With revenue surging 372% and a massive buyback of 14 billion yuan, SanDisk's stock price actually crashed by 8%—what is the market really afraid of?
After Wednesday's market closed in the US Eastern Time, SanDisk's earnings call was held like a funeral.
Revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were $39.25, up 135 times from $0.29 a year ago. Gross margin was 84.6%, up from 26.2% a year ago.
The board also approved a new buyback plan worth $14 billion, pushing total buyback authorizations to $15.5 billion.
And then?
After hours, it once dropped 8%.
During regular trading hours, it had already dropped 5.4%, and after hours, it was added to the market. In just one day, over a billion dollars in market value were gone.
Do you know someone like this—so excited by financial reports that they can't sleep, but when they open their accounts, they're completely stunned?
Where did the problem lie?
Guidance.
SanDisk has projected next quarter revenue guidance of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion. Wall Street is looking for $10.8 billion.
That's a difference of 250 million.
With just this 250 million, the market has sentenced him to death.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider reiterated a buy rating after the market closed, with a target price of $2,200. Among 30 Wall Street analysts, 25 recommended buy, with an average target price of $2,433.
But it was useless. The stock price should fall, but it still falls.
What's even more heartbreaking is that SanDisk itself knows where the problem lies.
The financial report clearly states: fourth-quarter revenue growth was partly due to increased sales volume, and two-thirds from price increases.
Translated into plain language: Good performance isn't because you sell a lot, but because you sell at a higher price.
Data center business accounted for only 12% of the company's shipments a year ago, but now it's down to 38%. AI customers are scrambling to buy them, and SanDisk's 2026 capacity is already sold out.
But the market is now asking another question: How long can the price increase?
SanDisk's answer is: next quarter's gross margin guidance is 83%–85%, basically flat, showing signs of peaking.
Even more severe is the long-term perspective.
SanDisk signed eight long-term NBM agreements, guaranteeing a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion. More than half of the supply will be locked in 2027, and two-thirds in 2028.
Sounds solid, right?
But looking at it another way: long-term agreements lock in a price ceiling.
SanDisk expects the global NAND market size to exceed $300 billion by 2026 and nearly $500 billion by 2027. The pie is growing, but what about SanDisk's market share? Counterpoint data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, SanDisk's global NAND market share will only be 13%.
No matter how big the cake is, there are more knives to cut it.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin—all four are expanding production. Changxin just went public on the A-share market, with a market value of 3.31 trillion. SK Hynix just went public on Nasdaq in July, raising $26.5 billion.
In the capital market, every penny is betting on the same story: AI storage.
The question is—when everyone is betting on the same story, how much longer can it last?
To be honest in the end.
SanDisk's financial report itself is fine; what's problematic is the market's expectations.
The stock price has risen 470% this year. 30 analysts and 25 buy recommendations. The market has already played out the script of "sustained growth in AI storage demand" to the extreme.
Any "imperfect" signal is amplified as evidence of a "cycle peak."
SanDisk's CEO said during the call: "In the past, we could only predict demand within three months; now we hold procurement volumes locked in for over four years." ”
But the market can't even tolerate a quarterly guidance falling short of expectations.
This is not Sandy's problem.
This is the problem of the entire AI sector—expectations are running far faster than reality.
A 372% revenue increase is not enough, an EPS increase of 135 times is not enough, and a 14 billion yuan buyback is not enough.
What the market wants is: to keep rising forever.
$BTC$SNDK$XSNDK #闪迪财报双超预期, a new $14 billion buyback authorization was added
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