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$BTC has reclaimed $80K, and I remain moderately bullish in the mid-term. But I’m not chasing the move. The Fed rate-hike risk is already heavily priced in, yet the dollar remains relatively contained. The variable I’m watching closely is the yen. If Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, yen-funded carry trades can become less attractive. Higher funding costs plus FX losses could force global risk positions to unwind. That means BTC traders shouldn’t watch DXY alone.