星期天-77
星期天-77
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$BTC has put on a complete textbook example of a shakeout for me these past few days.
First, it surged up to 85258 with strong momentum, but after hitting that high, it reversed sharply and dropped all the way down to 82556. That drop was really fast, with almost no decent rebound, making me sweat for the bulls holding long positions.
Then over the last two days, it slowly climbed back up, hovering above 84000 for a while. Yesterday it pushed up near 84500 but was slammed back down, now sitting at 83683. It’s up a bit but basically stuck in limbo.
Honestly, looking at this movement, it seems like it’s digested all the divergences accumulated around 85000 in the past few days. First it crushed the longs, then the shorts, and now it’s back in the middle. The RSI is stuck around 50, showing no clear direction.
I personally didn’t dare to bottom-fish around 82500—not because I didn’t see it as a low point, but that bearish candle was so fast and brutal that my mind couldn’t keep up with my hands. Looking back now, I missed out, but to be honest, bottom-fishing in that waterfall drop carries risks and rewards that don’t balance well for a cautious person like me.
It’s been sideways here for two days now, with the 84000 line becoming the tug-of-war focus. If it breaks above, it might retest 85000; if it can’t hold, it might fall back to test the 82500 pit again. Anyway, I’m just watching the show. In these stuck phases, it’s better to think than to act. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
Solana led the decline today, which is a different story from $BTC and $ETH — the core development team confirmed today that the Alpenglow upgrade is still on the testnet, with no set date for the mainnet, completely contradicting the previous expectation of "mainnet launch in late September." SOL surged from 112 to 124 in the past few weeks, largely driven by this expectation building long positions. Once the expectation was disproven, event-driven longs immediately closed their positions and exited, which is the direct reason $SOL dropped to 116.61. At the same time, on-chain monitoring detected a transfer of 500,000 SOL (about $60.5 million) to Binance, a typical sell pressure signal.
The decline in BTC and ETH follows a different logic: strong economic data pushed up inflation expectations, US Treasury yields came under pressure and rose, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions supporting the US dollar, all together lowering the market's risk appetite for high-beta assets — as shown in the chart, BTC fell back to 83,006, ETH retracted to 2659.42, both passive declines without new bad news.
The difference is this: SOL's story was disproven, while BTC and ETH are facing a cooling environment. Without a set date for Alpenglow, SOL is unlikely to have an independent rally; BTC and ETH are waiting for a turning point in US Treasury yields, not a project announcement.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化
These two data points this week will set the pace for interest rate hikes over the next month, but $BTC didn't wait for the data to come out and already stirred up sentiment — dropping from 85,137.5 to 82,501.0, washing out positions in two days.
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, the August PCE will be released, and at 20:30 on October 2, the September non-farm payrolls will be announced. These are the two most important data windows after the Fed's first rate hike in three years on September 16. CME data shows the market has priced in two more hikes this year (one each on October 27-28 and December). Whether the PCE cools down and whether non-farm payrolls continue to show resilience will directly determine if this pricing holds. Fed officials have also been speaking intensively this week, with Jefferson set to directly discuss the monetary policy path.
BTC has already priced in uncertainty over the past two days: dropping from 85,137.5 to 82,501.0, now rebounding to 83,570.7. The MACD histogram has turned positive, and the KDJ indicator is rising from a low — this is a "dip first out of respect" before stabilizing ahead of the data release, not a trend reversal, but a position adjustment for early risk aversion.
The real test comes on Wednesday and Friday: if both data points are hot, the October rate hike pricing will be further realized, and US Treasury yields and the dollar will likely rise, which is not good news for BTC; if both data points weaken simultaneously, it might give the market some breathing room to think "rate hikes are over." Before the data lands, any directional judgment is just speculation. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Woke up a little after 5 a.m., couldn't resist checking the market.
$BTC 83500, $ETH 2686. At first glance, nothing much, but when I scrolled back, wow.
The day before yesterday, BTC surged to over 85100, and I was thinking maybe it's about to take off, even planning how much to add. But yesterday it dropped all the way to 82500, and ETH fell from 2724 to 2633.
I stared at the screen for a long time. Wanted to add some, but afraid of catching a falling knife. Wanted to run, but reluctant since I've held for so long. Went back and forth, and in the end did nothing, just casually browsed other people's posts for half an hour, seeing everyone complaining.
Then just now in the early morning, everything pulled back up.
Honestly, it's a bit hard to hold. Another "I wanted to buy earlier" situation—didn't dare when it dropped, regretted when it went back up, always like this. Been doing this for eight years, and this flaw hasn't changed at all. Sometimes I wonder if I'm just not cut out for this.
My friend messaged me last night asking "Should I buy the dip?" I replied, "You go first, tell me after you do," but he didn't dare move either. Everyone's chicken, but the market sure knows how to play.
Now both coins are basically back to where they started, but my mindset has run back and forth twice. The account hasn't changed much, but I've lost a few hairs.
Don't want to chase, don't want to sell, just hold on like this.
Did any of you jump in during that dip yesterday? Tell me, let me envy you a bit.
Right at Monday's open, this happens to me again, $BTC is dropping further.
This morning it was still hovering around 84,000 to 85,000, surged above 85,000 with a long upper shadow candle, I felt a bit shaky at that moment. Sure enough, it turned bearish all the way down, now at 83,400, down more than 1%, not too bad but very annoying.
