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On September 8, CME FedWatch showed a 60.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. A week ago, this figure was still hovering around 50%. Two weeks further back before Wash-Jackson Hole spoke—only 35%. From 35% to 60.4%, what happened in just two weeks? It's not that the U.S. economy suddenly overheated. It's not that employment suddenly boomed. It is Iran. The Fed is now caught in the middle, caught in a dilemma. Reason for not raising rates: The economy can no longer hold on. August saw its lowest consumer confidence index in seven months. Retail sales saw the largest drop in a year. The job market unexpectedly stalled, with employers cutting a net 23,000 jobs. Reason for raising rates: Inflation simply won't come down. Wash's own statement — PCE inflation has a 12-month window of 3.7%, a 6-month window of 4.1%. He summed it up in four words: "Worrisome." ” The Fed's most valued core CPI year-on-year is still stuck at 2.4%, while the core PCE annual rate may rebound to 3.4%. A 2% target? Not even the taillights are visible. But the truly fatal variable is not in the Fed's meeting room. In the Strait of Hormuz. Since July 30, the average daily passage in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from 88 to 130 vessels to about 10 vessels. Iranian crude oil exports fell by 47%. Brent crude once approached $97, while WTI crude traded around $92. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. is $4.15 per gallon, and diesel is $5.88 per gallon—all historical records. Goldman Sachs urgently raised its oil price forecast, warning that if shipping attacks intensify further, oil prices could reach $120 per barrel. Brown University's Costs of War project tracks in real time: the additional energy costs caused by the US-Iran conflict for American consumers have exceeded $100 billion, with an increase of about $1 million every two minutes. $4.14 gasoline before the midterm elections was not just an economic indicator—it was the price of the vote. Now back to the question: Does the Fed want to raise interest rates? Bank of America said: Core CPI is enough to persuade Wash to raise rates. Citi said: The forecast is slightly lower, with a difference of only 0.04 percentage points. 0.04 percentage points determines the monetary policy direction of the world's largest economy. But the real referee was neither Bank of America nor Citigroup. This is Friday's CPI data. The market generally expects August CPI to be 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Has the energy price increase driven by the Hormuz blockade really been transmitted to core inflation? At 8:30 a.m. on September 11, the answer was revealed. What does this mean for the crypto market? BTC has fallen below $80,000, trading at $79,352. If Friday's CPI exceeds expectations → the September 15-16 FOMC is almost certain to raise rates→ BTC will remain under pressure. If the CPI meets or falls short of expectations→ the probability of a rate hike falls back→ BTC may rebound violently. The CPI data for September 11 essentially answers one question: Has Iran's shells driven up inflation? If the answer is "yes," then the September 15 FOMC will be the judgment day for the crypto market. Whether the Fed wants to raise rates or not doesn't matter; data counts. And the data is being influenced by the ship volume in the Strait of Hormuz. A geopolitical conflict you can't control is deciding the rise and fall of your account. Ironic? This is the crypto market for 2026. $BTC $CL $BZ