#30YYieldHits2007High

معلومات مهمة مزامنة لفترة وجيزة 1. من المتوقع أن يكون هناك تقدم كبير في مضيق هرمز هذا الأسبوع أي تقدم سيعود بالنفع فورا على أسواق الأسهم اليابانية والكورية يمكنك الاتصال $KORU $SOXL مباشرة هنا النفط الخام هو أيضا أكبر تهديد للتضخم في اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية التغيرات النسبية في المضيق سيكون لها تأثير عكسي نسبي على السوق 2. سأكون مع الجميع بالكامل في مزاد الخزانة الأمريكية لعشر سنوات في الساعة 1:00 صباحا يوم الأربعاء قد يكون هذا المزاد الذي يستمر عشر سنوات هو الأهم في الربع وهذا سيوجه ما إذا كان السوق يتجه نحو الركود 3. تشير بيانات التوظيف إلى مؤشر أسعار المستهلك ومؤشر PPI التي أرسلت إلى عدم وجود زيادات في أسعار الفائدة (CPI)، لكن انخفاض بيانات المستهلكين الأسبوع الماضي أثار مخاوف السوق بشأن الركود، وانخفاض اليوم ليس استثناء 4. هذا الانخفاض غير مرتبط بالدفاع قبل التقرير عن NVDA؛ هذه المرة يكون التراجع مدفوعا أكثر بالدفاع عن الركود طريقة تحوط نموذجية 5. يبقى الذهب أصلا مهما على المدى الطويل 6. التركيز على استضافة قمة العملات الرقمية في البيت الأبيض يوم الأربعاء، بحضور هيئة الأوراق المالية والبورصات، ولجنة تداول السلع الآجلة، وقادة شركات العملات الرقمية مثل كوينبيس، روبنهود، ريبل، وجيميني. قال مات هوغان، كبير مسؤولي الاستثمار في Bitwise، إن الترميز قد يصبح محور رئيسي للقمة. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

ONE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE US TREASURY ADDED $1.2 TRILLION TO PRECIOUS METALS AND CRYPTO IN 3 HOURS. Bond yields, the dollar, gold, silver and crypto all moved violently at the same moment today. Every one of those moves traces back to a single press release. THE TREASURY DOUBLED ITS BOND BUYBACKS The US government runs a program where it buys back its own older bonds from dealers. It started in May 2024 to fix a specific problem. When the government issues a new 30 year bond, that bond trades actively. But the ones issued before it, called off the run bonds, barely trade at all. They make up about 98% of all Treasuries outstanding. Dealers hold them, struggle to sell them, and demand a higher yield to take on new ones. Today the Treasury said it will at least double its buybacks in the 10 to 30 year part of the market, from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, running from September 9 to November 4. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. A buyer that size lifts prices, so yields fall. The 30 year yield had hit 5.337% yesterday, the highest since 2007. Within an hour of the announcement it crashed to 5.18%. Treasury framed it as routine support for market liquidity. But this is because they fear the pain of 5% or higher yields on the long end, and that with three months until the midterm elections they have had to grab into the toolkit. WHY THE US CANNOT AFFORD THESE YIELDS ? The US has spent $1.4 trillion on interest alone over the last 12 months. Borrowing costs have more than doubled since 2020. On the current path that bill hits $1.7 trillion a year by November 2028, at which point interest becomes the single largest item in the federal budget, larger than Social Security. For those costs to simply stop rising, the US 5 year yield needs to fall to 3.25%. That is a 110 basis point drop, and it would only freeze interest at $1.4 trillion. It would not cut a dollar. The reason is refinancing. The OECD expects governments to borrow a record $18 trillion in 2026, and 78% of that is not new spending. It is replacing debt that already exists. Those old bonds carry interest rates from a cheaper era, roughly 2 percentage points below today's yields. Every rollover resets the cost higher. That is the loop. The longer yields stay here, the more of the debt stock reprices upward, and the faster interest costs climb. AND THIS IS HAPPENING TO EVERY GOVERNMENT AT ONCE The Bloomberg Global Long Bond Index yield has surged to around 4.2%, its highest since July 2008. Long term government borrowing costs are back at financial crisis levels while governments carry far more debt than they did then. German long dated yields hit a 15 year high. France hit an 18 year high. The UK is at its highest since 1998. South Korea set an all time record. Canada is at its highest since 2010. JAPAN IS THE PART NOBODY IS PRICING Japan's 10 year yield pushed toward 3%, a level not seen since 1996. Its 2 year is at a 31 year high and its 5 year set a record. For three decades Japanese yields were near zero, so Japanese pension funds, insurers and banks sent enormous amounts of money abroad chasing returns. That money bought US and European government debt. Japan is now the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries at roughly $1.2 trillion, ahead of the UK at $897 billion and China at $693 billion. Now Japanese investors can earn 3% at home with no currency risk. The incentive to hold foreign bonds disappears. If that money starts coming home, the largest single foreign buyer of US debt steps away at the exact moment the US needs to refinance more of it than ever. That is why the Bank of Japan's next move matters to yields in Washington and Berlin, not just Tokyo. WHAT HAPPENED THE MOMENT YIELDS FELL ? Gold, silver and crypto pay no interest. When a government bond pays 5.34%, holding them costs you that yield instead. When yields dropped, that cost collapsed, and money rotated straight back in. The move started within minutes of the announcement. - Gold rose 3.10% to $4,500, adding $934 billion. - Silver rose 4.14%, adding $136 billion. - Bitcoin rose 7.80%, gaining $4,400 in just 50 minutes and adding $103 billion. - Ethereum rose 10% to a two month high, adding $22 billion. The dollar index fell 0.71% to below 98.77, its first time there since May. Because all of these assets are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar pushes them higher again. The buybacks do not start for three more weeks but markers are already pricing lower yields.