That low point of 83,174 from Saturday is being tested again now. Honestly, every time I see such a previous low right underfoot, it makes me nervous. If it holds, everyone’s happy; if it breaks, it’s another round down. I don’t really want to move the small position I have now—adding risks catching a falling knife, reducing risks missing a bounce. It’s a battle between itchy fingers and hesitation.
BTC has been like this these past few days: surge, pull back, surge again, pull back again, going around this range every day. Brothers, are you holding or have you already exited? I’m watching the 83,000 line for now, not daring to make any rash moves.
$ZEC surged to 1,695.50 in just over a day, but has already retraced 7%—those chasing near the new high are now at a floating loss.
Current price is 1,576.58, down 4.42% in 24 hours. MA5/10/20 have formed a bearish alignment, price is below the super trend line at 1,639.76, MACD's DIF remains below DEA, RSI6 at 31.59 is approaching oversold but hasn't entered it.
Many people take institutional products as a reason to catch the dip, but it needs to be analyzed separately: Grayscale's ZCSH High Income ETF submitted on 9/25 is an income fund based on options premium collection, does not hold ZEC, and holders' upside gains are capped by sold call options, so it does not directly buy the coin. The real accumulation is in the spot ZCSH: as of 9/18, assets were 914.5 million USD with a cumulative net inflow of 271 million; part of the nearly 1 billion scale is due to coin price appreciation.
My action: neither chasing nor bottom fishing, just observing until price stands back above MA20 (1,614.24); for those holding, watch the previous low at 1,455.49.
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
Watching $NEAR surge from 4.087 all the way up to 5.581, then slowly pull back, the hardest part today isn’t missing out, it’s "wanting to chase but not daring to."
At 10 o'clock this candlestick opened at 5.304 and closed at 5.297, with a change of -0.15% and a volatility of 2%, looking like it's treading water. But looking back, the current price is already below the three short moving averages, the KDJ J value dropped to 11.39, RSI(6) is only 41, and the sentiment is clearly cooler than a few hours ago.
Friends who chased the highs earlier are probably struggling now: should they cut losses? Those who haven't entered are debating: should they buy the dip? My old problem is wanting to have it both ways, and ending up losing on both ends.
The rule I've developed over the years is simple: don't take trades without a plan. If you want to chase, chase the previous levels, not chase first and then think about stop loss; if you want to buy the dip, wait for it to stabilize on its own, don’t catch the falling knife.
Everyone has seen the positive news like ETFs and ecosystem data, but the good news is no one can really calculate "how much of that is already priced in." So for now, I’m staying put and watching.
$SOL has now fallen below 120, confirming that the short squeeze logic has already burned out — MACD turned negative, KDJ's J value dropped to 42.54. This is not a deep correction; it's the natural exhaustion of the gains piled up by forced liquidations, unrelated to the actual launch of Alpenglow. Before the launch, this momentum is already insufficient.
The 116 support line is now critical — if it can't hold here, it means this short-term squeeze rally is completely over. Next, we can only wait for the actual launch news of Alpenglow to reignite the market; relying on sentiment alone won't sustain a second round.
$ZEC has surged more fiercely than $BTC this time, and it's not purely a follow-the-trend move—21Shares just launched the first physical Zcash ETP on a European exchange, Grayscale's ZCSH fund size has surged to $949 million, and even the Winklevoss-backed treasury company is hoarding coins and mining. This buying pressure is a different game from the leveraged long-short battles on the BTC side.
But don't forget it just went through a textbook sharp drop last week—on September 22 it peaked at 1648.70, then crashed back to around 1523 the next day, dropping nearly 8%, indicating that the chips at this level are very crowded. Once profit-taking starts, it results in double-digit pullbacks. Now at 1651.05, it's just another rally, which doesn't mean history won't repeat.
If this round of ETF and ETP inflows is truly for long-term allocation, why does the price volatility still look like leveraged trading, with daily moves in double digits?
#21Shares推出欧洲首只ZcashETP
Here's my take: The net inflow of $ETH ETFs has actually turned positive in the past two days — over the last 7 days, more than 211,638 ETH flowed in, equivalent to $563 million. On September 24 alone, $130 million flowed in, which should be bullish. But if you look at the chart, the price didn't cooperate: on 9/25 it surged near 2787 trying to hit 2800 but was immediately pushed back, and since then until today (9/27) it has been grinding in a narrow range between 2687-2700. Yesterday's full-day volatility was only 0.20%, and the MA5, MA10, and MA20 lines are basically stuck together, looking dead.
This is the point I want to make: don't assume a price rise just because you see "ETF net inflow." Funds are flowing in, but it hasn't translated into price momentum, which is information itself. The MACD histogram has been shrinking since peaking on 9/25 and is almost gone; DIF (0.19) is still above DEA (-0.12) but the gap is narrowing; RSI6, 12, and 24 are all squeezed in the neutral zone between 50-57, no clear direction; KDJ's J value is 69.14, higher than K and D, but hasn't broken into the overbought zone. Together, these indicators mean one thing: no one wants to take a stand at this level, bulls and bears are both waiting.
My judgment is straightforward: ETF fund inflows are a slow variable and can't overcome the market's short-term hesitation. What really matters is whether 2800 can be broken with volume or if the previous low at 2626 will be retested — until then, sideways is sideways, don't imagine a direction yourself.
