While everyone is panicking, whales may be quietly accumulating funds
Oil prices rose to $95, the bond market crashed, the probability of rate hikes surged to 65%, and BTC dropped from 81,000 to 77,000—
When these headlines are put together, do you panic?
If you're panicking, congratulations, you're a normal person.
But ordinary people usually can't make money in the crypto market.
On September 1, the United States launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran. Brent crude oil rose 4.5% over two days, breaking through $94 and approaching $95.
Global bond markets crashed simultaneously—Germany's 10-year government bond yield hit its highest since 2011, the UK hit its highest since 2008, and Japan hit its highest since 1996. The US 10-year government bond yield surged to 4.8%, the highest since January 2025.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September soared from just over 30% before Walsh's speech to 66%.
Oil prices have risen by a total of 51% this year.
All signals from traditional markets are telling you one thing: run.
Bitcoin rose 24% in August, marking its best single-month performance since November 2024. It once surged to $81,500, marking a 15-week high.
And then? After Walsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, BTC fell below $78,000. It is currently fluctuating in the $77,000-$79,000 range.
ETF funds also ran into trouble—after nine consecutive days of net inflows, September 1 saw a net outflow of $202 million for the first time. Yesterday (September 2), another $236 million outflow.
On the surface, it seems that all the good news has been released, prices can't rise, and it's time to leave.
But—pay attention to this "but"—
On-chain data tells the exact opposite story.
CryptoQuant data shows that over the past 60 days, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have accumulated a net total of 73,300 BTC, the highest since April 21.
Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 43,300 BTC during the same period.
What does that mean?
Based on $77,000, these whales have quietly bought over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past two months.
You see the headline panicking, quietly taking over.
On September 2, a whale address starting with 0xe2ad executed the first batch of orders from a preset $60 million buy plan.
At an average price of $76,499, 121.53 BTC was purchased, worth about $9.3 million.
Moreover, this address has 17 unfilled limit orders and plans to buy another 671 BTC in the $75,479 to $76,245 price range, totaling about $50.88 million.
See that?
Retail investors panic selling, and whales place buy orders at $75,000–76,000.
Who is picking up whose plate?
The Panic Greed Index has dropped from 81 last week to 62. Market sentiment is cooling down, and retail investors are panicking.
However, the number of whale wallets reached a six-month high in August, with 90 addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC.
Retail investors are selling, whales are buying.
This is no coincidence. This is the classic script of the crypto market—always like this.
So just how "real" is this round of macro panic?
To be honest, it was quite frightening.
If oil prices remain above $90, inflationary pressure will spread from the energy sector to broader consumer goods prices. Among the Fed's preferred inflation indicators, 54% of goods have seen year-on-year increases of more than 3%, far above the historical average of 32%.
The September 11 CPI data, the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting—two super bombs lined up waiting to explode.
If CPI exceeds expectations and the Fed does raise rates, the market could drop again.
These risks are real, and I'm not trying to fool you by saying "it's fine."
But what is the core of reverse thinking?
It's not about ignoring risk, but about judging whether risk has already been priced in.
Oil prices have risen to $95—the market already knows this.
66% chance of a rate hike—the market already knows this.
Bond market crash—the market already knows it.
All this "bad news" is already written into the price.
So what hasn't been priced yet?
The September 11 CPI may indicate that inflation is under control—this was not priced in.
Oil prices may have been just a geopolitical sudden event, then fell as the situation eased—this was not priced.
Whales bought $9 billion worth of BTC in the past 60 days—even less priced.
In March 2020, the pandemic broke out, the US stock market circuit breaker caused Bitcoin to drop 40% in one day. Everyone was selling.
The whale is buying.
In November 2022, FTX collapsed, and Bitcoin dropped to $15,000. Everyone was saying "cryptocurrency is dead."
The whale is buying.
In August 2024, Japan's interest rate hike triggered global carry trade unwinding, causing Bitcoin to crash to $49,000. Everyone was panicking.
The whale is buying.
And then?
And every time, the price has come back.
It's not that whales are smarter, but that whales can withstand panic better.
Going against the flow does not mean being blind.
The current strategy is simple—
First, don't be scared off by headlines. Oil prices, bond markets, interest rate hikes—these are noise, not signals.
Second, keep an eye on on-chain data. If whales are buying, it means some people think the price isn't expensive.
Third, before the September 11 CPI data is released, take a light position in batches. Leave your bullets for after uncertainty dissipates.
The most panicked moments often correspond to the most cost-effective entry points.
But the premise is—you have to have bullets.
"Others fear me, but I am greedy"—this is a phrase everyone memorizes.
But those who can truly achieve it are always a few.
Because greed is not a strategy, but an anti-human ability.
When your group is shouting "Run!"
When your Twitter homepage is filled with "Bitcoin is about to drop to 60,000,"
When you see your account starting to shake with floating losses—
Ask yourself:
Is what you want to do now the same as 90% of people?
If so, then you're most likely losing money.
$BTC$CL$BZ #霍尔木兹风险升温, energy inflation is under scrutiny
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