Post

The probability of a rate hike is 86.5%. The CME data is right there. But Killa posted a tweet today — he doesn't even look at the FOMC. This person shorted BTC at $74,688 in mid-April, switched to long on June 5 when the market broadly fell, and accurately predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025. He condensed his trading framework into three sentences. First sentence: Don't use news to predict direction. Killa's original words — most macro narratives are just noise. "The market doesn't move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved." Translation: Those who wait to act until the FOMC results come out have already missed the price move. The number you see is the institution's answer, not your opportunity. Second sentence: Sweeping lows is a preparatory move to reward the bulls. Killa's judgment on September 12 — BTC repeatedly hunts long positions below previous lows to clear leverage and destroy bullish confidence. After continuous sweeping lows, the final sweep will mark a local bottom. If BTC sweeps lows again after the FOMC, it's not a bear market coming. It might be the last shakeout. Wash out those who can't hold, then rise. Third sentence: The real catalyst has changed. Killa shifted the narrative weight from the FOMC to the Clarity Act. On September 15, the Senate procedural vote requires 60 votes; Republicans have only 53 seats, so Democratic support is key. Interest rates determine short-term volatility. Legislation determines the long-term ceiling. The logic behind these three sentences is the same: The bottom may have arrived, but there are traps on the way. The real signals are not in interest rates but in position structure and legislative progress. FOMC is noise. The Clarity Act is the signal. Sweeping lows is the last dip. Legislation is the long-term ceiling. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？