PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

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BTC answered the question: $80,000, for the first time since May. Then the 50-week moving average said not yet, stalling the move near $81,100. Spot demand has held up. US spot BTC ETFs logged six straight inflow sessions through Monday, when $337.6M lifted the run to about $2.26B. Tuesday's provisional tally was also positive, but still incomplete. Corporate treasuries kept moving too. BitMine disclosed another 32,447 ETH acquired over the prior week, taking its holdings to about 5.85M ETH. The hesitation is about the calendar. July PCE lands later today, with core expected around 3.2%-3.3% YoY, still uncomfortable against the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Warsh speaks Friday at 10AM in his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair. Running Aug 27 to 29, this year's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." The Kansas City Fed explicitly named cryptocurrencies and stablecoins among the innovations under discussion. Crypto is not the sideshow this year. It is part of the symposium's formal scope. Before PCE, markets price roughly a 38% chance of a September hike. Warsh has also avoided forward guidance, so what he leaves unsaid may matter as much as what he says. Going into the breakout, VanEck's Aug 11 snapshot showed a split message: · Put premiums rose 42% to $551.8M, lifting the put/call premium ratio to an extreme 2.30 · Call OI rose 5% to $19.1B, while put OI fell 11.5% to $10.8B · Weekly perp funding cooled to +3.8% annualized, about half its long-run average The signal was defensive, not outright bearish: traders paid heavily for protection even as OI tilted further toward calls. Hedged, not capitulating. Mark Sep 15: the CLARITY Act faces its next Senate procedural vote the same day the FOMC meeting begins. Macro and regulation collide on one date. So the market's answer is "hold, but hedged." What's your plan into Friday: holding through the speech, or de-risking first? #BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole

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Last week we asked whether the move was a squeeze. Five straight ETF inflow sessions show that ETF buying continued after the initial squeeze. US spot BTC and ETH ETFs ended the week with their strongest combined inflows since October 2025: · BTC ETFs attracted $1.92B across five positive sessions, including $606M on Thursday and $307M on Friday · ETH ETFs added about $697M, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing roughly $537M · Combined trading volume reached about $29B, more than triple the previous week The pattern lasted through all five US trading sessions, but it is not a final verdict on demand. At Friday's close, BTC ETF net assets stood near $96.1B, equal to about 6.2% of Bitcoin's market value and approaching the $100B mark. Two details matter: · Concentration: IBIT captured about $1.33B, or 69% of weekly BTC inflows. ETHA accounted for roughly 77% of ETH inflows. The flows were strong, but breadth remains the next test · Persistence: BTC ETFs remained about $2.9B in net outflows for 2026, while ETH ETFs were roughly $192M negative Relative to their asset bases, ETH recorded the higher inflow ratio. Weekly inflows equaled about 4.9% of ETH ETF net assets, versus roughly 2.0% for BTC. The rally broadened beyond the two largest assets too. BTC recorded its biggest weekly gain since March 2024, while XRP gained nearly 40%. BTC reached roughly $79,500 on Friday, touched a weekend low near $75,600 and traded around $77,000 on Monday. The latest completed US ETF session was Aug 21. Aug 24 flow data will follow after the US close. The next macro test arrives Friday, when Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair. Which matters more for BTC this week: persistent ETF demand or Warsh's policy tone? #BTCETFInflowsSurge

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Yesterday we asked: rally or squeeze? The market just gave its first answer. $BTC topped $75,000 on OKX spot within 24 hours, extending Wednesday’s breakout. More than $3 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated over 24 hours, per Coinglass. Flows strengthened too. Spot BTC ETFs logged three straight days of inflows, with Wednesday bringing: · $517M net inflows, the biggest single day since early May · IBIT $284.7M · ARKB + FBTC about $140M combined Analysts read the move as longer-horizon institutional positioning, not retail FOMO. On-chain, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 20,000+ BTC since July 29, worth about $1.2B at the time. But exchange supply is rebuilding: around 28,000 BTC returned by mid-August, reversing roughly 84% of the prior six-week drain. That weakens the supply-squeeze case, even if exchange deposits do not automatically mean selling. Policy added fuel. At Wednesday’s White House meeting, Trump said government purchases of “sizable” amounts of BTC “has been talked about” and again pushed Congress on the CLARITY Act. Estimates put US holdings near 328,000 BTC, almost all from seizures, with no publicly documented open-market purchase. Regulators are moving too: · SEC proposed its crypto offering framework · CFTC Chair Selig directed staff to explore market rules if Congress keeps stalling Positioning is still the question. Futures OI has rebounded toward the top of its recent range, while funding remains positive without spiking. On July 31, the $60,000 put was Deribit’s largest strike at $1.17B in notional OI. Traders had built heavy downside protection and got a breakout instead. ETH is up close to 5%, with ADA and SOL following. Jackson Hole is less than a week away. Whales accumulated early, ETFs accelerated and policy is turning. But exchange supply is rebuilding and conviction above $75K still needs proving. Squeeze fuel burns out fast. Real demand does not. #BTCRallyOrSqueeze