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猪肉荣
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有朋友问我：既然比特币持仓已经很分散，只加5%的微小杠杆行不行？ 我的建议永远是：坚决不行，哪怕5%也不可以。
杠杆最大的危害不在于这5%的爆仓概率，而在于对人性的逐步吞噬。一旦你加杠杆尝到了甜头，慢慢就不会再满足于低杠杆。杠杆一旦打开，不吃大亏，是没有回头路的。
尤其在我们正身处的超级有色周期中，行情的级别和波动率都是超级的。正如巴菲特所说：“如果你足够聪明，你完全不需要杠杆；如果你不够聪明，杠杆迟早会毁了你。”
彻底卸掉杠杆，别让剧烈的波动把你洗下车，这才是拿到终局大收益的唯一解。
猪肉荣
I still maintain a bearish view on Bitcoin, focusing on 76K as the current market watershed.
The daily large structure has not been broken. If 76K–77K holds and BTC shows a wick here → quickly recovers → forms a higher low on the 4-hour chart, it indicates that buying pressure still exists. Next, focus on breaking through 79-80K. This morning, after testing 76K again and holding, the bulls are clearly stronger.
If the 4-hour chart effectively breaks below 76K, be cautious. If the 4-hour candle closes consistently below 76K, the current rebound structure will weaken significantly. The next level I will watch is 74K.
I will look for another shorting opportunity around 78.2K. If the price rises but does not break 79K, it will then break below 76K and drop to 74.8K
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