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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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79600美元的BTC,你慌了吗? 先看表面:宏观大利空,价格却没崩。 9月3日刚冲上8.2万,9月4日非农数据一出,预期5.5万实际16.2万,超了3倍。市场直接懵了:加息概率从50%干到60%。BTC应声回落,目前在7.96万附近晃悠。从8.2万跌到7.96万,只跌了3%。 按照以前,这种数据能砸10%。 第一件事:非农超预期3倍?你以为利空,华尔街当利好。 9月4日非农就业16.2万,市场预期才5.5万。美元涨、美债收益率飙到4.8%、加息概率冲到60%——表面上全是利空。 但你换个角度想想:经济这么强,说明没衰退,企业盈利好,风险资产长期是受益的。 同一天,美国现货BTC ETF净流入7.31亿美元,BlackRock一家就干了4.54亿,创年内单日最大。近三周累计流入38亿,总规模突破1000亿。 第二件事:8.2万三次没过去,但7.9万也三次没跌破。 8月底从6.2万反弹以来,BTC一路干到8.2万。9月3日长阳突破,9月4日冲高8.2万收阴,上影线明显。 但你看下方:7.9万这个位置,跌了三次,三次都守住了。该跌不跌,就是强。 第三件事:接下来两周,是全年最关键的时刻。 9月11日CPI 和 9月15-16日FOMC,两个核弹级数据。 CPI偏软 + FOMC按兵不动 → BTC直冲8.5万+ CPI偏热 + 确认加息 → 可能回踩7.6万甚至7.2万 但加息预期已经被市场定价了60%。 如果真的加息,那是“利空落地”;如果不加息,那是“意外惊喜”。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: ETF单日流入7.31亿,创年内之最 近三周累计流入38亿,华尔街真金白银 7.9万三次跌不破,支撑确认 Strategy等企业财库重新买入 萨尔瓦多继续增持 一边是: 非农超预期3倍,加息概率回升到60% 美债收益率4.8%,强美元压制风险资产 8.2万三次过不去,多头乏力 地缘油价推高通胀预期 上方阻力:80,800-81,500 → 82,000-83,600 下方支撑:78,800-79,200 → 76,500-77,000 → 72,000-74,000 操作策略 短线选手: 79,200-79,800区间轻仓高抛低吸。偏多:回踩78,800-79,200站稳试多,目标80,800-81,500,止损78,000下方。偏空:反弹80,500-81,000遇阻轻空,目标79,000,止损81,800上方。 中线选手: 等CPI和FOMC落地。数据利好→回踩76,800-78,000布局多单,目标83,000-86,000。数据利空→等76,000甚至72,000-74,000再动手。 日线收盘跌破76,000且放量→中期转弱,先跑为敬 接下来两周,会决定下半年方向—— 非农超预期3倍,ETF单日流入7亿,你信哪个? 散户信恐慌,机构信数据。 宏观是噪音,流动性才是方向。加息预期已经打满60%,你还怕什么? 7.96万这个位置,你是恐慌割肉,还是等着加仓? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$67 DASH, are you chasing it? Look at the surface first: sharp rally followed by pullback, retail investors are conflicted. The 24-hour high hit 73-75, and the low rose from 49, with a range of over 40%. Trading volume surged to $550 million, with a turnover rate of over 60% relative to an $850 million market cap. Daily RSI is 75-86, severely overbought.   First: This surge is not DASH's own story. After the launch of the Grayscale Zcash ETF, AUM surged past $400 million, and funds began rotating from ZEC to second-tier privacy coins. DASH was boosted, but it didn't have an ETF to match it. So what is this wave? Sector beta, not fundamentals monopolized. The same scenario happened in 2021: after ZEC rose, DASH followed suit; when ZEC stopped, DASH was the first to be smashed. The second thing: this turnover rate is both a signal for capital entering the market and a retreat. Within 24 hours, it traded 550 million yuan, with a market value of only 850 million yuan and a turnover rate exceeding 60%. This kind of volume shows real money is coming in, not a dip or a rise or fall. But conversely—once sentiment dies down, the pullback speeds up just as quickly. In 2024, WIF saw similar turnover rates around $3, but then halved the following week. Volume is a double-edged sword—it can send you to the skies or crush you through the floor. Third: Two technical signals have emerged that must be taken seriously. Signal 1: Daily RSI 75-86, severely overbought. This is the aftereffect of a direct pull from 49 to 75; the short-term rise is too fast and needs to be digested. Signal 2: Contract funding rates turning positive, crowding the bulls. The total DASH perpetual turnover across the network is extremely large, with positive fees + overbought + high turnover = short-term long crowding. Historical pattern: Every time altcoins reach an extreme positive rate, a wave of cleanup occurs. Resistance above: 69-70→ 72-75→ 80-85→ 95-100 Support below: 62-64→ 56-58→ 52 (trend breakdown line) → 40-47 (deep retracement) The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you On one side: The privacy sector resonates, Zcash ETF funds spill over Evolution blocks transactions + platform upgrade, narrative updates Daily golden cross + moving average bullish alignment, mid-term bullish turnaround Trading volume surged, and funds were indeed entering the market On one side: The daily RSI is 75-86 overbought and needs to pull back to digest Funding rates turned positive, and contract long positions were crowded DASH was driven up by gains and lacked its own ETF logic If ZEC goes cold, DASH will fall even faster Operational strategy Empty positions:   Two entry points: A. Bullish trend (main strategy) Pullback to 62-64 with reduced volume stabilizes and continues long, with a more stable level at 56-58. Stop loss daily chart effectively breaks below 52, targets 72-75→80-85→95-100. B. Rebound Bearish (short-term only) Only consider a light short position after resistance at 71-75 and a high volume upper shadow. Stop loss and hold above 76, target 64→58. This is a contrarian position, so the position must be smaller. Already had multiple orders: 67 is not an increase in position, but a reduction in position. Remove 1/3 to 1/2 of the floating profit first, then move the remaining stop-loss up to 58-60. If it rises above 72 and holds steady for 4 hours, then make up for the losses. Three types of travel in the next 3-7 days: Baseline (highest probability): Fluctuate around 67, then pull back to 60-64 to decide direction. If you can hold 62, then go for 72-75. Slightly bullish: quickly pull back to 70 and hold on, target 75, then look for 80+. Requires trading volume not to be halved. Bearish: Below 62, next stop is 56-58; The daily chart falls back below 52, ending this pulse. DASH now feels like a bandwagon follower after ZEC's 2021 surge— After the Dragon Tower rises, the Dragon Er catches up. The catch-up is often the fiercest, but it's also the easiest to trap people at the peak. Would you dare to chase the 67 position? The worst thing in the crypto world isn't not missing out on the dragon head, but not getting to eat the dragon's meat, and not missing a single bite of Dragon Two's noodles. How much does your DASH cost? Will you join this round of privacy rotation? $BTC $ZEC $DASH

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