-term average price is 77,510, upper limit 94,690, lower limit 67,640. Volume-weighted mid-term average price is 73,180, upper limit 80,703, lower limit 65,600. Volume-weighted long-term average price is 80,950, upper limit 93,143, lower limit 72,450. According to this indicator, basically no change from above; price support remains near 77,500. The current price is above the average price, indicating an upward trend, but resistance at 80,950 still exists. The price will fluctuate widely between 77,500 and 80,950. Equity short-term average price is 67,240, upper limit 81,100, lower limit 62,310. Equity mid-term average price is 67,870, upper limit 80,700, lower limit 62,500. Equity long-term average price is 68,570, upper limit 80,450, lower limit 62,500. According to this indicator, basically no change from above; after the price peaks, a slight pullback is expected, with resistance near 80,500. From both indicators, the upper resistance is fairly consistent at 81,000. Currently, the price is still in an upward trend but mainly fluctuating widely between 77,500 and 80,950.

$BTC After Bitcoin reaches 62500-81500, it will do a daily line pullback It will be a small pullback of about 4000-5000 The downward blue small arrow indicates that if it dips to 76500-75800 with a wick, you can bottom-fish and go long, then rise to 82000-83000 to close the long position. It's also normal for most to close longs early around 81000. Then from 82000-83500, short again down to 71000 This 71000 is the daily ma120 average price. Regardless of bull or bear market, this is a price it will inevitably reach sooner or later. (I have a small short position with an average price of 75000 forcibly closed with a loss of 300,000, and I’m still holding it for this reason) Do not mess around recklessly. I won’t trade during random chaotic fluctuations anymore. I’ve already shorted at 81000 and 79000. I won’t waste energy or affect my mindset with chaotic trading this week. I want to quietly and patiently wait for a crocodile strike opportunity.

$BTC Currently, the K-line is narrowing. Since there is no short structure, I will continue to look for opportunities to go long. My first plan is: after breaking below 76,800, wait for the price to rebound before going long. If there is no rebound, I will not enter the market. The second plan is around 75,500, also choosing right-side trading, waiting for rebound confirmation before going long. At this stage, I prefer to stay out rather than short. The first wave of the rise should be ending soon, with the endpoint around 83K. The subsequent second wave correction is when I will go all-in on spot buying. Be patient, BTC will not directly rise to 120,000. There are midterm elections in November, and from September to November, it is highly likely to experience a second wave correction plus consolidation.

$BTC BTC is currently around $77,900, with net inflows to exchanges turning positive for the past three consecutive reporting days. This means that the amount of BTC entering exchanges has started to exceed the amount leaving, indicating a short-term potential increase in sellable supply. However, the scale of recent net inflows is not extreme, and the 7-day average remains negative, so overall net outflows have persisted over the past week. Therefore, this currently looks more like a marginal change in capital flow rather than a direct indication that large holders are concentrating on selling. BTC transferred into exchanges could also be used for market making, custody adjustments, or margin replenishment, and does not necessarily enter the spot market. Next, we need to watch two signals: whether net inflows to exchanges continue to expand, and whether BTC can absorb this new supply as it approaches $80,000. If net inflows keep increasing but the price repeatedly fails to break through $80,000, the judgment that selling pressure above is strengthening will have more basis; if net inflows end quickly and the price remains stable in the current range, it is more likely just normal capital reallocation after a rise. Although this data alone cannot be used to take a bearish stance, it is now necessary to start paying attention to these potential selling pressures.

$BTC At BTC's current position, there's really nothing much to guess. The price has been oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000 USD, unable to break upward for now, and there's no obvious selling pressure downward either. After the rapid rebound in August, both bulls and bears are now waiting for new reasons. Bulls are waiting for a firm hold above 80,000 USD, bears are waiting for oil prices and interest rate hike expectations to continue exerting pressure, and more people are waiting for Friday's non-farm payroll data. There's no need to rush guessing the direction at this position. Those who believe the bull market isn't over will add positions on pullbacks and hold for 3 years; those who don't believe don't need to force themselves to participate, just wait until November to see how the market develops and confirm before buying.