#30YYieldHits2007High Higher bond yields don't just affect Wall Street. They quietly raise the cost of almost everything, from mortgages to AI data centers. That's why I'm paying attention to the 30-year Treasury. Expensive money changes how fast companies can grow. Could high yields become the biggest headwind for risk assets?

The scale of US debt continues to expand, increasing pressure on long-term bond issuance. Inflation remains above the 2% target, with both supply and demand pushing long-term yields higher. In June, the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings; overseas buyers are retreating, and new bond issuance can only be absorbed by domestic funds, which will only raise costs.$BTC $xSNDK $ETH #XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals

Long-term US borrowing costs just broke a 19-year ceiling. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, its highest since 2007. Last week’s $25B auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest 30-year auction yield since 2001. This is bigger than the next Fed decision. The curve is bear-steepening, with shorter-dated yields relatively steadier while the long end sells off. That points to a repricing of long-term inflation, Treasury supply, real rates and the extra return investors demand to lock up money for three decades. As of August 17, the 30-year real yield stood at 3.06%, its highest since 2008. That raises the hurdle for non-yielding assets and tightens long-term financial conditions even if the Fed leaves its policy rate unchanged. The impact spreads across markets: · Bonds: higher yields mean lower prices and greater duration risk · Economy: mortgage rates and long-term corporate financing costs can stay elevated without another Fed hike · Gold: $XAU and $XAUT have shown resilience despite the higher real-yield hurdle · Crypto: BTC can face a tougher liquidity backdrop, while debt and the long-term fiscal outlook remain part of the market’s broader BTC narrative The driver matters. A rise led by stronger growth and real yields can pressure gold and high-beta assets. A rise led by inflation, supply or fiscal risk can produce a different response, with bonds, gold and BTC reacting differently. Does 5.3% mark a lasting shift in long-term borrowing costs, or a temporary repricing of inflation and fiscal risk? #30YYieldHits2007High

BTC’s 1% gain while ETH stays nearly flat is a signal of selective risk appetite, not a broad crypto rebound. With the 30-year yield at its highest since 2007 and expectations shifting away from a September hike, markets are pricing a complicated mix of persistent term premium and a softer policy path. My read is that BTC can retain relative strength in this setup, but the lack of confirmation from ETH argues against treating today’s move as a durable risk-on turn. Gold’s bullish options positioning points to the same preference for scarce, liquid assets over indiscriminate beta. Not advice, just analysis.

Lofty Market-Reversion Risks vs. Volatility Season Whether the stock market, US Treasury 30-year yields and gold can stay at lofty levels on Aug. 18 into year-end may be a top question of 2026. My bias is to heed Bitcoin, the leader since 2009, and the lessons of relative value. If the T-bond yield remains above 2003's mark near 5.07%, 2026 will have the highest year-end level since 2001. Full report on the Bloomberg here: {BI COMD} #gold #Bitcoin #bonds #stockmarket @Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates in July, but the long-term bond market did it for them. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007; the 10-year yield also reached about 4.72%. Seeing this, my first reaction is not "high yields are great," but rather: how expensive must funding become before lenders are willing to keep lending to the US?#XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals

I am Cige. The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to the 5.29% to 5.32% range, hitting a new high since 2007. The 10-year yield has also reached 4.72%. Long-term rates are breaking through the ceiling of the past decade-plus. The scale of US debt continues to expand, increasing pressure on long-term bond issuance. Inflation remains above the 2% target, with both supply and demand pushing long-term yields higher. In June, the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings; oversea

Long-term US borrowing costs are surging. The 30Y Treasury yield broke above 5.3%, its highest since 2007, while the 30Y real yield hit 3.06%—the highest since 2008. The curve is bear-steepening, pointing to rising concerns around inflation, Treasury supply, real rates and fiscal risk. Higher long-term yields could keep mortgages and corporate funding costs elevated, pressure BTC and other risk assets, and raise the hurdle for gold. #30YYieldHits2007High #XiaomiEarningsWatch #BitMine5.8METH