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颜值糕（乞讨版）
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美国20年期国债收益率在招标后继续走高，上升5.09个基点，报5.418%，长端美债拍卖需求偏弱，财政风险溢价进一步抬升 。长端收益率上行，推高全球资产的折现率，风险资产估值承受压力，市场进一步计价美联储维持紧缩甚至加息的可能性 。当下距离FOMC议息会议已经很近，9月加息概率维持高位，美债长端持续冲高，会抬升市场杠杆资金成本，对BTC、ETH等高beta加密资产形成压制。BTC目前在76000‑76800关键支撑区间震荡，一旦长端收益率继续上行，支撑被击穿的风险加大，下方目标看向75000，上方阻力78500‑80000。ETH短线2465由支撑转为压力，2380是重要防守位置，走势高度跟随大饼。叠加CLARITY法案年内通过预期降温，多重宏观变量集中，盘面插针、多空双杀风险上升，合约杠杆务必收紧，谨慎博弈单边行情。$KO #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
颜值糕（乞讨版）
The US plans to sell 2,000-pound heavy bombs to Israel, escalating Middle East risks again, putting $BTC and $ETH under pressure
Heavy geopolitical news has emerged: the US plans to sell 2,000-pound heavy bombs to Israel, raising the risk premium of military conflict in the Middle East once more. Concerns about shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have returned to the market.
The logic of the crypto market under geopolitical events is quite unique: at the initial stage when the news breaks, BTC and ETH are mostly treated as risk assets, with funds prioritizing deleveraging and risk aversion, leading to panic selling; only after the situation continues to ferment does the narrative of cross-border transfer of crypto assets gradually emerge.
Currently, $BTC is in the critical support range of 76,000–76,800, compounded by cooling expectations for the CLARITY Act and a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, multiple bearish factors resonate. If the Middle East situation further deteriorates, a surge in crude oil prices will push up inflation expectations, which in turn will reinforce the Fed's tightening stance and further suppress risk asset valuations. Once the 76,000 support is broken, the next target is 75,000; resistance on the upside is at 78,500–80,000, requiring volume expansion for recovery space.
$ETH is weakening along with the broader market; 2,465 has shifted from support to resistance, with the current defense level at 2,380. Its movement is highly correlated with BTC’s performance, and if BTC breaks down, ETH will struggle to hold independently.
The market is currently burdened with three major variables simultaneously: Middle East geopolitical black swan, CLARITY crypto bill voting, and the FOMC Fed meeting.
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