المنشور

#PCEToJacksonHole US core PCE inflation rose 3.3% year over year in July, matching both the previous reading and market expectations, while the monthly increase was 0.2%. Second-quarter GDP growth remained at an annualized 1.5%. The combination shows that inflation is no longer accelerating sharply, but it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target while economic growth is relatively modest. Attention now turns to Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Markets want to know whether persistent inflation is enough to justify another rate increase or whether slower growth supports keeping policy unchanged. September hike expectations edged higher following the data, but Warsh’s policy framework may matter more than one economic release. A hawkish message could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold and crypto, while a balanced tone may support risk assets. Clear guidance would reduce uncertainty; vague guidance could increase volatility across bonds, equities and Bitcoin.