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Gold at $4,380, are you ready to bottom-fish? Let's look at the surface first: hawks are terrifying, and the dollar is as fierce as a tiger. Over the past week, gold fell from 4700 to 4380, a drop of nearly 7%. Today, it plunged directly from 4452, hitting a low of 4364, and is currently barely surviving near 4385. But the 100-day moving average is 4366, and today's low is 4364, just 2 points away. It held firm. The medium- to long-term upward channel remains intact, with the 50-day moving average at 4218 and the 100-day moving average at 4366 holding up below. A pullback is your chance to get in—don't be scared off. First thing: Are rate hike expectations scary? The market overreacted. What did Fed Chair Kevin Warsh say at Jackson Hole? PCE inflation is 3.7%, 6-month 4.1%, and is still accelerating. "If there is not enough confidence in inflation returning to 2%, there is still work to be done." With just a few sentences, the market pushed the probability of a rate hike in September from 30% to 60%, the US dollar index soared, and gold took a heavy blow. Interest rates were cut three times in 2025, and now the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%. Economic growth is just over 2%, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Raising rates in this environment? Does the Fed really want to collapse the economy? The market overinterpreted hawkish remarks, and gold fell 7%. The second thing: You're scared by short-term noise, while the central bank quietly hoards stocks. Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end gold target of 4,900 and expects the central bank's average monthly gold purchase in 2026 to be 50 tons, far above pre-2022 levels. ETFs and retail investors are selling, central banks are buying. The narrative of de-dollarization hasn't changed. Middle East conflicts, Strait of Hormuz risk, global geopolitical rifts—which one has disappeared? Oil prices are rising, inflation expectations are heating up, the dollar is strengthening in the short term—but these are just noise. Third: A signal from the technical side that must be taken seriously. Today, the daily chart hit a low of 4364, and the 100-day moving average is 4366—a precise rebound after touching it. This is no coincidence. The 4380 area was a multi-tested support level in July-August, and now it has been held again. The daily level remains within the ascending channel, with the medium-term structure intact. Although the 4-hour and 1-hour periods are bearish, they plunged from 4461 to 4364, down nearly $100, indicating short-term oversold signals. The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you On one side: The 100-day moving average at 4366 is firmly holding firm, providing effective technical support The central bank purchases an average of 50 tons of gold per month, with very strong fundamentals Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end target of 4900, but institutions did not retreat It fell from 4700 to 4385, a 7% decrease, indicating short-term oversoldness De-dollarization + Middle Eastern geopolitics—the long-term logic hasn't changed On one side: Fed hawkish speech, probability of rate hike rises to 60% The US dollar index strengthened, and US Treasury yields climbed Today it plunged 1.5%, with weak short-term momentum If JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, another round of sell-offs may occur Resistance above: 4400-4430 → 4450-4460→ 4530 (200-day moving average) → 4600 Support below: 4360-4370 → 4320-4300→ 4218 (50-day moving average) → 4100 Operational strategy Short-term players: If a clear stop signal appears between 4360-4370, you can lightly enter a long position, with a stop loss at 4320 and a target of 4400-4430. If the rebound between 4410-4435 shows stagnation, you can lightly short with a stop loss above 4450, targeting 4360. Data traders: Tonight, JOLTS and ISM are the biggest variables. Data is weak→ 4400 holds the rebound; Data is hot→ may break below and accelerate downward. Mid-line layout: Buying positions on dips in batches within the 4300-4250 range, with the logic being the central bank's continued gold purchases + de-dollarization. Goldman Sachs' year-end target of 4900 remains intact, but the path is more tortuous. This pullback in gold is just a "stress test" for a bull market— 99% of people think "if rates are raised, gold will crash," but the central bank quietly bought stocks, with Goldman Sachs maintaining the 4900 target. On the day 4364 guards it, you'll discover: It turns out it's not that gold is bad, but that you always cut losses at the lowest point. How much does your gold cost? At 4385, do you dare to bottom-fish? $BTC $XAU $XAUT #BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold